Georgia and Russia's Riviera riches

I'm back in Paris from Moscow but the news is still Russian. President Sarkozy has warned the Kremlin of the dire consequences that will ensue if it fails to pull its troops out of Georgia. If it does not, he will... call a special meeting of the European Union council. That will give Vladimir Putin pause for thought.

And we have confirmation today that a spectacular Belle Epoque villa on the  Riviera is being bought by a Russian billionaire for the astonishing sum of 496 million euros (731 million dollars). 

The two events can be linked. The Russian purchase of the Leopolda villa [above] is an in-your-face display of the power enjoyed by the oligarchs who have amassed fortunes with the indulgence of Russia's governing caste. We do not yet know who is behind the world record real estate deal. The French media reported that it was Mikhael Prokhorov, 42, [picture below],  a nickel baron, who was humiliated by French prosecutors when he was detained him at Courchevel, the glitzy ski resort 18 months ago. He was held for four days on suspicion of bringing dozens of prostitutes from Moscow to entertain his Alpine party guests but no charges were brought. The episode was seen in Moscow as a French plot to humiliate a leading Russian. Prokhorov's office in Moscow has denied that he is the purchaser and added that he will not set foot in France until the French apologise for the way he was treated. 

Whichever oligarch splashed out on the Leopolda, the deal symbolises the new Russians' taste for flaunting their power in a west which in recent decades gave their country little respect. The rush by the Moscow rich on London and French playgrounds, is part of the renaissance of Russian confidence and muscle that we have seen applied to Georgia over the past 10 days.

The hammering of Georgia has ended western illusions that Putin's Russia was still a tame, diminished version of the former super power. You can argue about who should be blamed for what, as a couple of hundred people have done so far on the last posting here. In my humble view, after last week in Moscow and watching Russia since the Cold War, the west sowed trouble and missed a big opportunity with its triumphalism after the collapse of communism and its condescending approach during the chaotic years of Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s.

After that, the west was naive towards the authoritarian, reviving Russia of Vladimir Putin. The Americans should have realised that pushing Nato into the Caucasus and Ukraine would sooner or later goad the Kremlin into action. Georgia's unwise attack on its separatist, Russian-defended, province provided the occasion. At the same time, Europe's western continental states have been over-indulgent towards the Kremlin, allowing themselves to become dependent on Russian energy.

Everyone has woken up now that the empire has struck back. The calendar seems to have been unwound by a quarter of a century as the west wonders what to do about Russia's assertion of power beyond its frontiers.

No doubt the answer is a modern version of the formula that worked before -- firmness along with a willingness to engage. But things are different this time. For all its need for Russian resources, the west has levers that it did not have with the Soviet Union. Think of that 496 million euro villa on the Riviera. Russia is now part of the global financial and economic system and it is eager to become a full member of the club. The west should make this, and the respect which Putin craves for Russia, conditional on good behaviour. At stake are Moscow's applicatoin for membership of the World Trade Organisation and its continuing presence in the club of rich nations, known as G8 since it was admitted to the G7 in 1997.    

A more personal argument was set out to me in Moscow last week by Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian military analyst who is critical of the Kremlin. "It's not like the Soviet Union invading Afghanistan or Stalin's days," he said. "The men in the Politburo weren't businessmen. In crises, they weren't worried about losing billions of their personal funds if things went wrong." Sections of the current leadership with big interests in the outside world are very worried about being ostracized by the west, he said. 

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PS: Apologies to those who want me to get back into Franco-French matters. Next time, I hope, though there may be an incursion into Belgium first.    

 

Comments

[John]

There's only so much that Russia can do. It's GDP is only half of the French GDP. It's military expenditure, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, is only two-third of the French military expenditure, and a ridiculous 6.5% of the US military expenditure.

Russia has only 142 million people, which is less than the population of the Russian Empire at the beginning of the 20th century, and its population is declining. There are 23.8 million Russians between 20 and 30 y/o, but only 13.6 million Russians between 0 and 10 y/o, compared to 8.1 million French people between 0 and 10 y/o. In other words, although Russia is a country with more than twice the population of France, its youngest age bracket is only two-third larger than in France. Talk of a demographic disaster!

Whichever way you look at it, it's obvious Russia is a country that doesn't have the means to achieve superpower status again. Their best hope is to become an influential country inside the EU, on par with Germany, France and the UK, but unfortunately their current leadership is longing for the old superpower days and completely deluded about Russia's human, financial, and military potential. This could lead to catastrophe for Russia if they go one step too far (like invading Ukraine over the Crimean issue for instance).

[azloon, the 'meracun from meracuh]

[If it does not, he will... call a special meeting of the European Union council. That will give Vladimir Putin pause for thought.] CB

priceless....

[Paul]

Five hundred million is the sort of money a homicidal maniac would spend on his "Evil Lair".

[Dominique]

I wonder when Caucasus, oups! i mean mean "Cote d'azus" will have enough russians for becoming separatists and claiming rattachement to Russia.

