Back to the future with the old superpower
As the sun rose over a hot Moscow this morning, it was hard not to imagine that we are in the remake of an old movie. I was criticized by some here yesterday for making the cold war comparison, but it’s difficult to escape.
The radio I was listening to was not the old Radio Moscow of Soviet days. But Vesti FM, all jingles and sizzle, opened the morning news with an attack on the United States for fanning the flames of cold war via the Caucasus. The Georgian attack on South Ossetia was part of a plot masterminded by Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, we were told. The war-mongering neo-conservatives are using it to get the Republican John McCain elected to the White House in November. The Washington plot line, widespread in Moscow commentary this week, was last heard in the days of Presidents Andropov and Reagan.
The world is a different place since those times a quarter of a century ago, but the plot is familiar. The Russians are using military power to assert their authority over troublesome small neighbours in their “near abroad”. The Americans are flexing their muscles and trying push the frontiers of the Atlantic alliance eastward – this time into the Caucasus, a region which Russia has for centuries deemed to be its back yard.
As President Bush ordered the US military to take humanitarian relief into Georgia, Condaleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, made a direct comparison:
“This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russia can threaten its neighbours, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed.” Just like the old days, the tough stance in Washington is making the Europeans nervous.
The old-style language is all over the Russian media, voicing defensiveness and anger over what is seen as bullying by what used to be the other super-power. “The West has spent a lot of time, energy and money to teach Georgia the tricks of the trade … to make the country look like a democracy,” said Vasily Mikhachev, a former Russian ambassador to the EU. “We and many other nations see through this deceit. We understand that the seditious tactics of the so-called colour revolutions are a real threat to international law and the source of global legal nihilism.”
Last night, Sergei Lavrov, the Foreign Minister, a blustering but suave type, said Washington had been playing a "dangerous game" .
This time around, the Russians have more ammunition for the war of words since the Washington administration has put raw ideology high in its own public communications effort for years – especially over Iraq, as Russian friends keep pointing out. One friend made a sharp point: "In the old days under Soviet rule we didn't believe a word of our own propaganda but we thought that information was free in the west. We admired that and wanted to be like that. But we have learned since that you have your own propaganda and in some ways it is more powerful because people believe it. "
So how does this play out ? While most outsiders agree that Russia reacted with calculated brutality to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia last week, there is disagreement on the way the west should respond.
It’s the old hawks and doves argument again. The old Soviet bloc states of Europe are behind Washington and pushing for a hard line against their old master. Other Europeans and some Americans believe that Washington’s drive for Georgia’s Nato membership and a US s anti-missile shield have needled Moscow too much. I was talking to Carlo Gallo, a Russia specialist at Control Risk yesterday. The US would be making a mistake to revert to a policy of containment – the old cold war policy, he said. “It would backfire and play into the hands of hardliners who argue that the west is always conspiring against Russia.” You hear the same from the French, who are trying to play the role of honest broker.
Meanwhile, down in the Caucasus, the hot part of the little war is not yet over. The Russians are reported to be starting to pull out of the Georgian town of Gori – - meeting one of President Bush’s demands yesterday. And Condoleezza Rice is about to arrive in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, to bolster a government that President Medvedev of Russia calls barbaric and a perpetrator of genocide.


Well done Russia. Georgia is a US puppet on Russia's backdoor who was trying to get more control and got deservedly swatted. Imagine the US's response if Cuba tried to retake part of its island occupied by the US, this time right on Americas backdoor. To think the cold war ever really ended is naive. Its just in the upper rounds of a long fight with the US economically and morally weaker than ever.
Posted by: Liam Jones | 14 Aug 2008 09:03:03
Funny how the Russians are beginning to pull out only after C. Rice's reinterated commitment to Georgia last night and American troops on a humanitarian mission on the ground in Georgia this morning
As France 2 television said yesterday on their 13:00 edition
"Evidemment un succès diplomatique français."
Evidemment!
CB
"You hear the same from the French, who are trying to play the role of honest broker."
I would say moreso "who are trying to preserve the flow of oil to Europe at the expense of maintaining the Georgian pipeline and upsetting the dictator Putin.
By the way. Who was the only western leader to congratulate Putin on the Party's last victory in elections last December.
