Ségolène rocks as Sarkozy turns left

You remember Ségolène Royal, the Socialist candidate who was defeated by Nicolas Sarkozy in the run-off for the French presidency last year. Last night, Ségo relaunched her faltering run for the Socialist leadership with a bizarre show at a Paris venue normally used for pop concerts.

Her performance at the Zénith was distinctly odd, a flaky mix of rock and religious gathering.

In a way it was a response to the other bizarre spectacle of the past week -- Sarkozy recasting himself as Emile Zola, defender of the downtrodden workers and scourge of the capitalist classes.

Royal, 55, who is down in the polls and increasingly a figure of mockery, has transformed her act. Instead of her Joan-of-Arc white, she was wearing cool jeans and a long shirt as she harangued 3,500 of her faithful and presented a string of musical acts. He hair had been curled. She had been heavily coached to loosen up her body language. She strutted and gesticulated, more rock queen than politician and she looked pretty good.

But her message was the same one that lost her the election: She has been anointed by some mystical power to lead the French people to salvation; she is the victim of betrayal and persection by rivals in the bedraggled Socialist party. She did not even mention the word Socialist although she wants to be chosen party leader in November and run again for the presidency. 

"I am here today. I will be there tomorrow. Nothing will make me retreat from the path that I have chosen. Never have I knelt in submission. Never have I thought of giving up."

The crowd loved it, but for non-believers, it seemed that Saint Ségo has truly lost the plot Henri Emmanuelli, one of party barons, said the show was more like a cult communion. Laurent Fabius called it "show-biz, not politics". An IFOP poll in today's Journal du Dimanche confirmed how much stardom Royal has lost since the presidential race. She is running well behind Bertrand Delanoe, the Paris Mayor and Martine Aubry, the uncharismatic Mayor of Lille, in the affections of both the public and Socialist supporters. Forty three percent of Socialists want Delanoe to run the party but only 24 percent want Royal. Among the public at large, the figure is 18 percent for Royal.

I mentioned the other day how the Socialists have failed to score any advantage with the economic crisis and the discrediting of the liberal financial system. There was proof in another poll, by CSA for le Parisien today. Asked whom they trusted to limit the damage to France, only 26 percent chose the Socialist opposition, compared with 47 percent who still have faith in Sarkozy's administration. Sixty-seven percent said that they did not trust the Socialists.

That is quite remarkable, given Sarko's continuing unpopularity and France's traditional hostility to business and the Socialists' creed of state intervention and welfare protection. 

Sarkozy, the pro-American friend of France's business world, has as usual manouevered fast to grab the advantage. He has donned the left's own clothes, posing as protector of the citizen against the ravages of the financial market place.

"The idea of an all-powerful market without any rules and any political intervention is mad. Self-regulation is finished. Laissez faire is finished. The all-powerful market that is always right is finished."

Sarko also won plaudits in Europe when he called in the United Nations last week for the punishment -- presumably imprisonment -- of those responsible for the market melt-down. Of course he made no suggestion on how to achieve this.

To be fair, Sarko did argue that the credit collapse was not a crisis of capitalism. The market just needs to be policed in the way that French governments have been doing since the middle ages. That's part of why the French Left is not profiting more from the mess. The French right, including Sarkozy and the Gaullist family from which he emerged, have never given up the tradition of dirigisme and state management of the economy. The French approach no longer looks so old-fashioned and 20th century as it did only a few weeks ago.

One leading French Socialist is enjoying saying 'I told you so'. In his first comment on the past week's upheaval, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund, claimed victory for his creed of regulation.

"The dominant ideology was for the regulation of the markets by the market itself. I think it's finished. The ideology of self-regulation has been smashed by events. The state and its authority are back,"  he told JDD newspaper.   

He may be in Washington, but DSK, as he is known, has his eye on the French presidency next time round, in 2012. An opinion poll in le Parisien today puts him at the top of the list as France's favourite potential Socialist candidate -- far ahead of Ségolène Royal.

Comments

[Bernard Pereire]

I watched the Sego show. Bizarre, as you say. Sarkozy is actually doing better now that things are difficult. He has been able to scrap the election promises to raise purchasing power and is now action man the crisis manager.

[Terry]

"The market just needs to be policed in the way that French governments have been doing since the middle ages."

Really? As I said in a recent post, it would be nice if France (or the US) had a free market before we blame the crisis on it. With massive government intervention in farm subsidies, airbus, laws on grocery stores, etc, can anyone truly say the market is free?

And on policing, who does the policing? Politicians who receive most of their political funding from the regulated. Now there is someone I want watching the henhouse. Then there is the question of what regulations are going to be imposed. Unfortunately, most regulations involve fighting the last lost war.

As to Sarko's flip flop, it does not surprise me. Most politicians have no center. They take up positions that they sort of agree with and that they think might get them elected. But they dont normally have any true ideology.