[azloon]

prostitutes will be flocking (sic) to prokhorov's new villa, no doubt, with scant risk of police interference and perhaps even police participation (great way to ensure police protection and a common enticement wherever these 'goods are sold').

he may want to immitate the sultan of brunei who recruits attractive, wholesome, young american women to his palace to work as 'hospitality specialists' at staggering large salaries with the prospect of additional 'gratuities.'

you can guess what happens next.

i suspect that prokhorov won't need to resort to such tactics to ensure a steady stream of 'party girls' into his new digs, seeing as how russia has a natural abundance of them (some of whom are available as 'web wives,' for any bachelors among you you may be looking for trouble).

all of this proves yet again that 'skin' is one of the world's most enduring commodities and, importantly, one for which no pipeline is necesary.

note: i can't help but feel that europe and the u.s. deserve guys like prokhorov after years of flaunting our richest and most obnoxious citizens (can anyone say 'donald trump?'). what do we expect these nouveau zillionaires to do? show good taste?

and they provide a great way for our wealthy friends to offload luxury goods they can no longer afford to fuel/heat, e.g. yachts, jet aircraft and mcmansions.

a well-to-do, former high school acquaintance of mine was able to dump his mega-yacht, listed for sale for five years with no bidders, onto a russian pharmacy-chain owner (humm ... what kinds of drugs?) who made a full-price offer (unheard of in these circles) and paid for it out of his checking account.

[Dodo]

Let sum up :
- An English invation in Aquitaine - Limousin
- A Dutch one in Creuse
- Eurabia in Paris
- A Russian one in Cote d'Azur

Do you believe the American Neocon (Richard Perle, Paul Bremer and others ) will move from France ?

[Angelina MaldeTesta]

"...as the west wonders what to do about Russia's assertion of power beyond its frontiers."

The haughty reprimand of the west. Russia cannot protect its innocent citizens from being blown to bits with US and Israeli bombs - such nasty, evil ol' Russians.
While Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Sudan, et al, are within "western frontiers" therefore bombing those innocent civilians by the US and England is ok?

Double standards have blinded the ignorant.

[You're right, the people in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Sudan were all living under peaceful, civilized, humane governments until the west came along. And it was obviously necessary for Russia to invade Georgia to protect Georgian citizens. CB]

[Daniel Strohl]

CHARLES has written a well over-thought article, backing on a sound experience gained on the spot, and not only through more or less oriented medias on both sides. May be the medias are more oriented in the East, and less in the West - who knows ? :)

In today's "spiegel on line", there is an interesting (in so far as it deviates somewhat from the Western vulgate) article called "LEARN FROM KENNEDY" by Gabor Steingart.

Hereafter the header of the article, in German of course :
"Der russische Ministerpräsident Wladimir Putin wird derzeit oft mit Stalin und Hitler verglichen - zu Unrecht. In Wahrheit ist er ein russischer Kennedy. Und Putins Kuba heißt Georgien".

Translation :
The Russian Prime Minister Wladimir Putin is right now often compared with Stalin and Hitler - wrongly. In truth, he is a Russian Kennedy. And Putin's Cuba is called Georgia".

I feel that I will get heavy flak fire from New-Jersey, Seattle and possibly Arizona. But everybody will be happy to know that the article does not mention Mrs.Putin. I remember the fierce Anglo-Saxon outcries when some stupid froggies dared to compare Mrs.Sarkozy to Jackie K. :)

Hereafter a link to the article :
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,572691,00.html

[Mary Fernandez]

These Russian billionaire playboys remind me of the Saudi ones that flooded Europe in the 70s. Less hairy though.

I hope it doesn't bring back a disco music/white lounge suit revival.

[Dodo]

Charles,
Some irony in your comment to Angelina MaldeTesta ?
USA opened the pandora box in Iraq. Period

[Mary Fernandez]

Oh Daniel -

What part of Kennedy are you comparing him to? The sleeping around part?

1. Kennedy didn't invade Cuba.

2. The Soviets were installing nukes pointed at the US in Cuba. The US isn't doing that in Georgia. If you're refering to Poland, I believe that's a radar station. The 10 missiles that eventually will be installed (Czech Rep?) aren't Nukes and aren't pointed at Russia (and even if they were, it wouldn't change the current balance. The Cuban situation reduced American response time to minutes.)

A better comparison would be Hitler and the Sudetenland. Manufacture a pretense to invade & annex your neighbor under the guise of protecting 'your citizens'.

What is the 'near abroad' but 'Lebensraum' in another language?

[Dodo]

"some stupid froggies" Daniel

Out of topic and pls respect the people living in a country. People living in Germany are called Germans, in France French and in USA North American and not bad names.
Desagree with the French policy, the French country, even French people, it is your right. I desagree with so many Americans here, you know.
But no offense, pls, no bad names.
Is the moderator sleeping somewhere ?

[Mary Fernandez]

Daniel -

I followed your link and found out Germany has a loon problem.

Dodos is France, loons in Germany. ;-)

[azloon]

re: frogs and loons

Dodo, the trick in this regard is to call yourself by any derogatory term before someone else does. this defuses the effect. Daniel understands this (sage that he is).

as the american childrens' rhyme goes: 'sticks and stones can break my bones but names can never hurt me.' of course this isn't true but you can pretend.

