Unpopular Sarkozy seeks relaunch one year on

We have almost had 12 months of President Sarkozy. A year ago today, the Sarko magic was in full swing as France gave him the lead in the first round of the election.

Now, the former Super Sarko is wallowing in unpopularity. Some surveys suggest that that he has begun to recover after the winter crash when he came off the rails with his divorce and giddy courtship of Carla Bruni. He has stopped being showmaster-in-chief and adopted a more sober, presidential, style, letting the government get on with running the country.

But an IFOP poll today shows that he has lost another point in the past month, putting him at only 36 percent approval. This makes him more unpopular than any president one year into office since the revamped republic opened in 1958. His 64 percent negative towers above the 47 percent registered after one year by Jacques Chirac, the other flame-out president.

The hardest for Sarko may be the finding that 79 percent believe that his presidency has done nothing to "improve the situation of France and the French".  Sarkozy bears much of the blame for failing to live up to expectations, yet it's not all his fault. Here's why:

The global slowdown and onset of inflation has chilled the mood, dimming appetite for reform and making the French more reluctant than ever to relinquish the comfort of the welfare state. And the disgrace that has befallen financial world has made it much harder for Sarko to make a case for selling the benefits of the market economy. So he is to some extent the victim of unlucky timing.

Sarkozy insists that he has achieved far more than people give him credit for. He forced the most pampered wing of the public sector to give up very early retirement, at the cost of only nine days of transport strikes. Unemployment has continued to drop, albeit slowly. He has engaged the labour unions in reform and begun cutting waste in the law courts, civil service, hospitals and schools -- in the face of continuing resistance.

This is true, but the reforms so far have been small-scale and the results marginal. Last month, when Sarkozy finally announced a supposedly drastic plan for trimming the civil service, it turned out to be peanuts. It represents only 0.1 percent of annual GDP, a drop in the ocean beside the 2.7 percent that the state is borrowing to stay afloat, stacking up the national debt. And those figures assume that France will miraculously be little touched by the global downturn.

The main problem is that Sarkozy has failed to explain what he is doing. He took office last May promising to unleash prosperity after decades of relative stagnation. He won a consensus with his promise of reform, but suggested that there would be no pain, just gain, from being allowed to "work more to earn more". There was no notion that a better future depended on sacrifice of the kind embraced by Britain, Germany and other west European economies that reformed in recent decades.

Then last January, he shocked the country by shrugging his shoulders and saying there was nothing he could do to make people better off "because the treasury is empty." At the same time, he has been posing as the scourge of globalisation, blaming Europe for France's problems and promising protection.   

No wonder France is confused. Barely a day goes by without ministers announcing some new scheme for cutting costs and ending benefits -- and then often cancelling them after a public outcry. Yet Sarkozy and his team deny that they are imposing any form of austerity.  The result is cacophony.  With no consensus on the urgency of a purge, it's not surprising that the public is on the side of demonstrating high school students and unemployed people who are upset because their benefits may be reduced if they refuse two job offers.

For those not following France closely, here's a little example of the muddle. They announced last week that unemployed people aged 57 would be required to look for work. Until now they have been dispensed with making the effort while continuing to enjoy healthy unemployment pay until their old age retirement pension kicks in at 60.  After protests, the government shelved the idea. Interestingly, the same day, the media reported a survey showing that French people with full-time jobs work far fewer days a year than other nations in Europe or the USA.

Sarkozy is going to attempt to turn around his fortunes and win new support with a big television appearance on Thursday night. He still has four years to run and he may well manage. Sarkozy -- and François Fillon, his prime minister -- are privately more convinced than ever of the need for deep reform. But if he is to achieve it, he will have to lift the smokescreen and explain clearly where he is going.

Comments

[Rocket]

Charles,
You explained the situation beautifully but I have one bone to pick with you.

"And the disgrace that has befallen financial world has made it much harder for Sarko to make a case for selling the benefits of the market economy. So he is to some extent the victim of unlucky timing"

Oh really!

and you don't think the problems in france are structural?

Why is the German export economy booming in the face of a euro at 1.6 dollar?

It's structural,cultural and civic and has to do with sacrifice and organization, words that are for others but not for the French.

No major reforms as of yet. But lots of talk.

[Yes, Rocket but I said partly to blame. Of course the main problem is the structural one. But overcoming resistance has been made more difficult by a world crisis which has made France more fearful than ever. CB]

[Romain]

Bruni-Sarkozy or Brown-Sarkozy ?
That is the question.

[John]

Charles Bremner wrote: "He still has four years to run and he may well manage." Frankly, I'm a bit surprised by your very kind view of Nicolas Sarkozy, and I'd be curious to know exactly what makes you confident about the future of this presidency.

I voted for the guy, and all I can say is one year on he's a big disappointment, and personally, unlike you, I don't have much hope for the rest of his term. If he's so unpopular now it's essentially because he has shirked the real big reforms needed, only making some marginal reforms that generate lots of protests and achieve very little in terms of economic growth and/or reducing public debt. Slashing benefits for big families is a typical example of what should not be done: it angers many people, it goes against the pro-birth policy of France that is good for the future of the country, and all that for insignificant savings in the public budget. Completely stupid!