[Terry]

Perhaps, Sego will host next year's MTV awards.

[azloon]

sego looks marvelous, as always. best looking female presidential candidate on the planet. but a bit of a 'ditz.'

i am not sure what the connection is to sarah palin, but there is definitely something there. sarah and sego both have a theatrical presence which suggests some sort of place in the public eye (reality tv?) but not national politics, i'm afraid.

re sarko

ol' five-brains clearly is 'pulling a mccain' with his dramatic rush to condemn u.s. financial practice. we're such an easy target right now that it's a bit of a cheap shot from our so-called 'friend' (you can understand why americans shudder to consider the notion of french 'enemies').

his grandstanding on the issue of regulation might well wait a few days until we find out if anything remains to be regulated.

[richard.jones]

Since 1918 we've had competition between the French protectionist, dirigiste, statist model and the US free-market, laissez-faire model.
The French model has never worked very well at all, but the stronger US model has been through two demonstrable crisis. The first crisis affected France and Europe, but the 'reparations' tangle made the impact less clear. This current market implosion will affect France and Europe very, very savagely: Europe has seen but the first glimmers of disaster so far.
Thus France is crowing, with some justification. It is a pedestrian, low-performer, more secure system versus a good performing, prone to occasional disaster system.
I would send both governments a copy of 'Markets and their place' by Herbert Marshall (the economist - Mr. Kinsley .-)) not the actor.
And hope both governments can see a middle way.

[Romain]

Watching part od Sego's show reminded me of the Moon sect, filling stadiums, frightening!
If I had to advise her, I would strongly suggest she took the Quebec accent, thus being a perfect clone of Celine Dion in the "Titanic" song.
Azloon
The same who complain about regulation are the same who deregulated the financial markets four years ago. Who do they expect to feed their credit cards, Santa Klaus ?
I found Nancy Pelosi quite remarkable in crisis management, why don't we have a Nancy Pelosi in France ?

[rockinred]

Oh Terry, what rich entertainment you provide for us! The US has a near-terminal crisis, France doesn't. The US is in crisis precisely because of lamebrain free-market economics letting loose a motley crew of carpetbaggers, unscrupulous greedmongers and downright idiots to have their way with the US public. Now, in the great American tradition of snake-oil salesmen, you seem to be saying that too much regulation is the problem, not too little. Even Adam Smith - oft-quoted but I suspect little read by free-market groupies - was very clear that markets need firm regulation. France is and always has been more sensible than the USA in this respect - and as CB points out, it's a policy that no longer looks quite so out of tune with the times.

[Rick]

TERRY, AZLOON,

Your versions on the subject are so much better than mine. But you might like to see your points of view backed up in ‘Limey’. (And this sure ain’t no snotty way of saying proper English!)

CHARLES,

Thank you for this so vivid piece. I don’t know that I can altogether agree with your final paragraph, where you paint too rosy a picture of the ‘dirigiste’ state. Just as the ‘Credit Crunch’ was made possible by ‘warping’ the delicate equipoise of ‘the market place’ (politicians wanting cheap credit for voters), so, in the French instance, the ‘dirigiste’ state has and still does too often distort the market conditions: the Common Agricultural Policy, to name but several instances.

The French state has interfered in the economy to its heart’s content, with predictable consequences. Will the names ‘Crédit lyonnais’ and ‘Elf’ suffice for 20 or so more examples? ‘Autrement dit’ this is a matter upon which the French President’s ‘credit’ (so to speak!) isn’t of the soundest. ‘Présomptueux, moi?’; ‘Oui, monsieur le Président’.

The French way is a protectionist one. I don’t think the French state has yet learned the fine art of impartial refereeing.

[richard.jones]

@Romain,

Because the ordinary person in France has been so indoctrinated since 1804 by the concept of a 'wise' governing élite that will not enslave them. Thus France's ruling élite have never been challenged, or questioned or been forced to show the same level of public accountability as in the USA.

[Robert Marchenoir]

The "I told you so" tune, coming from French leftists, is a fraud.

Just because international finance needs to be regulated does not mean we should continue to fund, out of taxpayers' money, here in France, millions of civil servants micro-managing every move of ordinary citizens, nor tens of thousands of so-called "associations", squandering subsidies and keeping useless people on a a hidden state payroll, without any public control whatsoever.

Also, the Left is, for a significant part, responsible for the current debacle. Anti-racism is the primary cause of the subprime meltdown.

It's because the United States government wanted to stop the so-called discrimination against Blacks and Hispanics trying to get a mortgage that regulations were passed, pressuring lenders into disregarding homebuyers' credit unworthiness.

One of the lessons of the crisis is that discrimination is a Good Thing.

Discrimination used to be a virtue. Since the Left took over any sensible thinking, it has turned into a capital sin.