MF: germany has a loon problem? i couldn't find this in the german language article linked by Daniel tho i looked. i was hampered in my efforts by my total ignorance of the german language. i did see the word 'ende' meaning end which was close to the german word "ende' meaning duck. but that's as far as i got. :)

[Daniel Strohl]

MARY,

I get your points - but I didn't write the article. I didn't say either that I endorse it. However, it is interesting to read it. As a French saying goes : il faut écouter plusieurs sons de cloches.

You wrote : "Kennedy didn't invade Cuba". True - but he probably didn't discourage either the anti-Castro Cubans exiled in Miami to try to invade Cuba ...

PS : a good translation of loon in German would be "Vollidiot" :) - "crétin" in French :)

DODO,

"Some stupid froggies" - this was self-irony - I am French myself!

As far as I remember, you were not yet on the blog when there was a controversy regarding Mrs. Sarkozy's and Mrs. Kennedy's respective elegance. Therefore, it is quite understandable that you didn't get that I was teasing our Anglo-Saxon friends - they are teasing us also since many months !

The moderator was not sleeping - may be he was even smiling ...

Otherwise, I agree totally with you. One may disagree on ideas, but this is not an excuse or a reason to attack persons or nationalities. This is one of the reasons why I like CHARLES' blog - compared to others, it is really "civilisé".

[Blendi Progri]

I think the policy of engagement is the best idea. Instead of pushing Russia away more trust has to be given and more firmness shown too. It’s a balancing act that needs some visionary heads to carry it through, but it can be done. At present I can’t see any EU leader that is statesmanlike enough to channel this and achieve results.

The best policies often remain in paper as simple unpractical ideas if no one can carry them through, big& bold personalities are needed but I can’t see many in UK/Germany/ France as least EU able to balance EU and Russia in the present time.
--

Russian oligarchs are ‘enjoying’ the fruits of their labour, having Fun and at times even scandals have happened. They buy big villas, huge sport clubs, raise the property prices (at the upper end- that doesn’t concern most of us who aren’t that rich) and in a way- I think- that many of them look like they want Out.

Buying, buying and more buying is just a cover, not just shopping spree by folks know have nothing better to do.

They Want Out of Russia; by transferring assets, moving large sums of money abroad ( they may be many things but not stupid, as few seem to describe them) as if they are afraid that they are just one slip away from getting back to the square one or worse.

… few causes:

1) Human reaction, especially for those whose source of massive capital that they now posses, has v. dubious origins, to say the least.
2) Politics, Oligarch more than anyone can detect the changes in echelons of power being so close to it/ profiting from/ dealing with…, in Russia is easy to see that the changes are very pronounced, ranging from cold shouldering (loss of contracts, ext. pressure and bankruptcy) to prison.This has been demonstrated often and naturally they are scared.

3) In Russia, despite attempts at stability and law and order; economical acrobatics are quite common, there’s lack of transparency, the government dominates most of the economy, deals and competitions aren’t regulated but commanded from a centralised point so despite having it made in Russia, they long for some protection, respectability and the rule of law (of course when they are at risk) so the West gives them just that.

Having property, investing in western companies, gives them some sense of security, assets that are far from mother Russia and a safe heaven for their families in troubled times.

If it costs 2-3-4 or 5 times more than the going rate, then so be it, money seems no objection, but lacking the time and patience, they just go ahead and do it, or rather Buy It.
Also a great deal of showmanship, kitsch, lack of taste, arrogance etc is involved, but to me the basic motives remain the same:
• Constant Fear of unpredictable changes
• Lack of security in the mother country.
• Having a safe place anywhere in the west.

The ex-P.Minister of Tailand bought Man City, an unsuccessful football club, just to have a foothold in England and not to go back in his country- where he is accused / wanted on charges of corruption. Another oligarch- in telecom field many oligarch crave the stability and security that Europe brings – when they are under threat- and not just Russian oligarchs.

Russian oligarchs have seen it happen, they know how fickle is the relationship money-politics-power in Russia, things can change very fast, so they must act very fast. It can happen to anyone, so any of them thinks it can happen to Me.

Back to Georgia. In a way I think Russia showed restrain, behaved better than Georgia and was provoked.
Its true also that this friction-ultimately-war has been brewing for a long time and Russia isn’t that innocent as has been methodical in their approach and weighting out all the options available for sometime, if NATO goes to their borders, they have to do something- as their reasoning goes.
Georgia gave them the perfect scenario to flex their muscles with very little risk.
Saakashvili with his dubious democratic credentials, lack of cohesion, failure to grasp the basics of lessons learned from that region and his puerile arrogance- gave Russia just that.

In a way with his actions not very un-similar to gangsterism, he idiotically gave Russia the perfect alibi.

Russia for all we know, could have planned this invasion in advance and just slowly fanned the flames and keep up the provocations for a long time, till the other party responded out of proportion.
Georgia’s President, not just blinked but had a bad REM episode, his eyes up and down and his incoherence breathtaking.

Thinking that you can provoke to the breaking point a country like Russia, starting military actions (to restore Constitutional Order- he grandly said in a TV address to His People, as Com. in Chief) believing (calling too) that the WEST/USA will start a war for you with a Major Nuclear Power, was pure Lunacy, something that could have ended only one way, in defeat.