These are examples of the real reforms that would really make a difference in terms of economic growth and reducing the public debt, the real reforms that have not been implement after a year in power:
- real reform of the contrat de travail, creating a single unified contrat de travail instead of CDD/CDI, as promised during the campaign; instead we've had an extremely timid reform implemented by the unions themselves
- huge local administration reform (merging communes with each other, disbanding departments, enlarging regions); here you can forget it, Sarkozy does not even think that a local administration reform is necessary; and the worst part, according to recent articles in the press it seems the idea of creating a Greater Paris is abandoned, that tells you a lot about the lack of will and the powerlessness of this president and government
- shops opening on Sundays and on evenings. We're still waiting for this one, supposedly they were supposed to do it last January. Still waiting. Another reform shelved?
- opening up protected businesses (taxis, pharmacies, and so on) and introducing competition in these sectors: shelved after a one day protest from Parisian taxi drivers
- real reform of the universities instead of the timid and limited reform of Valérie Pécresse. We're still waiting for selective entrance to the universities. Still waiting... This government has no guts.
- Attali Committee proposals. Supposedly 90% of these proposals were going to be turned into law by the government, and Christine Lagarde said it would happen in April. This is already the end of April, and none of these proposals has been turned into law so far. Another reform shelved?
- I could go on and on

So frankly, I'd be curious to know what makes you confident about the rest of Sarkozy's term in office. If you don't do the big reforms in your first year, you're unlikely to do them after. Sarkozy has little understanding of economics, he thought he could just force the economic growth up, by his sheer will, but unfortunately it doesn't work like that. Economists who've talked with him say he doesn't even understand the difference between supply-side and demand-side economics, for him it's the same thing, so how do you expect any sound economic policy from a guy who doesn't understand economics and who doesn't have the guts to listen to bold advisers such as Attali?

[Daniel Strohl]

"and explain clearly where he is going"

As my wife always says : "Il faut expliquer, expliquer, expliquer!"

And if this does not work, then I would say : "Il faut botter quelques derrières". And fire a few ministers and sub-ministers if they are reluctant to do the job for which they have been hired.

[Edward Johns]

This might all be another reminder that Governments in democracies have very limited powers of reform. If, as some suggest, the French population are lacking the "work ethic", there is precious little that the elected government can do. In the UK, it is suggested that the jobs which the indigenous population shirk are taken on by East-European immigrants. For whatever reason, this doesn't appear to take place in France, resulting perhaps in a slower economy ?

[Jorg Andersen]

It's amazing to see the same pattern so often: a reformist is elected with high expectations and then blows his chance for fear of losing favour. Sarkozy is all over the place promising everything and its opposite in order to please everyone. Every little but symbolic change has been abandoned -- the taxi drivers' and pharmacists' monopoly, Sunday opening of the shops and so on. If he can't get that done, how can anyone hope that he will deal with the big problems killing the French economy -- the horrendous labour protection, sky high taxes and the punitive bureaucracy that stifles the creation of enterprise... He has done zero to get to grips with any of this...

[dot king]

"In the UK, it is suggested that the jobs which the indigenous population shirk are taken on by East-European immigrants."
(Edward Johns)

Yes, the same thing happens in France, many building-site workers and hôtel-restaurant "behind-the-scenes" workers are immigrants, often "sans papiers".
There is a movement afoot at the moment, supported by the Big Boss of the Hôtel-Restaurant business, André Daguin, in which immigrant workers, who work, pay taxes, and pay into the social security scheme are asking to be "regularised".
According to all the news reports I've seen, heard, read so far, these workers seem to have the full support of their employers (who incidentally, claim not to have known that their employees were sans papiers when they took them on - mon oeil!).
If immigrants didn't take on the work in the backrooms and kitchens of hôtels and restaurants, many would simply close.

As for people over the age of 57y.6m. having the "option" of being "dispensé de la recherche d'un travail" - that is a real case of scapegoating. If your factory or office closes or you are made redundant for whatever reason at the age of 57+, the chances are you will be ADVISED to be "dispensé", and that by the ANPE, who know full well that your chances of finding a new job are slim, to say the least.

"dispensed with making the effort while continuing to enjoy healthy unemployment pay until their old age retirement pension kicks in at 60"

This is Charles' way of expressing it in his article, which is typical of an "ultra-conservative I've swallowed the blue pill" journalist (I mean it most kindly, of course).

Most people, IMO, aged 50+ would prefer to work, they have, in general, a work ethic which doesn't allow for "taking benefits".
The proportion they "enjoy" is 70% of their erstwhile salary - of course if you were beforehand a highly-paid ultra-conservative journalist (ever-so-kindly-meant), then you will have 70% of a great deal more than a redundant factory-worker previously earning the SMIC. If you have a family and all the general expenses that entails, then you are in for a hard time.

And, expecting people to take a job which involves a maximum of 2 hours' travelling per day to get to a place of work where they will pay you only 70% of your last salary (ditto comment see above re previous occupation - and yes, that's all they'll pay you once it's been written into the law that you have to accept it) is quite unreasonable anywhere, but perhaps especially in the provinces, where in an hour's travelling, respecting the speed limits, you could be expected to go up to 90 -100km away from home to earn nearly a third less and pay an ever-increasing amount for your petrol or diesel - not to mention maintenance of the vehicle - and indeed having one in the first place.

And as for the threat of world famine, including us - what happened to out butter, wheat, sugar, meat-mountains, and our milk and wine-lakes? These were said to be the result of European over-production, and we didn't give them away to stave off famine in Bangladesh or almost anywhere on the African continent at the time, so where they now?

There's nothing surer
The rich get rich
And the poor get poorer

Governments should also find ways of cutting down on their own excesses.
Tighten a few designer belts.

[Monika]

"Interestingly, the same day, the media reported a survey showing that French people with full-time jobs work far fewer days a year than other nations in Europe or the USA."