Maybe the current events will make people realize that you should really refuse a mortgage to someone who cannot convincigly demonstrate he is able to repay it, even if he's black or "disadvantaged".

Ditto for a job (there's no "right" to be hired if there's no reason to believe you will be up to the task), accomodation (there's no "right" to be chosen as a tenant if you cannot persuade an owner of your good faith), education (there's no "right" to grades if you cannot compete academically), etc.

Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic about such a reckoning.

There's a good chance that the obscene greed of a tiny minority of financial operators (as compared to the general population) will serve as a good excuse for millions of small-time fat cats to keep on robbing what modest wealth the ordinary French citizen has been able to muster by his own tough work.

[martin]

the problem in the U.S. is not one of too few regulations, but of the wrong regulations: the government has promoted -- no, required -- that loans be made to minorities and poor, and to do so, lowered the requirements of getting loans, then the government purchases those loans as securties via Freddie and Fannie (government backed entities) which fueled the growth of those type of loans (because they were backed by the government), all of which was fine when property prices went up, but exploded when the prices went down .....

[rocket]

Rockinred

"Oh Terry, what rich entertainment you provide for us! The US has a near-terminal crisis, France doesn't."

Of course not Rockinred! At the first signs of rocky finances the French gov't steps in thus manipulating the market. Et voilà vos impots! Either direct or indirect.

Remember Air France. They should have been out of business. SNCF - Got a debt? Well just create a new entity (RFF) and transfer the debt to this new company. Et voilà, no more SNCF debt. Economic Patriotism anyone. I can go on and on but I do have a day job.

Yes, I do believe the market needs a degree of regulation but not the interference that we see in france where today major players (former and current monopolies)are French because they were "sauvé en extremis" by their government. The world should do the same to thwart the onslaught of this "bastard capitalism" which is in force here.

PS - France will not escape this crisis, but we may never know the severity of it.

CB - Sarkozy turns left. No! Sarkozy born left. Show me a right politician in France and I'll show you a closet socialist.

[Heinz Koenig]

Reading your blog from a somewhat outside position, may I say that things can get a bit boaring as the same wise men and girls step in and dominate the discussion on just about every subject or theme. They must be allwissend as they have an educated opinion on just every subject CB puts up for discussion. I guess we know their points of view by now as the tonality of their voiced opinion never changes. Is this a blog for the enlightened few?
There must be more readers than those few - stop hiding and come forward with new insights.
Heinz Koenig

[Terry]

RockinRed:

"Even Adam Smith - oft-quoted but I suspect little read by free-market groupies - was very clear that markets need firm regulation."

Yes, I actually read his book. (theory of the moral sentiments too). And, if you did, you'd find that Smith believed in minimal regulation. Mostly, to prevent collusion, price fixing and monopolization.

[christopher muir]

So Sego has had a makeover. Well, good luck to her. She may well find her future in films or theatre. One can no longer guess the fate of any of today's politicians. We see them scrambling from right to left in the midst of a financial crisis - even Bush has become a kind of closet socialist according to many reports - surely only because the massive "rescue" plan will give him just enough time to leave the White House before the financial system finally collapses totally. Let's not worry, Sarah Palin will fix it all! Sego should, like Carla, make showbiz a career and give up her presidential aspirations. She should also release a CD album entitled "I was there..."

[Mauvezin]

@ Azloon
"our so-called 'friend' (you can understand why americans shudder to consider the notion of french 'enemies')."
**************
De quels amis parlez-vous !?
De ceux qui nous ont "offert" la crise de 1929 menant au fascisme apres le délire de la Prohibition et qui apres d'autres crises nous amenent cette dernière tout en se permettant encore de nous donner des leçons!?
Nous ne sommes pas des amis et le serons jamais et le plus nous serons distanciés le mieux nous nous porterons.
__________________________________
@Richard Jones
" Thus France's ruling élite have never been challenged, or questioned or been forced to show the same level of public accountability as in the USA."
*************
Est-ce de l'humour !??
Le peuple US est un troupeau de chèvres !
En France, le sang aurait déjà largement coulé avant de nous expulser de nos maisons !
Votre Gouvernement vous a mené en guerre sous de fallacieux prétextes, vous expulse de vos maisons et vous osez parler de "public accountability" !?
Sinistre plaisantin !

[Pierrre]

Unsurpinsingly many posts here have trouble facing the famous "facts" that they so value when they supposedly prove how the french have got it all wrong in economy.
However the first "I told you so" warnings did not come from the outdated french protetionnists but from some of the most effective actors of business and finance (remember Soros?)
Regulation is not protectionnism, just as, for instance, justice is not vengeance, or sex is not porno.
Now you might continue thinking that the problem is the absence of a real free market (translation: still less regulation), that two crisis in two centuries is a correct price to pay (by whom?) for global prosperity (for whom?), or that the reasonnably balanced system is to be found halfway betwin the "social-demrocrats" models and the models that have been promoted in Republican lead USA, as well as in the former communists economies of Russia and China.
You might also argue that the war has been won in Iraq, that global warming is a myth, that the sun turns around the earth, and that the CIA was the instigator of 9/11. And even (to get back to today's orginal theme) than Sego is made of substance more than style.
As usual even when sitting in the middle of a house on fire, some are still feeling cold and wet.