The guy to me seems Irrational, Neurasthenic and very ill prepared to understand his folly, even now.

Russia was very weak when Baltic countries left, she couldn’t do much with others too,so is trying in any way possible to connect, bribe, intimidate its ‘near abroad’ to form a buffer, more so than to rebuild an ex-empire. They feel pushed to the corner of the world, NATO is getting up its nose and Russia is trying to draw a line. Has been trying for some time now, but Georgia gave them a clear reason to push back with measurable force. Enough as to send a message to the world. Saakashvili understands all of this but miscalculated hugely, naively and tragically.

In case anyone has any illusions that Russia is concerned about human rights, I wont be pointing out to Chechnya and its people, but to Energy War. That’s what it is and that’s what is going on many parts of the world. It has many names, War on Terror, rogue States, Freedom of Speech, but mostly is about Energy.
We are living in Energy Crisis and there are few states determined to by-pass Russia’s resources and not being dependent on it mean that Georgia had a big part to play. Accidentally.

In other circumstances, this would have been another regional conflict, with ‘boring reports (as usual) another story that will away on its own. Grozny was raised to the ground- but the Western Outrage was few decibels less than what we hear today.
If Russia had invaded the Vatican, folks would have been less shocked, the blame Russia is getting is out of proportion with the ‘normal’ course these stories take.

Russia wants to control all existing pipelines and also the ones that will be built in the future – with Western money- and is determined not to let a little neighbour interfere with the Main Plan.

So the only way is not to fight and push away Russia, but engage and also show them some trust too, times have changed and we need Russia as much as it needs us. Lots of talk is about Turkey joining the EU, why is Russia less worthy or less European. Who decides?

The energy crisis shows no sign of abating and there’s little hope in the future. Simple as it seem, the West is doing very little (apparently) to cut forever the dependency on crude oil/gas and find new methods that lessen and even replace the present demand. So much power, knowledge and resources and still allowing itself to be controlled by short sightedness, momentary monetary interests and with nothing planned.

No wonder there are wars now and more many more to come. As if the history and present lessons aren’t enough, seems like someone is wagging a stick and telling the Powers that have the means to change things, Look, You want Oil, Gas, Energy…well, go to Venezuela, Iran, Algeria, S. Arabia and…can it get any worse, well yes it can…as they don’t need you as buyer anymore, your money doesn’t have the power. China, India, Japan, Brazil have the cash and buy with no questions nor do they have any qualms from whom they buy it from.

So the west is left with few choices. Either discover new methods and use energies alternative to oil or risk going to war anytime a conflict flares in these countries, near these countries and in the countries surrounding these countries. That means most of the globe and that means mostly war.

The long term consequences are that oil and gas one day will run out, but then we’ll all be friends, with nothing to fight over about and ‘freezing’ in solidarity as a planet... if there will be any of us left- from wars fought for Oil/Gas…a damn vicious circle.
Will it ever be broken?

[Judith]

As an aside, President Kennedy did try to invade Cuba - at the Bay of Pigs in 1961.

For the future, the West and Russia just have to find ways of accommodating one another's interests. I find the fact of Russians being linked financially with Europe very consoling. I saw lots of Russian tourists in Paris this year. That is very positive also.

Europe may overly dependent on Russian resources but surely there are lots of Russians who would lose out financially if that trade were truncated. There is nothing like mutual self interest to keep affairs between nations running smoothly.

[Francois D]

At this price you may build three hospitals very well equipped(500 beds each).

[Mary Fernandez]

Azloon -

I switched to their English page:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/

over on the right under 'Today's Stories' is "Germany's Loon Problem". :D
_________________

Daniel -

I won't blame the article on you. I just find it fatuous. I could have added that Kennedy took the Cuban Missile Crisis to the UN before the blockade and he resolved the entire situation by talking through backchannels.

The Bay of Pigs (where Cuban exiles attempted to invade Cuba) was actually planned by the CIA under Eisenhower. Kennedy, newly minted and much to his regret, just okayed it. He denied them U.S. air support and they were quickly routed. It was idiotic.

Cubans rebelling in Cuba or Osettians in Georgia are internal problems not invasions. The analogy does hold if you want to suggest that Russia is playing up the separatists in Georgia just like the U.S. was playing up Cuban rebels. Even then though, the U.S. was pushing for a non-threatening democratic government, while the Russians are attempting to grab land.

Georgia is no threat to Moscow, that's why it was so easy to roll over them. (Weakness is a provocation. Had they been put on the NATO path in April, Russia might have thought twice about using force and might have resolved this peacefully.)

Putin likes to send his messages very loudly. Whether poisoning people with radioactive sushi, scarification in the case of the Ukrainian President or the shamefully disproportionate use of force to march over tiny Georgia, he likes to make sure everybody 'gets it'. (Judging from the Russian talk here, he seems to have convinced his domestic audience that the Russian military is cutting edge when, in fact, they are mostly conscripts riding on 30 year old tanks.)

[rocket]

Dodo

"Is the moderator sleeping somewhere ?"