Mh. This argument is so often put forward as one reason of economic failure.

But:
In Protestant Bremen where I live right now they have approximately 6 days off less than in Catholic Bavaria. Nonetheless, Bremen is one of the poorest German states with high unemployment while Bavaria is prospering and has low unemployment rates. I conclude from this that the number of days off are not a determinating factor in economic prosperity.

[Daniel Strohl]

Rocket,

"It's structural,cultural and civic and has to do with sacrifice and organization, words that are for others but not for the French"

If one has a look right now at the situation in the US, one may infer that there are too some structural, cultural and civic problems.

And over there as well as here, words will not suffice. Seen from outside, it seems that the bandwagon in the US has got even more stuck in the mud than in France; as an example, have a look at the compared deficits and at the mess in the banks (our Jérôme K. and his bosses sont des petits bricoleurs besogneux comparés à leurs homologues de Wall Str. et d'ailleurs).

Of course, you will as usual say that Charles' blog is relative to France, and not to the USA :))

John,

"who doesn't have the guts to listen to bold advisers such as Attali?"

Les conseilleurs ne sont pas les payeurs.

"If you don't do the big reforms in your first year, you're unlikely to do them after"

Yes, may be; mais Rome ne s'est pas faite en un jour :))

[rocket]

I agree with you Daniel.

[rocket]

Daniel

"(our Jérôme K. and his bosses sont des petits bricoleurs besogneux comparés à leurs homologues de Wall Str. et d'ailleurs)."

Please don't confuse subprime loses and position losses.

SocGen remains the highest loss of all time by one trader in the history of the universe.

[rocket]

John

"- opening up protected businesses (taxis, pharmacies, and so on)"

I made my feelings clear on the taxis on an earlier post. On pharmacies I haven't looked at the reform.

A taxi license costs about 200k€ and the government proposed to create new licenses for free. That would have meant that the current licenses which people paid a fortune for and took out loans to finance would suddenly become worthless. It's like the gov't telling you your house is now worthless because they are building new ones and giving them out for free.

The gov't had good intentions and new taxis are needed but the method was completely wrong.

Unfortunately, I believe Sarkozy squandered his electoral political capital very early on by really rubbing a rich lifestyle in the faces of the French. As the old communist saying goes, he sold the rope to the people they would use to hang him.

The kind of structural reform that is needed in France will take years to convince and implement especially with the corporatism that exists here. He wanted to do everything right away and so a lot of poorly thought out reforms and promises were made.

If I remember certain quotes he made early on.

On ira chercher Ingrid Betancourt. On ira cherher un pourcent de croissance. Les caisses sont vides
Liberez Ingrid Betancourt Maintenant! etc

A certain remark at the Salon de l'agriculture didn't help either

Effective policy whether it be foreign or economic is much more difficult than throwing around sound bites. He is learning that lesson now.

Unfortunately a lot of his political capital is gone. So easy to lose yet so difficult to recover.

I think the French electorate understands that at over 50 years old one's behavior is more or less permanently riveted. Thus a lingering impopularity and suspicion of possiblity for change of personality.

I also believe that the French population has to open itself up to throwing off the shackles of so many preconceived ideas and also "la pensée unique". If it doesn't work than in 4 years they can throw him out of office.

It will take one hell of a lot of hard work for him to force a turnaround in public opinion without resorting to media coups.

Nobody in successive gov'ts has had the guts to cut of wealthy families from subsides for number of children, back to school costs etc. And these families joyfully accept these subsidies. France is a cow and it's people milk it for all they can. Both sides are responsible. Gov't and citizens.

John, like you I have heard a lot of talk but seen little action.

Dot - Retirement at 57 is an aberration wherever you live. Excuses can always be found. Let's loosen up the laws on creating your own business and give some tax free incentives and see what happens.

Daniel

"Of course, you will as usual say that Charles' blog is relative to France, and not to the USA :))"

No I won't. That is what you would like me to say I'm sure:))

The USA has problems bigtime but as for subprime, a lot of it is people's own doing thinking that bubbles last forever.

Thankfully the US economy is one of the most resilient in the world and can spring back within 18 mos - 2 years

Taking out easy to acquire second and third mortgages didn't help things. (no second mortgage exists in france)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_mortgage

[Daniel Strohl]

Rocket,

"SocGen remains the highest loss of all time by one trader in the history of the universe"

Yes, we have got this "record du monde". But fortunately not the record du monde for cumulated (subprime and similar) losses by banks. Our German and Swiss neighbours were also quite busy and not bad either :))

"a lot of it is people's own doing thinking that bubbles last forever".

In these "people", one may include many banks, albeit they should have known beforehand that miracles do occur only in the Bible :))

[Mary Fernandez]

Out of office, politicians are dependent on popularity. In office, they have to become leaders. Real leaders have to face unpopularity. To win reelection, he has to produce results and they have to show three years from now.

He should put his head down, paddle into the wave and emerge on the other side. Don't worry about the polls. Take bigger risks. (Big changes produce big results, small changes produce small ones). Every great leader has faced these periods of solitude. The question is does he have the courage.

[tia]

Now, 1.3 billion Chinese people remember him. We all support him as French president to maintain our anger and keep us amused.

[Sam Young]

Yes, i agree with the comments and your excellent analysis, CB.

But it's not enough to say that NS is no good. Who would be better from amongst the socialists? Only Strauss-Kahn has what it takes and he's with the IMF. Those of you who follow French politics will recall a (defeated) motion tabled by the Socialists to the Assemblée nationale a while back proposing to sanction the perceived excessive alignment of the French government with the policies of the US. Frankly, have they nothing better to do? I find this insulting to tax payers.