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/12/05/10172529.html
Oh, I'm sorry, who said that Beijing deserved a gold medal for their organization of the Olympics.
Posted by: Rocket | 14 Aug 2008 09:03:48
US even failed to lower it's embassy flag in Moscow in respect to Russia's day or mourning yesterday, in memory of 2000 russian civilians slaughtered in one day by georgian regime, trained and armed by US. Women and chilren were burned alive in churches, rolled over by tanks etc. All in the name of "democracy" by a "beacon of liberty". Does it get any more cynical than that? Do russians and ossetians are people with inferior rights to live than americans or british? Remember 9/11! Putin was the first to call and offer condolences and help.
Posted by: Anton | 14 Aug 2008 09:08:54
From a British perspective consider the British presence in Northern Ireland over the last 50 years, and the reactions of the south (including a planned invasion!) Are the British elite truly objective ?
Posted by: paul | 14 Aug 2008 09:16:34
Russia has a right to protect its citizens. Russian peacekeepers were in Ossetia on the UN mandate. The Georgians all of a sudden started a slaughter, attacked Russian peacekeepers and Ossetian (or their own???) civilians.
If a person kills another person, presumably he/she goes to jail. If one person orders to kill 1600 civilians, he gets "Oh poor freedom-fighter, little Georgian leader against the Russian evil monstre, let's support him". It's like human brain is not able to deal with that figures. Georgian president is a war criminal and he must be arrested. Russia is not USSR anymore, but it was in Ossetia to stop the slaughter while UN Security Council was dissapointedly inefficient just as other European structures. 1600 dead is the price Saakashvili was happy to pay for mas-media promotion and "evil Russia" image creation. This is awful,this should not repeat.
Posted by: Victoria | 14 Aug 2008 10:29:31
It looks like the war in Iraq is a real problem, in terms of PR. If you elevate one imaginary threat to the level of real, then the real threat can get "relativised" to that of an imaginary one. The underlying problem however is the following. After the fall of Communism, the Russians never were brought to account for the Communist era like the Nazi's were at Nuremburg. And until this happens, the free world will encounter these types of episodes. It does feel like history will repeat itself.
Posted by: Peter | 14 Aug 2008 10:40:38
Saakashvili as well as Stalin and Hitler is calamity and disaster for their nations! But Saakashvili and Ushenko(Ukraine) are servants of bloody politicians from US and they make what wants these monsters.
Posted by: victor | 14 Aug 2008 10:57:00
Thank you for your article. I am not always in agreement with your opinion, but I found this one interesting and well balanced.
The lesson Europeans - i.e. people and not politicians, journalists or diplomats – have learned is: neither the USA, nor Russia are trustworthy.
Both are true dangers. It is time for Europeans from “Old” to “New” Europe to think what is important for them: Europe.
Russians and Americans can find another play-ground where to play their war: Cuba for example is a good one: USA can install the Bush’s missile near Miami and Putin his own near La Habana.
Posted by: Dodo | 14 Aug 2008 11:08:22
“Funny how the Russians are beginning to pull out only after C. Rice's reinterated commitment to Georgia…..” Posted by: Rocket | 14 Aug 2008 09:03:48
Yes, very very funny. I must say one of the funniest comment I ever read !
Posted by: Dodo | 14 Aug 2008 11:24:26
It is quite apparant that ex KGB Prime Minister Putin is the real power in the Federation of Russia and he intends to take back what was lost when the USSR was dissolved and ended. President Bush's foreign policies are in shambles and they should of seen this coming because they knew about Putin's ambitions just by the fact that he personally picked his successor as President. Russia is and will be a country to be dealt with in a strong way in the future as with the Democratic Peoples Republic of China. It is very possible that we will be engaged once more in a cold war because of our failed foriegn policies and bad information from our so called intellegence appraratus organization.
Posted by: Archie | 14 Aug 2008 11:25:05
Of course the US propaganda is as bad as the russian's one ! Remember the invasion and occupation of Irak that Americans call " liberation " ( What a joke !), the incredible jingoistic campaign of the anglo-saxon press against France, the so-called " freedom fries " and all that rubbish.