Once again one of our Gallic friends has the knee "jerk" reflex of censure.

[Roger Goodacre]

Daniel - 'crétin' is a bit too blunt for 'loon': 'cinglé' or something similar might be more appropriate. You don't want to upset your new(ish) friend.

[Daniel Strohl]

Rocket,

One can't speak of censure if the moderator removes crude insults (as an example, "stupid froggies" is an insult, if it is used in the first degree).

Insults do not bring a discussion further. And most of the time, insulters don't stand insults in return. In my opinion, DODO was right to protest, since he didn't know the whole story.

[Do-Re-Mi]

I love this, the Russians are coming. I remember when the socialist got in 1981 my father celebrated like crazy. The next day at school, our history teacher told us to prepare for the Russians tanks to invade, that made my father's hysterical with laughter.
Yeah, like la Riviera est si propre et sans magouilles. Sellers of overpriced real estate have sold the houses so many times that they have trained themselves not to sniff at the money. It's the ordinary people who pay for the greed and the need to show off, but "tout ce qui brille n'est pas or" and that is even more true sur la Cote d'Azur.

[rocket]

I repeat

Once again one of our Gallic friends has the knee "jerk" reflex of censure.

[grouchy old bat]

for "crétin" I suggest "cintré" as well as "cinglé" (it's good to have a range to choose from :))

Mary, Judith, for a full understanding of the Bay of Pigs crisis, I wholeheartedly recommend the movie "Company Man" with Segourney Weaver and Woodie Allen, amongst others. Things were much clearer in my mind after seeing it. ;D

The nouveau riche, whatever their nationality, always like to flaunt their dosh. These people are as uninteresting as people come.
When Prokhorov decides to sell that pretentious pile, he'll have to find someone even richer than himself, and he won't like that.

Dodo, you seem to compare this Russian zillionaire with :
"- An English invation in Aquitaine - Limousin
- A Dutch one in Creuse
- Eurabia in Paris"

OK, so there are wealthy Arabs investing in Paris and on the south coast in the glitzy fashionable resorts, but there is no comparison to British and Dutch settlers/retirers coming to France and buying peaceful country properties either for occasional or permanent use.
I worked in estate agency for over 10 years and didn't come across anyone with 496.000.000 €uros to spend. It's a world apart, no comparison whatsoever.

[Dodo]

rocket, I repeat

It exist something called respect and decency.
It is the frontier between educated persons and trolls.

[peter kinsley www.peterkinsley.com]

Nothing new about Ruskies on the Riviera: a slow drive can reveal dozens of onion cupolas on villas built by whites fleeing the red Bolshevic hordes in days of yore, but the new owner should ask for exorcism to be included in the price. The Belgian King built Leopolda on ill-gotten gains from crimes against humanity in the Congo where native failure to produce a rubber quota resulted in a chopped off hand, or rape or death. Leopold II bought Cap Ferrat as well as the Congo. He built three houses for his three mistresses, but, as a good Catholic, he feared death from heart failure while on the job, and a quick trip to hell without the wafer and chrism of extreme unction -- so in 1906 he built the Villa Mauresque for his confessor, Monsiegneur Charmeton, so that he could be by his side within five minutes. When William Somerset Maugham bought the Mauresque, in 1926, giving his wife, Syrie (daughter of Dr. Barnado) their London house, he heard rumours that Leopolda was haunted (the Belgian king died in 1909).
The Russian owner could call for the services of Dom Robert Pettipierre, the Benedictine who exorcised Spring Cottage after the Stephen Ward/Chrisine Keeler case, on the orders of Bronwen, Lady Astor, who told him to "clean up" Cliveden, the big house, as well. This had been the pre World War II rendezvous for the appeasers, the British ruling class who were pro-Hitler and pro-Nazi, and Dom Pettipierre went to work with his salt and holy water and reported to Bronwen that he had never before experienced such an atmosphere of evil, adding:
"There was a large accumulation from the past, some of it quite sticky."

[christopher muir]

By chance, I recently re-read the 1960s stage play The Physicists by the Swiss author Friedrich Durrenmatt, (Brilliant scientist feigns madness so as not to disclose atomic secrets.) The text has come to life again over the past week or so. The new Cold War will beckon politically-minded European playwrights to invent new symbolic plots. Were he alive today, Durrenmat might have placed some western and eastern leaders together in an asylum setting. The building they inhabit - in which they seek forgiveness for their sins - could well have been owned by a once-wealthy Russian oligarch, himself now also an inmate. The institution's spacious grounds would overlook Villefranche -sur-Mer.

[dot king]

grouchy old bat - how dare you imitate my style - even though you do it rather well!

I sometimes read the Alpha Mummy blog and find it very interesting as it deals with everyday issues of today's young parents/families; and it's often very amusing to read.

Occasionally I feel moved to comment, and as I really don't qualify as a young parent and shouldn't be on there at all, I sign myself "grouchy old bat".
I posted a comment there yesterday and forgot to go back to being "dot king" before posting here this morning!
Choose whichever pseudo you prefer when/if replying - I've walked right into this one! ;)

[dot king]

"I love this, the Russians are coming."
Do-Ré-Mi

"Reds under the bed" was what we said.