The French Socialists are still covered with the dust of old hat thinking. I keep expecting some younger and unknown modern socialists to emerge from their ranks; but it's not happening. And, that is why: as things currently stand, NS has a good chance of getting re-elected in 2012.

[Sam Young]

Question for Rocket:

"...second and third mortgages didn't help things".
Is this "hypothèque en deuxième rang" (or "hypothèque de deuxième rang") in French (just out of curiosity)
Merci

[S Briffa]

Just read this about Sarkozy on a Maltese online newspaper. Could it be true?

http://www.di-ve.com/Default.aspx?ID=72&Action=1&NewsID=50892&newscategory=31

[K]

Hypothèque de deuxmième rang

[dot king]

"Dot - Retirement at 57 is an aberration wherever you live. Excuses can always be found. Let's loosen up the laws on creating your own business and give some tax free incentives and see what happens."

Rocket, I quite agree with that, except that I was talking about people being made redundant for whatever reason, not early retirement - suddenly finding yourself unemployed after a lifetime can be a very unsettling and stressful experience, often with a long-running preamble of the threat hanging over the employee whilst waiting.
Setting up a business should be made easier, it's hellishly comlicated and the charges are high and compulsory whether you make any money or not.
The "new" businesses that the gov't says are being created and providing employment are all in "service à la personne" - not everyone is cut out for this. Also it's generally menial, low-paid work - and before long they'll invent a required qualification for that too!

Having the right to early retirement from a secure gov't position and being made redundant from a SMIC job at age 50+ are not the same thing.

Just an anecdote - a week or so ago I was listening to "le jeu des mille euros" on the radio and one contestant was a teacher in a lycée professionnel. When asked if she enjoyed her work, she said "j'attends la retraite" and went on to say that she was a prof de lettres and that her students were "assez nuls" or words to that effect.
I despised her instantly and wished fervently, fingers crossed and everything, that she wouldn't win €1000 - she didn't even get as far as la question Banco. The day after, the "jeu spécial étudiants" had a pupil from the very lycée, who, with his partner, won €1000.
Et toc!

[christopher muir]

"I am sometimes a fox and sometimes a lion. The whole secret of government lies in knowing when to be the one or the other." So said Napoleon Bonaparte.
If Sarkozy is following that strategy, video footage has shown that he sometimes chooses to play the wrong animal at critical moments.

[rocket]

Sam

http://tinyurl.com/4lmb5y

Not exactly it seems. (in France) Deuxième rang seems to be a compliment for people needing extra financing for real estate.

Second mortgage can be used as extra cash (mad money) by taking out a new loan on the accrued value of a piece of real estate in hopes that sometime in the future that real estate will sell for well above it's initial purchase value.

Unfortunately not the case at the moment.

[John Gregory Flinn]

"...to lift the smokescreen and explain clearly where he is going."

He's going to the next show, the next band-wagon he can exploit, the next big event where he may find some limelight to bask in.
And the next one is the French presidency of the EU. Have you seen his 'manifesto' with his big plans for this event?

He does'nt know where to go next, and is waiting for 'events dear boy, events' to sweep him along.

It all reminds me of Graham Greene's Mr Toad in 'Wind in the Willows'....
No offence meant.

[Olivier Lucas]

I completely agree with you and Daniel above saying that "The main problem is that Sarkozy has failed to explain what he is doing".
There is not enough explanations on what the government is doing.
What vision have they for the coming years ? What is their target ?
All that we want of Mr Sarkozy and his government is that they are accountable to us.
We elected them so that they carry out a mission of deep reform

[dot king]

"It all reminds me of Graham Greene's Mr Toad in 'Wind in the Willows'...."
John Gregory Flinn

They both wrote excellent books, but it was Kenneth Grahame who wrote "Wind in the Willows". : )

[Emlyn]

This subject confirms my belief that the French are a nation of extremists, setting their hopes too high on the new President and now rubbishing him. Then they will be able to say, "Ce n'est pas notre faute, c'est la faute de l'Etat!" Mitterrand too made many promises to reform society and was obliged to adopt right-wing policies after about a year, and the economic situation was less grave than it is now.

[MYOS]

The problem is most obvious with the Education minister: he keeps saying he will not discuss the budget cuts but will discuss reform. OK. I'm all for reforming French schools!
Except the budget and class cuts were announced without any reform being brought forth or even alluded to.
At this point, in fact, there's no reform project at all. Just cuts that directly affect kids, swelling class sizes in required courses and doing away with the few non-canon classes in the system (such as theater or music).
This epitomizes the governement: a chance at reform squandered and sudden budget cuts announced without a general direction or sense of purpose.
In my town, the local primary school has 139 students and will be reduced from 6 to 5 classes; 80 families are expected to move in when a new development opens, between June and September. Everyone can do the math.
(One class will mix grades.)
Same thing at the high school. Students currently are 28-32 per class but in algebra and geometry, they had 1 hour/week with half a group. This hour is suppressed. Same with foreign language. It's hard to envision a foreign language class with 30 students. Intro to economics will increase from 25 to 36 because one teacher has been reassigned. Precalc will reach 34-38.
(And the private schools are overbooked.)
So when the minister says his "reform" won't change a thing, no one believes him.
If he'd made the reform first, then reassigned teachers and cut budgets, it might have made sense, but right now it's impossible to see this as "good" for children enrolled in French schools.
And unfortunately this approach epitomizes the current governement.

[Terry]

Very interesting blog.