Russia is in his right to give a good punishment to Saakashvili this arrogant american puppet. Russia is a great power and France plus Germany should oppose american attempts to isolate or demonise it
Posted by: Michel B | 14 Aug 2008 11:27:01
To Peter
If you are taking about of somebody to be brought to account for the Communism I think it has to be the Georgians. Remember Stalin, Beria. They were musterminds of slaughtering millions of people. It is ironic. Sounds like Georgian leaders are notorious of killing others
Posted by: Simon | 14 Aug 2008 11:40:15
oh, yeah, the cold war...interesting comparison, perhaps Russia was to remain silent watching thousands of its citizens dying in Ossetia, perhaps, Russia was to bow before the powers of the West. But Russia did what your troops performed in Serbia in 1999. But Russia, allow me to remind, unlike West, did not start bombing Georgia capital (but West smashed Belgrade), Russia did not destroy Gory, and other Georgian towns while your troops invaded Iraq and killed Saddam. Perhaps Russia's actions were not equal to the situation, but were your actions during these 15 years equal? What have you done to Serbia? Right at the heart of the Europe! What have you done!? You prefer to remain silent as to situation in Ossetia! Have you talked to children who saw tanks mincing their mothers? Have you talk to people whose homes were destroyed in night by your HOLY MIKHEIL? Have you? It so easy to sit in Moscow in one on the suits in the best hotel and write articles about Russia. But when Bush invaded Iraq, you were silent, when Serbia was bombed, you were silent, when Ossetia's people were burnt you remained silent, perhaps it is time for you to remain silent too? For Mr President of Georgia is a lunatic idiot who thought he could solve the problem as easy as your bosses solved Kosovo problem. Two thousand are dead. Can you imagine this 2000 people. Unfortunately the status quo can not be accepted for who will return these 2000 lives? Who will give children's lives back? Perhaps Mr Bush? Perhaps you? Dostoyevsky used to say that there is nothing in this world which is worth a child's tear. Think iver it when writing about the democracy and Human Rights in EU, USA. Think of it.
Posted by: Ilya | 14 Aug 2008 12:00:40
As he left Beijing behind him, Putin was possibly drawing up a shopping list that looked something like this.
Pipeline (nyet). Missile shields (nyet). NATO (nyet). Bolster my strong-man image (da). Heighten patriotism (da). Needle Ukraine (da).
NB- Telephone Medvedev sometime soon.
Posted by: christopher muir | 14 Aug 2008 12:14:22
And for what reason exactly does Moscow plan to build five new aircraft carriers?Domination of Polar regions, Black Sea, Baltics?Re Ukraine/Crimea, is Moscow deliberately daily conflagrating very many recent and daily tensions there, accusations of arms supply to Georgia(anti-aircraft missles and aircraft so far unco-oberated),NATO, prospective Black Sea shelf gas, "difficulties" over Black Sea Fleet highlighted at Sevastopol, Moscow "very surprised" at recent events, hatred of a colour country?. There is an old saying that west /east divide is at the River Dnieper in Ukraine, how much would Moscow claim, back to the old Polish and Lithuanian territorial borders?Is Gori our new "Stalin-grad" to play on words , as then and there the Russians turned back the Germans seeking Baku oil supplies because the Germans were unable to sustain supply connections-interesting ironies now?What does Aizerbaijhan and other oil exporters of the region say about recent events, no word yet from them.
Posted by: Jonathan Jarvis | 14 Aug 2008 12:18:17
A lot has been made about the presence of Russian 'peacekeepers' in South Ossetia. This is like having foxes in charge of the hen coup or Taliban 'peacekeepers' in Pakistan or Afghanistan. Let's face it - 'peacekeepers' are supposed to be impartial, not acting as military advisers to a belligerent Ossetian militia. What was happening in South Ossetia was a straightforward Russian protection racket.
Posted by: Mark Collins | 14 Aug 2008 12:24:58
How sad that all these Russian apologists in Europe are just covering up their own cowardice opposing a nation that has saved Europe on countless occasions.
Sad pathetic effete cowards all of you. Too bad the end of Europe is within sight and you're too busy shouting down your American betters to realize it.
Soon you'll be answering to the unchecked Muslim hoardes you've coddled within your own borders. the really pathetic thing is that then you'll expect America to save you yet again. I say let the Muslims destroy you. Good riddance.