[JULES]

FYI : PAUL

CÔTE d'AZUR ;)

[azloon]

[PS : a good translation of loon in German would be "Vollidiot" :) - "crétin" in French :)] Blendi

i beg your pardon!!

a loon is a loon, not a 'freak' nor an 'idiot' (google's english translation of your suggested equivalents).

this bird is a noble creature, delightful in its playfulness, astonishing in its migratory pattern, monogamous for life (probably makes it somewhat uncomfortable for them to live in europe), and wonderful companions of nature during our brief soujourn on earth.

so, please heed Daniel and Dodo's warning to desist with the personal insults. as you might imagine, i take all comments about loons quite personally.

thanks MF for the english link. i had no idea there were loons in the baltic and north seas. that may be an excuse for me to grab my camera and head off for a personal bird watch. does anyone know the winter habitat for the european loon? the black sea perhaps, or the southern mediterranean? would likely be a warmer place to observe them.

btw, Blendi, your comments about russian zillionaires are right on, i.e. their motives for getting $ out of russia. mexicans used to do the same in the u.s. with second homes in aspen and vail and big brokerage accounts at merrill lynch. mexico is a bit more stable now, so the need seems to have diminished. the newest north american investors, fleeing political instability, are the hong kong and mainland chinese in the seattle and vancouver areas. same dynamic.

[rocket]

I threepeat

"Once again one of our Gallic friends has the knee "jerk" reflex of censure."

or now in the case of Dodo (who must always have the last word) whether it be on this blog or on others..namecalling

[Sick of it]

Russia didn't invade until Georgia started fire. Anyway, talking about the danger of strong Russia - what's wrong with that? Why isn't the country allowed to be strong? Are you that much scared by strong China? It is ridiculous. As well as calling Russia aggressors - comparing to USA which have had three wars outside its territory recently. But US are good and Russia is bad, there's always a good guy and a bad guy, in those movies, they do the same - fight, kill, destroy, but the good guy does it on a good purpose :) yeah baby.
Aren't you tired of being brain-washed and scared?
Russia has to protect itself, since there's too many hands reaching for its resourses, that's all the "danger". You say it's nothing wrong to have NATO by the border, of course, it is. Who are those missils aimed to? Who NATO protects from? Who is the NATO's enemy?

[Terry]

Daniel said:

"Translation :
The Russian Prime Minister Wladimir Putin is right now often compared with Stalin and Hitler - wrongly. In truth, he is a Russian Kennedy. And Putin's Cuba is called Georgia".

I feel that I will get heavy flak fire from New-Jersey"

Not from New Jersey, or at least from me. It's not an inaccurate description, although Kennedy did not invade Cuba. Still, in my opinion, Kennedy brought us to the brink of war for no good reason. Wherever Russia placed it's missiles, we had a vast nuclear sub fleet. The purpose of that fleet was to destroy the soviet union even if they took out all of our land based nukes in a surprise first strike. So, what were we really worried about? Putin, as you intimate, is being like Kennedy in that he is needlessly inflaming conflict that no one needs right now.

I disagree with CB's "The Americans should have realised that pushing Nato into the Caucasus and Ukraine would sooner or later goad the Kremlin into action." For those that have paid attention, Russia has become more belligerent over the past couple years under Putin warranting an extension of NATO further east. This latest demonstration is further evidence. Building Iran a nuclear reactor? There's a good idea. Is that a provocative act to the West? Hmmm. Nor do I understand what the "big opportunity" the West missed in the 1990s with Russia. Were we supposed to write their Constitution? Impose a real rule of law? Ferret out the mafia and corruption for them. This is something they must do on their own.

As for aid, we gave them $4.5 billion from 1992-1997.

[Terry]

As to the rampant "loonacy" that is apparently sweeping Europe, I am afraid this is global problem due to the internet. Fifteen years ago, our Arizona genus (get it?)would have been confined to writing his smarmy letters to the editor in some local paper. Like the plague, his rantings have now sprawled out over Europe a la (not d'uk times, daniel) the UK Times with similar effect.

[Don]

CB: “The Americans should have realised that pushing Nato into the Caucasus and Ukraine would sooner or later goad the Kremlin into action. Georgia's unwise attack on its separatist, Russian-defended, province provided the occasion. At the same time, Europe's western continental states have been over-indulgent towards the Kremlin, allowing themselves to become dependent on Russian energy.”

The Russians have been pushing into the Caucasus since at least Catherine the Great. By now it is part of their culture to be brutal towards their neighbors and smaller minorities and brutal to their own people as well. Look how they flattened Grozny. All the polls show they admire thugs like Putin as their leaders. America is unfairly blamed for the latest example of Russian thuggery in Georgia.