Daniel and Valentin gave me a lot of sh... several months ago when I said that I didnt think Sarkozy accomplished anything in the last year. Well, here we are.

CB said:

"Then last January, he shocked the country by shrugging his shoulders and saying there was nothing he could do to make people better off "because the treasury is empty."

Indeed, this is the problem with the so called conservatives. There's "nothing" Sarko can do. Ho hum. It is rather frustrating for me since, as a Libertarian, I am somewhat sympathetic with conservatives. This is not something a true conservative would say. That sentiment reveals Sarkozy's belief that only handing out goodies from the government treasury improve people's lives. Of course, most of our lives are made more expensive and more burdensome by government regulation and overtaxation. Sarkozy can make people's lives better by reducing taxes, which INCREASES revenue. When people have more money in their pocket, they spend it. When the government takes it, it usually spends it on wasteful expenditures. Sarkozy can also remove silly regulations that make it difficult for small business to operate. (Most people dont realize that SMALL business is about 75% of the economy). One thing he can do (has he done this yet?), is allow business to fire people. This will actually REDUCE unemployment. How about reducing the petrol tax, Sarko? Everything is transported by truck. Gas taxes are passed onto the consumer resulting in higher prices. He can ease the burden on consumers by reducing or (gasp!) eliminating the gas tax. Oh, how about your ridiculous VAT tax? How much does this increase the price of goods? It seems to me, you want to encourage people to buy goods. The more people buy, the more business profits. The more business profits the more people business employs. This is not Rocket science (i couldnt resist the pun). It's common sense. Except if your a lefty linguist.

The other thing Sarko can do reduce is the subsidies and the protectionism.
As I have said, ad nausum, here before. Government intervention causes artificial shortages and distorts prices. Our socialist green (green is red) friends have sold us a bill of goods on ethanol. I dont know about France, but the US government has subsidized ethanol to please socialist enviromentalists and to get agricultural votes and money. The result is increased demand for corn for ethanol production rather than food production. Prices for steak, chicken and dairy have soared since cheap corn is used for feed. Higher sweetener costs because the US uses corn sweetener in a lot of products. And, my favorite, the government actually pays some farmers thousands of dollars NOT to grow corn or wheat. (Read Heller's "Catch 22" for a laugh). All thanks to government intervention.

Sarko can start by eliminating some of these government interventions that cause higher prices and burden the consumer. It takes some stones to do it.

[rocket]

Charles,

The picture you chose of the President of the French Republique ressembles very closely to Corvax from Muzzy in Gondoland.

http://picnic.ciao.com/es/9823071.jpg

Was there any particular reason for this or am I imagining (LOL)

[rocket]

Terry

You can talk until you turn blue in the face but the moment you mention reduced subsidies most French one way or another would turn on you. That's just a fact. Anyone caring to dispute this I would be glad to take them on.

Terry you said

"The other thing Sarko can do reduce is the subsidies and the protectionism."

Too late! It's already in the gene pool.

[Roger Goodacre]

Terry, much wishful thinking. The French government is shortly due to assume the presidency of the EU for six months. Among the objectives it has given itself are a reinforcement of agricultural subsidies, and greater protection from non-EU imports. Also a desire to pursue harmonisation of corporate taxation among member states 'to prevent unfair competition'.. No guessing in which direction taxes are intended to go. The Baltic states, Ireland and others whose economies have been thriving as a result of low tax strategies are in the firing line.

[Daniel Strohl]

Mary Fernandez,

"The question is does he have the courage".

I agree with what you said regarding leaders.

The answer to the above question is YES. He has demonstrated that he has courage, physical one included.

However, I have doubts regarding the courage of some of his ministers and of several parliament members (UMP), who are already trembling for their reelection in 4 years from now. They are convinced that no painful change should be made in order not to displease potential electors.

If they prevail, adieu les réformes. And we will continue to slowly drift down. Furthermore, the presidential as well as the parliament elections will be won by the socialists in 2012. This is most probable if they have meanwhile shed "the dust of old hat thinking"; this would allow them to keep the reforms already made by Sarkozy.

[Terry]

Rocket & Roger:

Oh, I know it's wishful thinking. Because he would have done all this by now. Or perhaps some of it. He has chosen, like George Bush, to do very little economically. As a result, he will anger everyone. My guess is that most of the erosion in Sarkozy's support is coming from his base voters who are displeased he's done nothing. My other guess is that he will continue to do rien.

[Monika]

Terry:
"Sarkozy can make people's lives better by reducing taxes, which INCREASES revenue. When people have more money in their pocket, they spend it."

I think economy is rather complicated. Of course if the French spent more the government would win more sales taxes. On the other hand increased consumption means increased inflation increasing sales taxes but reducing le pouvoir d'achat (the ability to buy a lot of things).

To Roger:
I hope other countries will fight this because agricultural subsidies should be reduced including the American ones. It is absolutely desastrous for third world agriculture and is one of the major causes of the food supply problem that we face these days and that are likely to increase even further. I see a dark future there ... :(

[Helen]

Re the 'two job offers', the one and only time when I was on JSA in France, in 5 months, I got only one such 'job offer': I was told to apply for a secretarial position, even though the job advert said 'Bac pro or BTS mandatory' and I have neither. Then, after 5 months, I was given the choice of letting a 'recruitment agency' find me a job (as a cleaner or a supermarket cashier, since I dropped out of university at 20 with only 2 DEUGS) or be given a further 2 months to find a job (I had spent 5 years and a half working F/T with the same employer). I left France and I don't think I shall ever go back. It's all 'diplomes, diplomes, diplomes' over there.
And French office workers don't have such good conditions as British office workers either: free hot drinks, printers and computers in working order, no need to bring your own stapler and stationery, no unpaid overtime... Sarkozy's 'work more to earn more' is a joke.