Posted by: Big cowboy boots | 14 Aug 2008 12:45:05
Russian Government brutality is limitless, but unfortunately not surprising. Just short remind of Russia's invasion history: Azerbaijan, Armenia -1920, Poland -1939, Baltic states -1940, Finland-1940, Hungary-1956, Chekhoslovakia- 1968, Afganistan-1979, Georgia - 1921, 1991-93, 2008
Posted by: Judy | 14 Aug 2008 12:57:22
I notice one thing. The west press practically sinks that the war was between South Ossetia and Georgia. If so, I have one question: “In all probability, West has confessed South Ossetia and Abkhazia independent countries?”
Posted by: Sergei | 14 Aug 2008 13:00:55
Its typical US, who thinks only they have the last say in everything. I'm not for war, but I'm against US view of an unilateral world where the only superpower is the US. Russia did what it thought to be right. US does that all the time.
Posted by: ItDoesntMatter | 14 Aug 2008 13:09:35
Some of the statements and comparisons in these comments are blatantly absurd.
Russia is up to it's old tricks again which is hardly surprising because the KGB are still in charge.
The population of Georgia are obviously Georgian - even if Russia has been handing out passports like confetti. If they wish to become Russian it is only logical that they go and live on Russian territory.
Russia obviously wants to recreate it’s sphere of influence.
We've obviously caved in because we need Russian oil and gas.
We're weak, Russia is strong and Putin is showing us he can do what he likes, that's what this is about.
The question we really should be asking is who’s next.
Posted by: Martin Carnaffin | 14 Aug 2008 13:17:15
I don't think Bush and Rice are in any position to lecture any other nation about invading a sovereign nation.
If Russia moved into the US backyard, the US would have done the same thing. Heck, they've been known to assassinate leaders who harboured communist/pro-russian sympathies.
Condoleeza Rice has to be one of the most useless people on planet earth! She and her crew have taken US foreign policy into the gutter. Their arrogance breathtaking. This woman is supposed to be a Russia specialist. She, of all people, should understand the Russian culture and character and know that lecturing them is not the way to resolve this crisis.
Seriously, when have the French ever been "honest brokers" in anything? Sarkozy is desperately trying to make France seem like a first tier power, which it is decidely not. His presence in Moscow was due entirely to the coincidence of him holding the EU presidency.
I said it yesterday, I'll say it again: this is a pissing contest between the Russians and the Americans. The French should stay home.
Posted by: Daisy | 14 Aug 2008 13:24:30
This would have all been avoided if the US would not have tried stealing 15% of Serbia's territory (KOSOVO) and handing it to a bunch of Albanian Muslims. The Albanians are NOT independent but instead simply allowed to be there by the US while the US set up its largest military base in Europe. John Bolton (Bush's own hand pick to the UN) warned that this was a horrible illegal policy that would only cause severe problems more independence bids around the world INCLUDING the one in Georgia. All the US needed to do was talk to the Serbs and they could have got all the oil routes they wanted without stealing part of their country which only 40 nations recognize. Now, we have Moscow flexing its muscles using the United States actions in Kosovo as the pretex to what it is doing. In the end, it is Serbia and Georgia who have been urinated on by two superpowers who are playing a dangerous game that unfortunately the United States started! Don't call me a Russian lover, I am a conservative Republican who saw this was a dangerous Elmer Fudd Foreign policy from the beginning and Daffy "George" Duck is seeing it through. END OF STORY.
Posted by: peter | 14 Aug 2008 13:25:26
Excellent! Putting historical facts into perspective shows an intelligently-written and unbiased article. One thing I think is missing; however, is illustrating the distinction between Iraq and Georgia--I see so many making the comparison when there is NO comparison. The war in Iraq is backed by a dozen UN resolutions. South Ossetia is internationally recognized as part of Georgia. There is no reason whatsoever other than aggression and expansion that Russia would invade Georgia. It sadly amazes me to see people high-fiving the Russians for killing thousands of innocent people because they somehow see this as “payback” against America!
Posted by: Abe | 14 Aug 2008 13:28:56
to Mark Collins
Impartial peacekeepers as they were impartial in Kosovo? They just escaped when Albanians killed Serbians. Where can you find impartial peacekeepers?