[azloon]

[Europe has seen but the first glimmers of disaster so far. Thus France is crowing,] RJ

my thot exactly. sarko may find out that 'running off at the mouth' can bit him in the ass.

two weeks before our collapse, our experts were sanguine about our economy's propects. are french finance officials so superior in insight to ours that sarko can safely pronounce that all is well in france?

[Dodo]

Bonjour à Tous,

This where the Sego's show comes from...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n4sOdy5rGE

[azloon]

Robert M./Martin

you analysis of the american housing issue, as the culprit in this meltdown, is racist, i am afraid.

the decision to encourage home ownership by our government, both republican and democrat, was a conscious and morally correct one, imo. home ownership (by minorities, racial and financial) promotes social stability which is in our national interest. and consistent with our democratic principles. sometimes, the disadvantaged need a 'step up' before they can fully participate in american prosperity (rest in peace).

it was not the (bad) mortgages, per se, that caused the problem. it was the securitation/packaging of the mortgages and their worldwide marketing. and a system that allowed 30:1 leverage by financial institutions that specualated in these securities. the limits on leverage by investment banks were expanded only recently and that was a bad decision.

as a former broker, i know all too well the hazards of leverage. at 30:1, one's investments only need to decline in value by about 3% before your lenders start demanding repayment of their loans. this in turn leads to massive selling, which dramatically depresses the market prices of the collateral, which prompts more 'margin calls.' eventually, there is no market for this collateral, and with 'mark to market' regulations, these financial entities no longer have a capital base on which to base further investment.

and voila !!!!!!! .......... we have the current mess.

btw, sometimes its tempting to believe that the world is as simple as Terry and Robert M. imagine it to be. don't fall for this. life/the world is complex. that it weren't so. what's scary about this is that they both are smart guys. can you imagine what dumber folks are inclined to believe?

[azloon]

[There must be more readers than those few - stop hiding and come forward with new insights.
Heinz Koenig]

Heinz, go for it !!

[azloon]

Mauvezin

i am translating your response to me for benefit of 'english only' readers:

"What friends are you talking about?
Of those who have "offered" the crisis of 1929 leading to fascism after the delirium of Prohibition and other crises after us while it is still sufficient to give us lessons?
We are not friends and never will be and the more we distance ourselves better we will."

i find it interesting that you feel called up to speak for the french nation. but i suspect you are not too far off the mark.

my only thought about it is that it must be a 'bitch' to be such a victim of world events. sort of an impotent place to be, n'est-ce pas?

[Rick]

PIERRE,

Free = undistorted.

Free does not mean unregulated.

You suffer from semantic-itis, sir.

Or I do.

[rockinred]

@ Terry

Re Adam Smith -here he is, in his own words, on why he favoured regulating banks and credit...

“To restrain private people, it may be said, from receiving in payment the promissory notes of a banker, for any sum whether great or small, when they themselves are willing to receive them; or, to restrain a banker from issuing such notes, when all his neighbours are willing to accept of them, is a manifest violation of that natural liberty which it is the proper business of law, not to infringe, but to support.... Such regulations may, no doubt, be considered as in some respects a violation of natural liberty. But those exertions of the natural liberty of a few individuals, which might endanger the security of the whole society, are, and ought to be, restrained by the laws of all governments; of the most free, as well as of the most despotical. The obligation of building party walls, in order to prevent the communication of fire, is a violation of natural liberty, exactly of the same kind with the regulations of the banking trade which are here proposed.”

And here he is being a dangerous pinko leftie...

"When the regulation, therefore, is in support of the workman, it is always just and equitable; but it is sometimes otherwise when in favour of the masters."

"It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expence, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

Smith would have been horrified at the way his ideas have been selectively hijacked by the right, and would have approved of the French approach. (Although I doubt very much if he would have had much time for Sarkozy.)

"You might also argue that the war has been won in Iraq, that global warming is a myth, that the sun turns around the earth, and that the CIA was the instigator of 9/11. And even (to get back to today's orginal theme) than Sego is made of substance more than style."
(Pierrre's own goal)

[Robert Marchenoir]

Azloon, you seem to me to be an intelligent and subtle person and I usually respect what you say, even when I disagree. But now you've allowed yourself to say something very stupid.