As regards the unwise energy contracts that the Western Europeans have made with Russia and, as a result, are now dependent on them,
it conveniently forgotten by Europeans that the Americans warned them not to get this close to the Russians in the 80’s when these contracts were first being contemplated. At that time, since the Europeans consider themselves much more sophisticated than the Americans in international affairs they went ahead anyway. Many Europeans considered Gorbachev’s Soviet Union to be at least as trustworthy as Reagan’s America. In the previous blog, many of these more sophisticated Europeans put America and Russia on the same moral plain. They have learned nothing from the way the Russians cut off the energy to the Ukraine and Georgia over a year ago and have learned nothing from Russian brutality in Chechnya and now Georgia. So, these more sophisticated Europeans will be dancing with the Russian bear for a long time with those energy contracts and they will have ample time to be instructed by history how the Russian Bear operates. They might even reconsider the supposed moral equivalence they now make between Russia and the United States. History has some harsh lessons to teach these Europeans.

[Chris]

It doesnt matter your GDP,spending on defense,or national population John, 6000 nuclear weapons makes mincemeat of the biggest nations.
And let us not forget, this is a 3ball game this time, with China vs Russia vs Nato, things are going to get fun again in politics.

[the smarmy presence]

[Fifteen years ago, our Arizona genus (get it?)would have been confined to writing his smarmy letters to the editor in some local paper. Like the plague, his rantings have now sprawled out over Europe a la (not d'uk times, daniel) the UK Times with similar effect.] Terry

Terry, how do you really feel? azloon has always had nice things to say about you. :)

methinks a vicious streak (common to the genus "attorney') is peeking out from behind your oh-so-certain sense of intellectual superiority.

btw, 15 years ago you were a punk-ass teenager, probably the kid in class who tried to make everyone else look bad.

cheers

[Daniel Strohl]

ROGER,

Thanks for the correction - my memory resident dictionary suggests also "cinglé" as a proper translation of "loon".

I had a look on www.dict.leo.org for the translation in German - I used Vollidiot (Voll means full, plain) - this is also a bit too blunt. The dictionary suggests "Bengel, Bursche, Lümmel" which do not correspond exactly either to the meaning of "loon" as used by the bloggers. La traduction n'est pas une science exacte.

PS : in colloquial French, one may use also "cintré", as a blogger suggested above, or "timbré". There is a goood joke about our gauchistes Besancenot and Laguillier : "C'est l'alliance d'un facteur et d'une timbrée" :)

MARY,

Thanks for the explanation regarding Cuba. I didn't remember all the details.

The link to the German loons is good. Typically German :)

More seriously, did you read the interview of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder ? He says openly what many Germans (or some Germans if you prefer :) do more or less also believe.

AZLOON,

You are the most distinguished loonologist on this blog and elsewhere !

[colin grayson]

charles , may I commend that you desist from ironic comments ?
much as they appeal to my sense of humour , I fear [ from personal experience ] that they will come back to haunt you

I can just see the quotation now ...

chief times correspondent charles bremner says people living in iraq , afghanistan , iran and sudan were all living under peaceful , civilised humane governments until the west came along ; and that it was obviously necessary for for russia to invade georgia to protect georgian citizens

[Lily]

[I threepeat

"Once again one of our Gallic friends has the knee "jerk" reflex of censure."

or now in the case of Dodo (who must always have the last word) whether it be on this blog or on others..namecalling]

Rocket,

Your insisting on this knee jerking allegation appears quite neurotic; hence, your reproach isn't convincing.

DODO,

Where there is censorship, there is thought control through repression.

The 'free' citizen's thinking is directed/guided within uncensored boundaries and only there. When you know there is no censorship you TRUST. This approach is more powerful because it enters (naïve) people's minds and hearts while there is distrust and scepticism where the leadership has a record of using repression to convince their people.

BTW: "who must always have the last word" - nice manipulative formula :)

[Rick]

Not so long ago, I read a play by the Swiss dramatist Max Frisch – Biedermann und die Brandstifter (Ger), Monsieur Bonhomme et les Incendiaires (Fr), The Fire Raisers (UK), The Firebugs (US). It’s all about pretending that everything in the house is hunky-dory while not very mysterious gentlemen keep taking incendiary material into our cellar – this, with predictable results. One fears that the allegorical warning is something mainstream European opinion would prefer to overlook.

Today, NATO Foreign Ministers seem again divisible into Biedermanns, on the one hand, and the more clear-sighted, the more directly threatened, on the other. Jean-Paul Sartre wrote about ‘inauthenticity’ and those ‘salauds’ who live/practise it. At the risk of the illustrious man turning in his grave, might I suggest that the statesmen of ‘Old Europe’ and their constituencies at large display the same kind of moral flabbiness that J-P S castigated ‘chez les bourgeois’?

Sooner or later, ‘Old Europe’ has got to shake itself out of its well-dined torpor-turpitude. It’s not easy; you take casualties – as France found to her cost today. But it’s about right and wrong, about loyalty and honour, and in the last resort about preserving ‘open’, pluralistic, and I’m not afraid of saying advanced societies. Splitting-hairs, a certain over-fastidiousness, cheap criticism of the more energetic, loads of bad-faith – too often, these have been ‘Old Europe’s’ key features.