Posted by: Denis | 14 Aug 2008 13:29:26
It's just a political game! innocent people dead. What for? For PR Saakashvil?
US try to get on with Russia neighbors, to have their own people in goverment, to infringe by them Russia's rights.
NATO lost its main aim.
We are against the war. Cold War also.
Posted by: Elin | 14 Aug 2008 13:34:54
Interesting article in today's New York Times about the negotiations and the "ceasefire" agreement.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/world/europe/14document.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Posted by: Daisy | 14 Aug 2008 13:37:55
This is just like the annexation of Sudetenland by Nazi Germany in 1938.
Germany (Russia) felt that the Sudetenland (South Ossetia) should be under thier control and rule because of the people living in that area even though they were part of a differant sovereign nation, Czechoslovakia (Georgia).
You people need to study history a little bit more. If you remember, there was a war after that because the "West" didn't do anything to stop it. What was that war called again???
Hmmm...
Oh yeah... World War II...
Wake up people...
Posted by: Travis | 14 Aug 2008 13:40:08
I've read all posts here and concluded that you know nothing. Many people accuse Russia. Why? From second world war when we've won Hitler all Europe was against us, every time everywhere. USA helped to destroy USSR, how many nations was friends, including Georgians and all nations of Russia, not Russians only. And for example USA submarine has sunk our nuclear-powered submarine, we kept silence because it was beginning of Nuclear War between Russia and USA, end of world. Ok, USA has paid money, but how many people was dead. And now when americans appoint puppet government in georgia and want to control our west borders and put there nuclear rockets why must we keep a silence? When americans wants to occupy our contry we'll not be keep a silence. we'll be reply and it will be hard. Americans and NATO, Hands off Russia! And Europeans, open your eyes, you're puupets of america, and you're working for USA, for Federal reserve System).
Posted by: Azat | 14 Aug 2008 13:55:38
to Travis
You need to study history, it was not Russia, but USSR. And it's most bloody leader (Stalin) were Georgian, by the way.
Posted by: Denis | 14 Aug 2008 14:08:23
I think everyone should take a step back. We can't let Russia go about crushing its neighbors, but we must realize that Georgia is in the Russian sphere of influence. We also have to understand that this is about the wealth of Russia, and not Georgia or Otessia (oil pipes are in the break away areas). I think we need to encourage a cease fire with less rhetoric, then we need to completely re-evalute our (America's) foreign policy with Russia. We might be able to give a bit (no missle shield), but at the same time gain (support for freedom of former Soviet client states and friendlier relations with Russia). I don't envy policy makers, there is a lot of mistrust on both sides that is rearing its ugly head, but neither of us wants another cold war, we should be able to work something out, but if push comes to shove, America has to stand up for freedom of democracy (which would be a nice change from corporate globalism). That is why I believe we are a world power. Maybe this should serve as a wake up call to us. America doesn't exist for its corporate hanchos to get 15% raises a year while its middle class goes bankrupt, America exists for a beacon of freedom and stability in the world.
Posted by: infocyde | 14 Aug 2008 14:38:33
This is just like the annexation of Sudetenland by Nazi Germany in 1938.
:) Except for several subtle difference though -- Georgia attacked Ossetia with aviation and heavy artillery when the whole world watched the Olympic ceremony...
And Nazis did not pull back (which Russia hopefully will do).
I'd say it's just like bombing Belgrade by NATO, what's the difference, really?
Posted by: Dmitri | 14 Aug 2008 14:39:02
Old-style language is all over the Russian media, really?
Have you read Washington Post or Wall Street Journal recently? Or watched CNN and BBC showing georgian artillery shelling Tskhinvali with the title "Russia invades Georgia"?
May be you should take a careful look at your media first?
[Thanks Tatania, I think I made that point in the post -- that western media can do propaganda too. CB]
Posted by: Tatiana | 14 Aug 2008 14:43:39
I find the whole situation ludriocus and you have to be narrow minded to believe in the anti US rehtoric. An invasion of this scale is something that cannot be planned overnight. Clearly Russia have been fanning the flames for months and was looking for an excuse.
Hitlers did the samething when he crossed the Rhine.
Are we going to make the same mistake twice?