You begin by shooting the R word at me, and that's when all intelligence has left you, I'm afraid. So I'm a racist, eh? Racism is the charge levelled by leftists when they are on shaky ground, and do not have anything else to base their point on.

That's akin to being labeled an enemy of the proletariat in the USSR. Either it's meaningless, or it's a badge of honor.

You can call me racist to your heart's content. Add fascist, nazi, anti-semite, homophobe, sexist, islamophobe if you will. Anything you like. Be my guest. Other bloggers have insulted me (or so they thought) by calling me capitalist, reactionary, pro-American, Zionist. I'm not impressed.

That's always the case when one challenges conventional wisdom or received ideologies.

I notice you did not bother to define racism, to explain why it would be bad, or to explain why my comment would be racist.

I would argue that, in fact, you are the racist.

You agreed with me that one part of the problem was the way mortgages were repackaged and re-sold, through various and opaque financial instruments.

However, you refuse to acknowledge the fact that no fraudulent repackaging would have been necessary if bad lending decisions had not been taken in the first place.

You pretend that it is right to lend money to people whom you know, with a good deal of certainty, they will default. Why? Because they belong to "racial minorities".

Some people should, according to you, receive preferrential treatment just because they are Blacks or Hispanics. Just as Whites had once the privilege to ride in front of the bus.

So it's you who is the racist.

What we see here is that "racism" is only racism when exerted by Whites against others. All the other peoples are welcome to be racist. If racism is directed against Whites, or benefits everybody but the white, it actually becomes a Good Thing, according to liberals.

Being myself a supporter of individual liberty, property and free markets, I agree with you that home ownership should be encouraged.

However, your argument is a fallacy. Promoting social stability by encouraging home ownership by people who cannot and will not meet their mortgage payments is a contradiction in terms.

It's a bit like jumping in the river to escape from getting wet by the rain.

Home ownership is, as you correctly state, a factor of social stability inasmuch as it forces people to seek employment, education, training, thrift and deferred gratification.

It induces social cohesion because it encourages people to work hard, save, plan for the long run, honour their pledges and stay on the right side of the law, since they have a major asset to protect.

As soon as you permit, and indeed encourage (as has been the case with subprime mortgages), the opposite behaviour, far from promoting social cohesion, you actually subvert society.

Subprime has meant lending money to home buyers with no downpayment and no checks on their revenues or credit worthiness. You would declare your revenues, and that would be taken to face value. That's all.

You'd have to be a saint to refuse such a deal. Blacks and Hispanics are no more saints than Whites.

Actually, less so.

Yeah, I'm sure this will provoke howls of "racism" by morally superior liberals. But studies have shown that with equivalent revenues, Blacks are massively more likely to default on their payments than Whites.

Or, in other words, that you'd need a Black with vastly superior revenues to a White, in order to reach the same likelihood that your loan will be repaid in time.

I'm sorry, but that's a fact.

Maybe reality is racist, after all?

[Lex]

Robert M & Martin,

Taking the easy path and blaming others for one's problems leads to a shallow understanding of the issues at hand. Would that all problems had such easy answers, particularly the complex problems.

I offer my mortgage -- written eighteen months ago -- as a case in point. My mortgage was written by a company that lends the money of its shareholders and does not sell its mortgages. When my partner and I applied, they were more interested in his income and assets, because he works for a large investment house and has investments and savings that are easily documented and verified. All of my assets are tied up in my business, and to verify the veracity of my claims would have required the submission and review of a few years of tax returns, as well as a valuation of my business. All that I was asked to submit were copies of three consecutive paychecks, since I draw a salary from my business. We also wanted to make a small down payment, so as to part with as little cash as possible.

Using the 'blue sky formula' to estimate one's ability to repay a mortgage, my partner's income was not sufficient, so my income should have been needed. In three paychecks, I can make my salary look much larger than what it is, but the mortgage company didn't seem to care. All they seemed to care about was getting our signatures on the contracts as quickly as possible and moving on.

We are both upper middle class white men, who have steady employment histories in our respective industries, and we do have assets that exceed the value of the house. At least, that is what it looks like on the paper that we submitted to the mortgage company. But they made no attempt to verify the validity of any of that information. We were, quite frankly, more concerned about the numbers working than the lender.

So what do we have then? Paper that shows them what they want to see, but no effort expended to verify that paper. Two upper middle class white men who want to buy a house. A mortgage salesman who wants to get his commission as quickly as possible. Money managers who need to show earnings. Investors who want dividends.

Is white men lending white men money without due diligence smart business? Is it discriminating? Is it racist? Is it sexist? Is it just plain stupid?

Banks and investment companies should not be lending money to people who cannot afford to pay. Using lower interest rates upfront to make the numbers work, only to have the interest rate adjust upwards later is trickery, and some of those adjusted rates verge on usury. Lenders are compelled to write loans to those from whom they take deposits, but the loans underwritten by the government were not meant to insure badly vetted borrowers, nor where they meant to be supplemental mortgages to enable people -- such as myself -- to buy more expensive homes.