[V]

"Sarkozy can make people's lives better by reducing taxe"

The rightwing governments reduce taxes in France for years already, slowly but constantly. Sarkozy himself has completely exempted of tax overtime working, transmission of property etc.

And it's not just employees. Staunch rightwing supporters are also the trade guilds who often hold monopolies in their respective fields. Or opening those trades to healthy competition is one of the most important economical reforms - and no monopoly holder is ever happy to let go of his prey.

Other economical reforms concern the efficiency of the state machinery. This is less an issue in the US, but a huge issue here, where the state is huge, and everybody spoil themselves by inventing ways to make tax money get lost through the bureaucratic labyrinth and into their pockets.

Competition, efficiency and tax reductions can be helped by careful monetary policies. Or France, as other european governments, has no say in this anymore (which is not completely bad - the English are not really better off with their independent sterling).

[Fernandez]

Daniel

Perhaps Sarkozy's current unpopularity (whether he likes it or not) will free him to do what's right. If he's going to be unpopular anyway, he might as well go for it. He can't take meek measures though. If he wants significant changes to be seen and felt in time for the next election, he has to take machete to France's beauracracy and tax code.

He seems to be a good student of everything every President before him has done. He must realize they all dipped their toes in reform and then jumped back rather than risk anything. He needs to just dive right in. He's already wasted a year.

[V]

John makes some very good points, only his is quite a pessimistic perspective.

Indeed the work contract needs to be simplified, and the chosen way to do it (pushing unions and corporations to do it between themselves) is simply brilliant: this way, a fundamental part of the work legislation becomes a matter of negotiation rather than State regulation. It's slower, but it becomes a private matter, the State can start to withdraw and focus for instance on streamlining its unemployment agencies (which is being done).

Greater Paris abandoned ? This is news. Any chance of a link saying that?

Opening up protected businesses was not shelved at all, but subject to negotiations (taxis did spend a lot on those licences, and it's not their fault).

As to selective entrance in University, John, suffices to look out the window and see the endless demonstrations just because they (students, teachers, bureaucrats) hate the Right. On the contrary, you should note that, for the first time, these far-left unions totally failed in their goal to make withdraw those laws. Darcos and others already say that egalitarianism (eg, no entrance selection) produces inequalities and failure. I trust Valérie Pécresse that what's been done is just the beginning.

Finally the Attali Committee proposals are forming the object of a law that is under discussion as we speak. You just can't expect any parliament in the world submit to a technocrat just like that. We'll see what it looks like and how much of the spirit of it has survived.

Pragmatism is important, John, but it must be accompanied by drive and optimism to make things move. Try taking example from the president :)

[V]

"SocGen remains the highest loss of all time by one trader in the history of the universe."

One month before, those positions were showing gains, a month later, they started to show loss, and their liquidation was done by the SG in the worst possible moment. Why does that smell like Kerviel=scaping goat?...

Let alone that the subprime mess, with millions losing their home to bank predators, is a cataclysm only comparable to Katryna and its catastrophic management by both local and federal administration.

[V]

TERRY:
"nothing he could do to make people better off "because the treasury is empty."

Terry, if we gave you a lot of s*t, it was maybe because the phrase was misquoted. Sarkozy said he cannot increase salaries of public servants, because he cannot take money from empty baskets (eg, referring to the huge French public debt) and that the only way to increase income is to work more (and he reduced taxes in the meantime).

As you see, things are a bit more complicated than Mr. Bremner puts it and than you figure it.

[rocket]

V

"As you see, things are a bit more complicated than Mr. Bremner puts it and than you figure it."

That's the problem in France V! Everything is complicated. Even the most simplistic of tasks.

As for the student protests.

You said

"On the contrary, you should note that, for the first time, these far-left unions totally failed in their goal to make withdraw those laws."

OH really!

This story is not over yet and you know it. It is school vacation time and the students have suspended their protests in order to take their vacation. (Only in France)!. Better to protest on someone else's time than you own.

[Frosbert Jocrisse]

I find it hilarious that all the true blue Liberals here are screaming about the State and subsidies at the same time as in USA and Britain their ideologists are begging for State money to counter the disaster that their liberal financial policies have caused. Markets are not self-adjusting. The French were sold nostrums.

[rocket]

Frosbert

Are you sure that you've got the definition of Liberal correct as it is defined in the United States because your argumentation seems to negate itself.

For reference for us Americans

Liberal - Leftist
Conservative - Rightist

[Ros]

S.BRIFFA: I must say your link is very difficult to believe - we'll see if it gets into other media like Rue89 or similar?

[V]

"at the same time as in USA and Britain their ideologists are begging for State money to counter the disaster that their liberal financial policies have caused."

I will add that this is not even a matter of G W Bush - these policies have been approved by Bernanke, Greenspan, along with finance experts (The Economist included...).
So they all agree on state intervention when their dear privateers risk bankruptcy.

" Markets are not self-adjusting."

Indeed. As long as ultraliberals are in denial on that, we're turning in circles.