Posted by: Jamie | 14 Aug 2008 14:47:16
To Daisy (1)
"I said it yesterday, I'll say it again: this is a pissing contest between the Russians and the Americans. The French should stay home."
Answer: What contempt .. It is fortunate that Europe begins to awaken .. because letting superpowers face to face leads us straight to disaster.
To Daisy (2)
"Interesting article in today's New York Times about the negotiations and the "ceasefire" agreement."
Yes this article is interesting. It's a remake, nearly word to word, of another published today in Le Figaro:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2008/08/14/01003-20080814ARTFIG00020-la-longue-journee-de-mediation-de-sarkozy-.php
Le Figaro (google translation)
".../...The atmosphere was surreal," says a diplomat. And to the surprise of Nicolas Sarkozy, Mikhail Saakashvili did not intend to let it go. "Objectively, Saakashvili had no more room for manoeuvre, but it was more combative than the previous day," a witness of the scene. An adviser "American" focuses on the shoulder of Georgian President and rejects the word "status" in the sentence which proposes "the launch of international negotiations on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
That it does. It is past midnight, and Sarkozy calls Medvedev. "Remember tomorrow morning," replied the Kremlin. Nicolas Sarkozy insists. Finally, Dmitri Medvedev is at the end of the line. The French obtained the agreement of his Russian counterpart. On leaving Parliament, Sarkozy crosses the presidents of Ukraine, Baltic and Polish. It is one o'clock in the morning, and the crowd of supporters of Saakashvili has dispersed.".../..."
I hope that you are reassured about the fact that Saakashvili is "well advised".
PS On the official video of the press conference at the Kremlin on Monday, we can see, in several sequences, our friend CB, very serious and careful, not very far from his friend BK ..
http://www.elysee.fr/accueil/
Posted by: Francois D | 14 Aug 2008 15:07:49
To Travis.
"You people need to study history a little bit more."
This is a very good point. So, just facts (to study history):
1) 1920 - During the first genocide of Ossetians Georgia killed 20.000 people (http://osgenocide.ru/);
2) 1989-1991 -- Georgians started the second genocide of Ossetians (http://osgenocide.ru);
3) August 8, 00.06 (at night!) -- Georgian artillary began bombardment of Tshinval and surrounding villages: 1600 were killed during one night. In addition, 15 Russian peacekeepers were killed. All of them were alive people with their hopes and joys. What about them?
Posted by: Arkady | 14 Aug 2008 15:13:38
To Denis,
You simply don't understand the comparison between the Nazi and nowdays Russia, so you better study the history.
Now to all those who back Russia in this bloody actions. South Osetia is old Georgian territory and Georgians have nothing against Osetinas. This is an inspired conflict by Russia to get control on Caucuses. The Russian Government propaganda works perfect to change the facts. Do you know that now when so called agreement was reached Russian troops continue explosions, support marauding and killing civilians.
Posted by: Judy | 14 Aug 2008 15:22:52
I would be very nervous if I was in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, or Ukraine.
Poland is always wanted by Russians. There are many Russians in USA. Maybe Putin should come and help Patterson,NJ or Brooklyn, NY. Every other Ballet instructor is Russian. Israel has many Russians as well. Maybe Russia can invade Israel and save Iran and Syria?
Posted by: Paul 2 | 14 Aug 2008 15:28:56
FrancoisD
"I said it yesterday, I'll say it again: this is a pissing contest between the Russians and the Americans. The French should stay home."
I agree 100% with you. They should stay home, make sure they bring in the cat and dog, lock the doors and seek refuge in the cellar.
Posted by: rocket | 14 Aug 2008 15:38:04
TO: Jamie
there is no wonder that such operation was pre-planned. Russia warned the World a few months ago and many times about the plotted Georgia's agression against Osetia. Unfortunately, you ignored this. Of course Russia had to prepare for such course of events. It turned out to be wise. Had Russia delayed rendering help, all the south ossetians would've been killed now.
Posted by: Vit | 14 Aug 2008 15:45:12
"...I say let the Muslims destroy you. Good riddance.
Posted by: Big cowboy boots"
Oh, I think it will be your own corrupt leadership that will destroy the US if it isn't too far gone to be salvaged.
Some facts...
Debt: America is in horrendous debt, debt that is held mainly by Russia's ally China, Russia however is not therefore Russia is able quite easily to enter a new arms race and cold war.