Those of us in the US who are educated understand quite clearly who is not. Those of us who do not work in office towers and corporate parks, those of us who do not live in lily-white suburbs, those of us who do not exist in bubbles and associate only with people like ourselves understand that the uneducated find it difficult to understand complex problems and are easily deceived and manipulated. Those of us who come from families who have been middle class for many generations understand that the wisdom does not come with the parchment, that those newly arrived -- often educated with government subsidy -- do not yet wholly share our values and our caution, nor do they understand that the wealthy are different and are not to be trusted.

It is one thing to overcharge the poor and working class for disposable diapers and to sell them cars at exorbitant interest rates, but it is another thing entirely to expose one of the pillars of the American economy to such high risk speculation. There is plenty of blame to go around, and all of us would do well to pause for a moment and think about how we may have participated in and benefited from thirty years of living on tomorrow's money.

[azloon]

Robert

i didn't mean to suggest any deliberate racist motive on your part, only perhaps a unintended consequence of omission, not commission.

racism was probably a poor choice of words, an exaggeration.

i think i know most of the reasoning behind your position on issues as from affirmative action to mortgage preference. i get it and don't agree with it. egregious racial oppression over centuries is a reason to favor remedial action. these programs are such action.

what the financial industry did in this easy credit environment, knowing of the social goals of increased home ownership, is the real problem/sin in this situation. from my own career, i know how little typical financial consumers understand about particulars of a product which is explained to them. an 'adjustable rate option arm' (borrowers can decide to pay principal or not) is such a product which is now haunting us. it is really nothing more than a scam by the lending institutions to get the 4% 'up front' fee, damn the consequences.

regulators could have headed this off (as much as i am skeptical of regulation). capitalists (i am one of them) will fill any hole to make as much money for themselves and stockholders as is possible. for this reason, rules are needed to avoid destructive excess.

ooh blah dee, ooh blah da, life goes on.

[Daniel Strohl]

"Thus France's ruling élite have never been challenged, or questioned" (Richard Johns)

Mme Royal is eager to be at the very head of France's ruling élite. Her credentials for that : she got 47 % of the votes against Sarkozy in last year's presidential election; meanwhile she leads the Poitou-Charente region and last but not least, she graduated at the ENA (Ecole Nationale d'Administration), which is (or was :) the nec plus ultra of higher French education for persons planning a political or high level administrative career.

However, her start at this prestigious Grande Ecole was somewhat modest, since her output ranking of the "promotion Voltaire" in 1980 was Nr. 95, versus Nr. 11 for François Hollande and Nr. 25 for Dominique de Villepin (Source : Wikipedia).

As in some other Grandes Ecoles, intellectual modesty does not count as a main part of the curriculum. This may be understandable, since there are many brilliant minds there. But unfortunately, there is sometimes a negative fall-out of this - overestimating one's own intelligence and underestimating grossly the intelligence of others, less favoured with high level education or with no education at all.

I think that this happened to Mme Royal at the Zenith and in earlier cases as well. As an optimist, I think that many compatriots are able to make a difference between "substance and style" (PIERRE), even if the show is made by an elegant and attractive lady ...

[dada]

"You can call me racist to your heart's content. Add fascist, nazi, anti-semite, homophobe, sexist, islamophobe if you will. Anything you like. Be my guest. Other bloggers have insulted me (or so they thought) by calling me capitalist, reactionary, pro-American, Zionist. I'm not impressed."

http://fr.youtube.com/watch?v=WDTIjOWKG-4

[Pierrre]

@SIR RICK
"Free = undistorted.
Free does not mean unregulated.
You suffer from semantic-itis, sir.
Or I do."

Because I share your definition I do fear you do actually suffer. As all those who have been for two decades speaking against distortion and acting against any (effective) regulation. Or didn't you?

[Mauvezin]

>> Azloon
"sort of an impotent place to be, n'est-ce pas?"
******************
Il vaut bien mieux etre impotents comme nous le sommes que "potents" comme vous l'etes pour faire de tels désastres.
PS: Ma Famille etant en France depuis dix siecles en une situation n'etant pas insignifiante, je me sens autant habilité à parler en son nom que les anglosaxons de ce Forum qui ne connaissent de la France et des français que le tres bref séjour qu'ils y font ou qu'ils y ont fait.

[Terry]

Heinz:

So, give us your thoughts on the blog. Charles touched on about 8 different areas. We've jumped on one (although I do think Sego looks like she's hosting the MTV Music Awards). She looks a lot younger with the curly hair, I think.