Poor France, today you are suffering. But nobody must call you ‘surrender monkeys’. ‘stupid froggies', or anything else. The Germans are another matter, for Herr Steinmaier is looking distinctly 'wobbly'. DANIEL, you mention ‘Der Spiegel’s vision of Vlad Putin as a born-again John Kennedy; also the idea that Cuba in the ‘60s wass comparable to Georgia in the 21st century. Admit it, you’re being a tease… Besides, didn’t I warn you that the rag was ‘flaky’ when it came to analysis? You’re on firmer ground, though, when you anticipate our transatlantic friends getting hot and bothered, nay, well nigh hysterical. That’s why we Europeans must not encourage them in their negative stereotyping of us. (And they ‘do’ old-fashioned moral outrage rather well.)

How goaded those Americans must feel by the spectacle of erstwhile Chancellor Gerhard Schröder – yes, he who betrayed Germany’s post-war protector for the sake of a ‘marriage de (dé)raison’ with wobbly Jacques! He who sold his soul for petro-roubles – how goaded they must feel when ‘Softsoap’ Gerhard produces wild statements! Here’s a taster from that same ‘Spiegel’: ‘I do not believe that Russia is pursuing a policy of annexation. And I also do not believe that there can be a return to the status quo ante in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. It's out of the question. In my opinion, this has less to do with supposed Russian expansionist interests than with the wishes of the civilian population’. Frankly, Merkel’s twice the man he is! But then she knows Russians. And she knows the KGB, however it now calls itself.

[Terry]

Smarmy:

I think Azloon knows my sense of humor by now and realizes this is just playful banter between amigos.

But if he cant take a joke......@#@!#% him!

[valerie]

To whoever wrote that ''USA North American''... No. In fact, people who are citizens of the US of AMERICA are called AMERICANS, not north americans.

Show some respect.

;)

[Nick]

Russian oligarhs are out of control! These kids became corrupt and rich right from high school not because they are so smart, as some are trying to present. They have these quiet KGB and Government fathers behind them, people who fixed them to buy certain assets for nearly nothing when the Soviet Union collapsed. Now with oil and commodities and real estate money flowing into their personal pockets hundreds of people in Russia are starving or struggling with 15% or more inflation. And now comes Mr. Putin with his resurrected national pride idea. Don't worry about the prices, look what we did in Georgia! Aren't you proud?! We punched America (it deserved it anyway) And the anti-Russian frenzy that is going on in Western media does not help at all. Just a thought.

[chris ford]

John - "Russia has only 142 million people, which is less than the population of the Russian Empire at the beginning of the 20th century, and its population is declining. There are 23.8 million Russians between 20 and 30 y/o, but only 13.6 million Russians between 0 and 10 y/o, compared to 8.1 million French people between 0 and 10 y/o."

Yes, but 4 million of those "French" between the ages of 0 and 10 - are children of Muslim immigrants.

[David]

Don't worry about getting back to the Fwench current affaires when you are doing so well giving a valuable insight into other pressing and important things, like your Russian coverage, unique, insightful, clever, and as always, well written. Just keep on doing such a good job. I'll be glad to read your views on Russia, Georgia, or Sarko and Kouchner as you find good stuff to write.

[Roman]

I can not see obvious link between Russian oligarch buying a house and peacekeeping operation by Russia in Georgia. Can you?

The hysteria in US and EU around Russia is only due to the fact that Russia is an only country who can oppose the US dominance (maybe emerging China will), while EU is poppet of USA.

What russians have always been telling is that "If west says Russia is doing bad, then that is how Russia should do!" and historically this proved to be correct! Since collapse of USSR West kept telling, until Putin came to rule, that Russia was developing and everything was going well, 'cause Russia played the rules of the West. It all was said by West when Russia had the most difficult times ever.

Now as US sees potential rival accross the ocean, they need to isolate and distroy Russia. Before blaiming Russia for peacekeeping operation everyone needs to think who has been orchestrating all this conflicts on Caucasus. Was it really Russia though?

Re: someones comments on demographics in Russia. EU will lose identity in a couple of decades, and become AfroAsianEurope, and there will be a time when European people will migrate to Russia due to ethnic reasons and conflicts! Time will prove who is right or wrong!

[peter kinsley www.peterkinsley.com]

Valerie -- yes, it is confusing, with the fight between the American North and the American South, those in the South still waving their Southern flag and mad militarists from the North sporting 7th Cavalry hats, and then the continent of South America where no-one says "I'm a South American" and then we have the Cherokee and the Sioux etc who are now native Americans (Not Indian Americans because that would be confused with Indians, who are from Calcutta, etc, and why the British call Native Americans Red Indians and Yanks think they are referring to Calcutta commies, and then there are the African Americans and the Irish Americans and the Italo Americans and lots of Cuban Americans spreading Spanish throughout the land.
All very confusing....
Drinking in Mixters bar, Minneapolis, a large Sioux Indian, a genuine native of that land, asked me if I had been to school in England. "And what did they teach you about Columbus?"he asked. "Yeah, they taught you that Columbus discovered America. Today they are trying the Moon shot. You know what they gonna find when they get up there? A bunch of ferkin Indians and they gonna take it away from them."
P.S. To know where all the aggression comes from, read the list of names of soldiers in the army at the time of Custer etc: Scottish, Irish, English mainly; no Italian or French or South American names, i.e. no Latins, and not one Jewish name.