Energy: America can supply only 15% of its own critical energy needs, Russia can supply 100% of its critical energy needs and supplies also continental Europe 75% of its critical natural gas.
Military: America is hard pressed to support its endeavours in two small countries, it has a burgeoning naval fleet and incredibly massive overheads whilst pursuing technology projects of little use and such as the Patriot system that are in use have a huge failure rate, Russia has conscription, has advanced its technological lead according to the Pentagon by some 15 years, have proven weapons system in use and can at need call a standing army of many millions.
So all Putin has to do this winter is freeze continental Europe into submission by turning off the gas, he is not compelled to sell it to anyone and China will always buy any surplus.
The people of Poland and Ukraine will also find themselves without power or heat this winter coming and seeing as Iran, Venezuela both allies of Russia will likely follow suit, the economies of Europe will begin to suffer, people will revolt and governments will find themselves stripped of pro US politicians fairly quickly.
America will act in futility, it will threaten and bluster but in the end it will not be able to do a damned thing because it won't be able to threaten Venezuela or Iran as they will both cease oil exports to the west with China buying it all, America's economy will fail at this point because very little will be traded in petrodollars if Venezuela ceases supplying the US, America at this point will be facing a 35% critical shortfall in oil imports at the loss of Venezualan oil alone, with the rest of the west clamouring for oil at this point and Europe offering the more valuable Euro over the worthless dollar, the US will be in a crisis.
And by this time, the rhetoric is cranked up a notch, America threatens China with sanctions to try and break the alliance there, China junks its dollar holdings and overnight the US is dead in the water...
And all without a shot being fired and all at the hands of the US who pulled themselves down into the abyss too.
And as for WWII, the American's only came in once Britain was on its knees and it looked like Hitler consolidating Europe would be far too powerful to stop if he decided to attack the US, it was never done to help Europe or Britain, it was to save themselves and in the process ripping off as much money as they could get, any military analyst would point out also that it was Russia that ended Hitler's war who lost millions of soldiers in taking Hitler down...
So I would appreciate it if Americans would stop asking us over here to be grateful for being ripped off by a people who quite happily stood on the sidelines for two years whilst we starved and were bombed daily.
And a point here that Hitler was put into power by the American elite, it was us here in Europe, it was us here in Britain that took the brunt for American adventurism.
Posted by: Ian Watson | 14 Aug 2008 15:45:45
Francois D:
1] I will take the Times over Le Figaro, which is nothing more than Sarkozy's propaganda machine.
2] "Answer: What contempt .. It is fortunate that Europe begins to awaken .. because letting superpowers face to face leads us straight to disaster."
Hmmm, is this the same Europe that colonised and decimated half the world? That enslaved Africans? That gave the world Hitler and Bonaparte? Is this the same Europe who had to be rescued not once, but twice in the 20th century, from German aggression? Spare me.
Posted by: Daisy | 14 Aug 2008 15:48:36
To ABE
I'm deeply sad to read about Russians "killing thousands of innocent people". I quite understand why CNN is telling the lies about this situation but I do not understand why people make their decisions basing on what their TV says.
I don't know about South Ossetia, but I've been to Abkhazia last summer and I heard their history from the people: how the Georgian Stalin re-joined their republic from Russian SFSR to Georgian SSR (just a small movement inside the enormuos country, who cared?(and who dared to care?)). How the Georgians came and surprisingly forbad using and even teaching at schools on the Abkhazian language. And how their hatred to the new hosts of their native land grew. And that they'd rather be dead than experiencing Georgians mastership again.
It's obvious that Saakashvili had chosen their death. He has his reasons and his morals. I don't think that people should die as Ossetians have. I liked that people very much. Please come and talk to them and then make up your mind.
Posted by: Anastasia | 14 Aug 2008 15:54:38
Vasily Mikhachev, a former Russian ambassador to the EU. “We and many other nations see through this deceit. We understand that the seditious tactics of the so-called colour revolutions are a real threat to international law and the source of global legal nihilism.”