[azloon]

[....Ma Famille etant en France depuis dix siecles en une situation n'etant pas insignifiante, je me sens autant habilité à parler en son nom que les anglosaxons de ce Forum qui ne connaissent de la France et des français que le tres bref séjour qu'ils y font ou qu'ils y ont fait.] Mauvezin

Mauvezin, you categorial pronouncement that the u.s. has no friends in france has the ring of angry reaction (to my post) rather than truth. in fact, i happen to know a french citizen who likes us.

so, despite your being able to trace your family back to the caves of lascaux, i am not sure your presumption to speak for all french is warranted.

but, no matter. i really just want to thank you for giving me this chance to invite you and all other u.s. bashers/critics to the opportunity of a lifetime, the chance to thrash the u.s. senseless in the midst of our financial crisis. pick your venue. this blog might work.

the crisis showcases, at least in its current stage, all that is most dysfunctional and infuriating about the u.s.

we have had an imbecile for a president for the past eight years who has zero credibility with citizens of both political parties, hence the defeat of the bailout proposal today. we have the opposition democrats, lead by nancy pelosi, speaker of the house, who, immediately before the vote, went out of her way to insult republican 'know-nothings' who had committed to a 'yes' vote, thereby prompting these overgrown babies to change their votes and later to say that their feelings had been hurt.

we have a vice-presidential candidate on the republican side whose ineptitude, and absence of qualification, are breathtaking in their scope. and her sarko-like running mate who flits from surprise to surprise, stirring up trouble, so he can later claim that he helped resolve the crisis he exacerbated.

it's safe to say the big, bad u.s. isn't looking so big or so bad (in the 'leroy brown' sense) these days. just screwed up.

so now's the time to pile on and to rub our noses in the mud. you won't get many chances like this one. but i will remind you there's a good chance we'll 'get our act together' before too very long and work ourselves out of our current malaise. and then you'll want to revert to your quiet simmering.

re u.s. warships surrounding the somali pirates: i'll be interested to see if the u.s. ends up paying a ransom for release of the pirated vessel (which has been the french modus operandi in these situations). not much chance of this, imo.

[Romain]

Richard & Daniel,

I agree with elitism being a deep problem in France. However,when I watch the mooseburger eating "hockey mum" or a televangelist like Sego, I'd rather stick to our ageing system.
I wonder how on earth Sego made it to ENA, given her IQ., there is oviousvly not much left of that education.Both women are becoming the laughing stock of political class.
Azloon,
US don't have to pay a ransom, a russian ship is sailing over there. Given the delicate russian approach, they will probably sink the boat with the crew ,pirates and cargo on board.Poutine is problably very pleased to embarass Ioushchenko whom he says has sold weapons to Soudan illegally.

[Rick]

Mon pauvre MAUVEZIN, il se peut que votre perspective soit un tantinet occluse, non seulement par votre généalogie (impeccable), mais aussi par votre nombril…

D’ailleurs, les ‘Anglo-Saxons’, ça n’existe nulle part.

[Rick]

Before anybody starts knocking the United States, they should recall what happened 70 years ago today in Munich.

We Europeans can boast a track-record every bit as dismal as the Yanks'.

[Dodo]

azloon

The United States has some friends in France, it is true, but very few.
The French who followed for eight years this wretched French Bashing, racist and xenophobe, are not US friends. Even those which had a real admiration for the United State few years ago, are not any more.
I hope that you understand it.

-----
"...which has been the french modus operandi in these situations..."

Were you sleeping when the French did that ?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4765041.ece
-----
Historical note :

1989: the fall of Communism.
2008: the fall of the neoliberalism.

[Ritchie in Strasbourg]

The derivatives beast will eat everything. Not many understand this yet and it certainly isnt being talked about by the media yet. JP Morgan has $92 Trillion of derivatives exposure.

There will be more casualties for sure. The problem is that France has a 60-70% consumer economy like the USA...

Europe sent all of it's dollar reserves into the derivative beasts mouth yesterday ($630Bn)...now the battle is on to become the new reserve currency of the world.

[Ros]

DODO: "This is where the Sego's show comes from.." - Very good illustration - clever of you to find it!

[dot king]

"Reading your blog from a somewhat outside position, may I say that things can get a bit boaring as the same wise men and girls step in and dominate the discussion on just about every subject or theme. . . .There must be more readers than those few - stop hiding and come forward with new insights.

Heinz Koenig

Heinz: There are a good handful of regular contributors to CB's blog (and some recently new ones) but if they all went away at once, then there'd be no discussion at all. If they/we waited for new people to contribute, knowing there must be thousands who read without contributing, then they/we might wait for ever.
You've posted before, I remember your name particularly - as we have the same family name separated only by a linguistic frontier - I would wouldn't I?