[V]

For reference for us Americans

Liberal - Leftist
Conservative - Rightist

Posted by: rocket | 22 Apr 2008 09:26:41

Well Rocket, that too is more complicated than that: look at Terry, who claims himself rightwing and libertarian, but not really conservative. (meanwhile I call libertarian the extreme leftwingers in Europe).
Also see the Pennsylvania Reagan Democrats. Life is complicated, Mr. R :)

[Segben]

Correct me if I am wrong, but Margaret Thatcher, who cured "the sick man of Europe", was extremely unpopular until the British victory in the Falklands. Who knows what may happen to reverse Sarkozy's fortunes? Naturally, the very name of Thatcher has always been a dirty word in France, with her values of hard work and initiative - not least to French teachers, who have the shortest working hours in their profession in the northern hemisphere!

[thinknoworpaylater]

How tiresome it is to say I told you so! (I have been absennt from this page due to computer failure) Last year I began to suggest from September onwards that Sarkozy would (could not) deliver. Grain prices and oil prices were already rising. They havent stopped. In addition the sub-prime problem, which is not just an American problem, (since I think similar tricks have been pulled in the U.K.) have given the international banking system a headache. Self-regulating *Conservative* (Libertarian) positions are not going to help those who will suffer the consequences - pensioners who have invested in pension funds, share-holders, employees of banks at the lower levels who may lose their jobs, and new entrants to the morgage market often young professionals. Sarkozy cannot solve supply-side inflation, so I agree that aspect is not his fault. But neither are his policies likely to improve things. People dont always spend more if they have more money in their pockets: sometimes the just save it. (remember Japan) As Ive said Sarkozy will last one term and pas on to higher and more profitable things with all his presidential benefits. I dont think he gives a damn.

[John Gregory Flinn]

Thanks Dot King for that correction, I should have checked...

Sarkozy caught the public mood with his call for rupture, a break with the past and a need for reforms to get France moving again.
Once elected he set about putting reforms into effect by issuing directives to various Ministries, Unions and Employers, including leading some of the high-profile cases, such as pension-age reform himself.

However, as CB writes it seems very little has been achieved, except to stimulate confrontation and send his popularity to record lows. Indeed the only group of people with whom his overtures have had a positive response are Somali pirates!

He has probably concluded that the people most affected by his reforms did not vote for him, and are not inclined to change their minds just because he exhorts them to do so. Clearly appealing to their sense of public spirit, the nation's good or some other bla, bla, bla, does'nt work these days.

In modern democracies the citizens are no longer simply a resource that should respond positively to an employers' or government's bidding.
Whether they are consumers or employees, they will change their own minds, habits and attitudes according to the circumstances prevailing. Thus, Sarkozy has to develop such circumstances, or strategems which may encourage necessary change while allowing a system of incentives, benefits or payoffs as a result.
An example of how people may alter their habits is clear from the recent adverse rising food prices, and other general market gloom. Surveys have found that consumers have switched their shopping habits to the alternative 'hard discount' stores in preference to the more expensive traditional supermarkets.
Reforming SNCF, EDF and Education etc., may not be so simple and a more circuitous route seems inevitable before reform may be realized.

Providing it does not turn a public monopoly into a private one, selective privatization – part or complete - is a way that can and has achieved success elswhere, providing real benefits for the employee, the consumer and the government.

For example; the TGV rail network seems an ideal candidate for private ownership – subject to market timing.
It has a dedicated track and service infrastructure, unique rolling stock and a hitherto excellent public service record that would stand as a good standard for measuring future performance.
The employees would be offered discounted shares in the new private company and concomitantly new service employment contracts which could solve the problem of disputed retirement age and other 'spanish' (irregular) practices.
A notional TGV SA would be competing for business against existing alternative modes of travel - air and road travel – which places restraints on its pricing policies. Its resource of nuclear electricity ex-EDF would assure price stabilty against its competitors who are beholden to spiralling fossil-fuel costs.

Another area that seems ripe for action is the unbusinesslike monopoly of Electricity and Gas enjoyed by EDF/GDF.
Also, why do pharmacies hold a monopoly on medications that are classed as 'comfort remedies' with zero reimbursement? A whole new competitive market could develop in such medications which would benefit both consumer and the economy.

The resistance to his reforms seems to have dispirited Sarkozy, who probably expected quick solutions but now finds the answer is much more complicated than he envisaged. However there is scope to address the simpler issues of reform such as the undisputed areas of duplication and waste, and the curious monopoly of comfort medicines.
Doing nothing is not an option for a President of the Republic.

[dot king]

THINKNOWORPAYLATER - I think you must be Terry's "lefty linguist" - I was wondering whom he meant. : )

John Gregory Flinn - I confess to having looked up the author of "Wind in the willows" - I knew it wasn't Graham Greene because I've read and still got most of his books, but whilst I knew it wasn't right, I couldn't dredge up the other author's name, but recognised it as soon as I saw it. And of course your memory was in better working order than mine - you at least knew there was a Grahame in it somewhere!

[D]

Une chose seulement est possible pour ce gouvernement de tous les talents, n'est-ce pas ? Et une chose très tonique ! Que l'ouverture d'une petite entreprise est faite beaucoup beaucoup plus facile ? Retraité, anglais, et avec ma femme, un habitant heureux de France, je suis sûr qu'avec son intelligence formidable, M. Francais se réjouirais de créer beaucoup des entreprises de qualité tout de suite.

Pourquoi si difficile ? Pour moi-même, plus que 71, je travaille encore peut-être un quart et aussi je dirige à distance, à travers des agents et sans mon intervention quotidienne, une très petite entreprise de long-standing en Angleterre. Normalement je voudrais être heureux d'importer cette entreprise en France, mais c'est trop difficile, couteux, compliqué et .... irritant. Avant votre question, oui, je paie mes impôts ici !