My dear Vasily the big mistake that Putin is doing now is to give to the Europeans and Americans a great chance to strenght NATO until the point to beat you in Ukhrain, Georgia , Baltic States, Moldavia with all our hate, soft power and hard one because Putin succeeds brillantly to make Russians our ennemy again for the next 10 years. And speaking about your allies, I could say as I am Chinese that you are only a power like Saoudie Arabia with trees and your allies ( Kazakstan? )are weak as you are.
Posted by: DavidSalome | 14 Aug 2008 16:01:05
Russians declared cease fire before Bush demands. Nobody here gave it a damn. If you feel righteousness in your deeds why should you. Why Russia won? - because the Truth was on our side. Why US lose? - You can brainwash your people, you can even deceive yourself but you can't cheat the Truth.
Posted by: Vit | 14 Aug 2008 16:05:50
whatever happens those in power know better than us and media is only their instrument to build public opinion. in these situations we just need to stay smarter and not to get lower to a cattle level.
no matter how emotional you will get about any situation they will decide without asking your opinion. first, because they know better what really is going on. secondly, they have their own intentions and goals for their own countries. and when they decide they will let you know and they might put it in a proper way knowing their people's mentality, playing on feelings as well.
and as soon they tell you there will be more topics to discuss, more articles to read and more comments to write for us but that wont help.
Posted by: Rick | 14 Aug 2008 16:08:09
Posted by: Ian Watson | 14 Aug 2008 15:45:45
I'd expect no less from a typical European sniveling coward.
If it makes you feel better you may continue to point out your deranged fantasy scenario to your little yellow hearts content but frankly whatever happens you Euros will always be victims because you are weak, effete, and decadent.
Posted by: Big cowboy boots | 14 Aug 2008 16:20:10
There are many elements at work here. All of this happening so close to a US election--remember Nixon won in 68 after Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. If McCain is elected it helps Russia's hardliners including Putin as they will be able to point to US bully tactics. Republicans win White House. Both sides get what they want, but it will be average Americans and Russians and Georgians who will suffer most.
Georgia is Bush's deal, not McCain's. In truth, McCain could probably care less about Georgia.
But the question is what is McCain's true stance?
Rick Davis, who is very close to McCain, has worked for Russia's richest man, Oleg Deripaska for years. Deripaska and McCain have even met on several occasions. Rick Davis also worked for the 2004 pro-Kermlin candidate Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine.
Isn't Deripaska close to Putin and pro-Kremlin? I am just saying that this is an odd coincidence.
Look it up in a search Rick Davis Oleg Deripaska John McCain.
Posted by: Mary | 14 Aug 2008 16:20:14
A lot of people here are conveniently forgetting the facts of it
Georgia invaded in the middle of the night a breakaway region of its country, it used multiple launch rocket systems, heavy artillery and tanks in a brutal manner.
How many people were killed is in dispute, 1600? All we know is it was in the hundreds at least, we also know that they attacked civilian buildings deliberately.
So, the question is - why the hell would anyone want Georgia to have any say of this country? I hear lots of Fox news believing Americans and Europeans that cant tell the difference between Stalin regime and a mildly nationalistic Russia supporting that mass murder Saakashvili who aught to be strung up by his own side for the number of Georgians killed by his reckless actions, let along Ossetians.
Personally as a UK citizen I'd prefer if we could stop befriending scum bag countries and maybe one day go to a foreign policy that has some sort of principles to it, unfortunately we still seem to be supporting blood thirsty maniacs whenever they do something the politicians like for our short term gain and for someone else's long term pain.
Posted by: Gareth | 14 Aug 2008 16:51:11
The Wrld must be crazy. When Dr. Rice talks, you'd think she is a classteacher where medvedev is a pupil, or a mum chastising her Russian kids.
Accusing Russia of Cold War tendencies is to forget that Rice and other neo-cons with strings to the mlitar-industrial complex never wanted the cold war t end without US marines patroling Moscow, Yekaterinburg, Omsk, etc. Rice and Co. are 'babies if cold-war Russophobia' and are still trapped there. IT IS NOW CLEAR their ANTICOMMUNISM ACTIVITIES WERE TRULLY A CLOACK FOR centuries old RUSSOPHOBIA.If georgia is yugoslavia/Iraq, then S.Ossetia is kosovo. What is the deal madam 'teacher'?
Posted by: Kristofer N.K | 14 Aug 2008 17:10:50