This time you post to criticise the fact that the same people contribute and seem to make the same points over and over to the same people. I'd agree with you there - the blog article is about Ségolène Royal, but most posts are about money-crunch, capitalism, and a lot are between American contributors who have differing views within their own system. That's the way it goes sometimes, but there are other threads for bloggers, who, like myself are not very interested/knowledgeable in monetary politics.
Other than growing horror at some of the things that have been said and all of the things that are happening, I have nothing useful to say. So not "allwissend".

But if you have something to say, some point to make - I'm sure you have at least 57 (sorry, very lame joke), please do so.

You seem to be trying to whip up contributions from recalcitrant maybe-would-maybe-wouldn't-be-bloggers whilst making no point in particular yourself for them to pick up (as they haven't taken up anyone else's point).
There is no reason why you should read the blog "from a somewhat outside position" - you want to change things, change them. Simple.
Blog away - help fight "boardom" :)

[Mauvezin]

>> DODO
"The French who followed for eight years this wretched French Bashing, racist and xenophobe, are not US friends...."
******************
........but still have some US friends.... with open eyes !
___________________________________________________________________
>>> RICK
"Mon pauvre MAUVEZIN, il se peut que votre perspective soit un tantinet occluse
***************
Occluse ??? J'imagine que vous voulez signifier "occlusive" ou plutot " obtuse" !??
-----------
D’ailleurs, les ‘Anglo-Saxons’, ça n’existe nulle part.
****************
Le mot "anglo-saxon" est apparu en 1863 signifiant:Relatif aux peuples de civilisation britannique.
_______________________________________________________________________
>>AZLOON
"in fact, i happen to know a french citizen who likes us."
********************
Only one !??

[christopher muir]

ROMAIN - The Ukraine ship you mention is an intriguing, evolving drama. It seems that the Somali pirates are now shooting at one another on the decks while the American destroyer gets ever closer. Obviously adding to today's ever-increasing number of problems.

[azloon]

[>>AZLOON
"in fact, i happen to know a french citizen who likes us."
********************
Only one !??] Mauvezin

i guess living in france for six siecles doesn't mean you can figure out when an american is kidding you.

lighten up, mon ami.

:)

,

[azloon]

[JP Morgan has $92 Trillion of derivatives exposure] Ritchie in strassbourg

sorry, there aren't 92 trillion of anything in the world larger than a grand of sand. back to your sources.

I also thought Sego looked good, she might even be looking for a boyfriend (or does she have one already?). Perhaps she wants to ape Madonna and those other 50-somethings....

Somebody said how can the french socialists be trusted with government if they can't run their own party!

Whilst fat cats, greed, derivatives, leverage (gearing), excesses and all the other epithets that are levelled at modern capitalism may have been exposed by the current noisy deflating of bubbles, the root cause remains an unexpected decline in property values.
Clearly, all those clever government agencies, financiers, civil servants etc., never factored in to their economic and financial models such a fall.
Ever-rising house prices seems to have been a mindset that became a received wisdom, a kind of western holy writ which, when the bubble burst showed that the 'Empereur' (liberal democracy) had no clothes!

CB's comment about policing the market as the French have done since the middle ages is interesting. The excess of credit seen elsewhere is not typical in France, and perhaps this is why.

However there are other mindsets that will be challenged, and adversely affect France as they unfold just the same.
For example 'Deflation' is taking hold despite the establishment's denial that it could ever happen again (after the 30s).

Excessive taxation will also be challenged, but governments can damage your wealth; and when their own survival is threatened they will not give a fig about your race, gender or health.
One's ability to be taxed will be paramount.

[Rick]

MAUVEZIN,

Verbe: occlure > occlus = participe passe (j'en ai marre de mettre des accents!)

[Mauvezin]

> Azloon
"lighten up, mon ami. :)
****************
Fi !
I'm not your friend !!! :))

[Dodo]

I don’t know if the Martians listen our radio, watch TV or read Charles blog, but they must count us as the most stupid and incomprehensible animal of the universe.

Martian emissary BipBip’s report to his boss

- The Americans don’t like the French because they are liberal.
- Are the French liberal ?
- Yes, in an American way.
- OK. Now, why don’t the French like the Americans?
- Because Americans are Liberal, of course!
- Ah... strange animals.

What more?

- The French don’t like the Americans because of the "laissez faire"!
- Yes, I know, "laissez faire" a French expression, Turgot, Vincent de Gournay ASO.
- Yes!
- And why are the Americans against the "Laissez faire"?
- No, the Americans are not against, but for….
- And the French?
- Against, obviously
?!?!?!
BipBip, I think you drink too much.

According to figures from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)
as at December 31, 2001
JPM had notional amounts of derivative contracts outstanding of US$ 23,520 billion or US$ 23.5 trillion.
That was out of total derivatives of reporting banks of US$ 45.4 trillion.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/chapmand061302.html

Q1 2008: $ 90.4 trillion

http://www.institutionalriskanalytics.com/research/bankcds.pdf