[Romain]

At the end of the day opinion polls show two things : Sarko has lost his magic, yet French people do not believe le Parti Socialiste is able to govern efficiently.

[Terry]

John said

"I find it hilarious that all the true blue Liberals here are screaming about the State and subsidies at the same time as in USA and Britain their ideologists are begging for State money to counter the disaster that their liberal financial policies have caused."

Assuming you mean "classic" laissez faire liberal, I agree with you that there are a lot of hypocrites. I am not one of them. I dont believe in corporate welfare. The people who took the risk get the profits. They also should suffer the losses. I am almost always against government interference because it always manages to screw things up.

It's off subject but here's an example. The US lowered the interest rates to supposedly bail out "homeowners". But the banks DIDNT lower their interest rates for loans. They INCREASED it. So, are able to borrow for less and havent passed on the savings to the consumers. At the same time, the banks LOWERED the savings rate. I was receiving $500 in interest per month. Now it's $300. All of these lefties were screaming for government regulation and help. Well, we got it.

John, you might like this editorial by George Will saying precisely what you say.

http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/will042008.php3

[John Gregory Flinn]

"I find it hilarious that all the true blue Liberals here are screaming..."

TERRY & JOHN
I can't find the original quotation - but no matter.
There is nothing hilarious in this, it is a direct consequence of the paradox of the modern socialised state.
Such absurdities arise from the pursuit of endless regulation to 'protect' anyone and everyone from the vicissitudes of life - even when they do not deserve it!.
And there's more to come once the dust has settled from the current bear market.

PS. I agree with your general critique of governments - I would only add that their greed and cupidity is possibly worse!

[qwerty]

To Valentin and Daniel in particular who may also be interested in "counting reforms": here's a useful link to track "la rupture Sarkozy":

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/vi/0,47-0@2-823448,54-846317,0.html

[V]

Well, I wouldn't exactly say that looks very bad.
I'm sure Qwerty, John or Rocket think otherwise.
Life.

[Daniel Strohl]

Qwerty,

Thanks for your link, but I was not able to download its contents within a reasonable time, since my ADSL (French :)) connection is down; and my auxiliary dial up connection is rather "poussive" ...

I FREEd myself from my former provider two days ago since I was fed up with them and signed meanwhile a contract with "l'opérateur historique". They have human staff available in an office 20 minutes march away, and spare equipment on stock if needed. L'administration a du bon de temps en temps ...

Furthermore, their pricing is competitive now - this was not the case two and a half years ago when I installed high speed Internet (Triple Play - technically it works really fine, since we live only 1650 m away from the digital exchange). But may be every 8 to 10 months, quality went down, due to overload of the exchange and delay in upgrading it within a reasonable amount of time.

PS : V called you Mr. Qwerty in one of his posts. But I am afraid :)) you are a lady...

[Terry]

John;

My mistake. Frosbert said it. But you can read it too.

[qwerty]

Daniel, I recommend that "Le Monde" link to follow over time the evolution of the reforms. I'm going to do that, anyway. It's a status report and has tags for each category: réforme en cours, à venir, abandonnée...with interactivity, back-up articles, etc. They must have read something I posted once on Charles's blog :)

I have the opérateur historique and haven't had too many problems except their hotline is usually lousy; on the other hand I have Noos for cable TV and they keep upgrading it to no avail.

[Ros]

QUERTY: "on the other hand I have Noos for cable TV and they keep upgrading it to no avail" - I've had Noos TV cable since 1997 - I don't see what you mean "upgrading"?
I only have the very minimum (no cinema) & they leave me alone...

[Ros]

After last night's Sarko performance, this Blog is going to become popular again (unless Charles is going to do another one)

[dot king]

"an office 20 minutes march away, "
(Daniel Strohl)

Oh, that is LOVELY - don't forget your gas-mask and mess-tin!

[qwerty]

Well, Ros, they did some "travaux" in my area and since then (1) the screen is shocking pink instead of the pretty blue it used to be, (2) it takes even longer for Noos to connect (approx. 30 seconds), and (3) there are occasional weird disturbances, such as CNN reporters all sounding like Dark Vador or the image fracturing up so you think you're watching a horror movie in which the characters are all turning into monsters. Actually these disturbances existed previously but they haven't stopped.

[Daniel Strohl]

Dot,

Of course, I intented to say "a 20 minutes walk" - LOL. I am normally a peaceful man - no military utensils required. Furthermore, j'ai fait mon service militaire dans la marine - on y fait très peu de marche (sauf chez les fusiliers marins - un de mes amis de la marine marchande a fait son service militaire en Algérie; il a commandé là-bas un peloton de fusiliers-marins A CHEVAL! C'était d'ailleurs le seul peloton de ce type dans la marine ...)

Qwerty,

I will follow your link as soon as my new Internet connection is running smoothly. This should happen next monday or thursday.

[azloon]

in defense of Terry, who doesn't need it and seldom deserves it, it must be said the socialist (or more socialistic) arguments rest on a premise that is clearly false. or at least some of the comments here do (think THINKNOW).

the amount/supply of money in the world is not inelastic. greedy new york/london/pairs investment bankers who take home marginally deserved buckets full of money are not thereby depriving others of their 'fair share." they is enough money in the world for all those who care to devote their lives to accumulating it. and this fact creates efficiencies which could never be achieved by more socialistic approaches to the allocation of capital.

it's helpful to remember when envy/anger creeps into your mind upon reading about obscene amounts of wealth being accumulated by less-than-admirable people: 'there is suffering in the midst of plenty."