Sarkozy talks presidential while Royal sees doom

A visitor to France today would hardly know that the country is one day from choosing a new president [today's scene-setter here]. France's mania for regulating everything means that the media are not allowed to report anything of substance since yesterday on the campaign and no opinion polls may be mentioned. The people are supposed to have a "day of reflection" before voting. 

Of course the internet escapes most of the ban, which is how most people know that Ségolène Royal, the Socialist, is crashing in the latest opinion polls, falling 10 points behind Nicolas Sarkozy.

It will take an electoral tsunami for her to win now. She lost it yesterday, predicting virtual Armageddon if the supposedly dangerous conservative reformer reaches the Elysée Palace. I have been receiving spam-type e-mails -- clearly orchestrated by the Royal campaign -- from "ordinary citizens" begging people to wake up to the dire fate that awaits France if Sarko is elected. This includes a collapse of public services and mass poverty, they say.

There are also lurid rumours about the riots that are supposed to break out in the big city banlieue, the immigrant housing estates, the moment that Sarko's victory is proclaimed. Word of these has reached London so The Times will have a man on riot duty in the troubled northern outskirts of Paris tomorrow night. I do not believe there will be any violence. There will be demonstrations -- for and against -- probably around the Place de la Concorde, where Sarkozy plans to celebrate his victory with Johnny Hallyday, the pop singer, among others.

Sarkozy has taken the high ground and already sounds presidential in an interview with le Parisien today. Absurdly, Royal's team intervened to have the newspaper banned from publishing Sarko's words -- uttered yesterday -- because of the supposed politics-free day of reflection. That has not stopped le Parisien from putting the interview on its site. On Ségo's scare campaign, Sarko says there has been nothing like it since the 1950s. "Telling people that if they vote for a candidate there will be violence is a way of denying people their democratic rights," he said. "I don't understand why someone of Ms Royal's quality lets herself get carried away with such verbal violence." Sarko said he did not imagine that there would be any violent demonstrations against his election.

He plans to take a few days "retreat" after the election to prepare himself mentally for succeeding Jacques Chirac on May 17 -- if he is elected of course.

Timing note: The election result will appear on The Times online when it emerges around 1630 gmt tomorrow. That's about 18h30 (6.30 pm) French time. France is not officially supposed to know the result until 8pm although it will appear on foreign media well ahead of that. The prosecutors have promised to pursue any blogger who mentions it before 8pm local.   

Comments

[The 3rd column]

Mr Bremner,

Mr Sarkozy CAN take the moral high ground. One doesn't have to pro-Sarkozy to see how low Ms Royal has stooped.

What she and her socialist acolytes are doing are no more no less, inciting civil unrest, inciting hatred, fear, creating an atmosphere of social insecurity.

Although I've been pro-Sarkozy since 2003, I've learned to admire and respect Ms Royal for her intellect and panache but her recent pronouncements are making me think twice.

Ms Royal must engage brain - not let her emotions take over. She must show equanimity at all times - more so in the face of a looming defeat (besides, the election is not over), If she can do that, she will be seen as a true statesman(woman).

[Robert Marchenoir]

Great headline in the paper, Charles. I think that pretty sums up the situation.

For those who have not followed the link:

"France set to pick man it fears over the woman it likes but doesn’t trust"

"A new political era will start on Sunday as Sarkozy heads for the Elysée Palace"

By the way, since this is an English blog and an English paper but you are working from Paris, are you allowed to mention results here before 8 p.m.? Will you be doing it?

Or will the results be only a click away, on The Times website?

[The 3rd column]

Mr Bremner,

I do hope you are right in your assessment, that there will be no post election-related violence.

It would have been so much more constructive for Ms Royal had she opted for a different tactic on the eve of the election, that of quelling what she believed would be a "brewing storm" if Sarkozy should be elected. But it's too late - Ms Royal caved in to the baser instinct ot a "loser". I do believe that by sowing fear to the last, she merely antagonized voters who would have otherwise been more sympathetic to her person.

But all is not lost for her even if her defeat is confirmed tomorrow. A person of her intellectual caliber must know that her political image and stature can only grow if she can show no resentment at all after the polls close tomorrow - instead, she should immediately reach out to her supporters, voters, particularly to the sector of the population that is rabidly anti-Sarkozy, to soothe general public sentiment, all in the spirit of national unity and common good.

The option, or tactic if you wish, of "appeasing for the common good" is a political capital she cannot afford to dilapidate, not if she wants to scale the heights of French politics, perhaps not tomorrow but in the days, months and (why not?), in the 5 years to come.

[Frank Schnittger]

When the going gets tough people tend to show themselves in their true colours. Royal has been showing herself to be the relatively minor political figure she was until very recently.

Last November or thereabouts I said that the election was hers to lose. She has proceeded to do precisely that.

France was yearning for a change and she represented a breath of fresh air from the usually stodgy socialist establishment. France was ready to embrace her: a combination of style and new ideas, a determination to bridge the gap between a remote Parisian Elite and the people as a whole.

However, she set up a truly amateurish campaign organisation, showed a poor grasp of policy and even basic facts, committed numerous faux pas, and vacillated all over the political map.

First she seemed to be courting a "new socialist" centrist type of voter. Then when Sarkozy took the lead she turned sharply left to shore up her Socialist base. Then she reverted to courting the Bayrou centrist vote. Now she is engaged in an infantile old style demonising of her political adversary of a kind that would make a Stalinist blush.

There is a thin line between predicting social unrest, and inciting it. The French public are, rightly, running from her in droves. The last thing you need is a President who appears to be acting in concert with subversive forces in society.

All of this has little to do with whether a broadly centre left social democrat or centre right liberal democrat political program is the right one for France. There is a prior issue of competence. She simply doesn’t have the political skills or experience to run a major country.

None of this speaks to Sarkozy necessarily being an outstanding leader. He is just a lot better than the alternative. Pity he doesn’t look good in a Bikini, he would have won by a mile!

[Ros]

No need to wait for The Times Online - just tune in to BBC World TV.

[Sam Young]

At last the whole thing is drawing to an end. About 6 months ago, I bet a few thousand euro on Sarkozy winning. Apart from some major upset (such as the bombs in Madrid, for example) the only person on the socialist side that looked dangerous was Dominque Strauss Kahn. I still believe that, had he been nominated, and subject to shifting a bit to the center, he could have won against Sarkozy. Fortunately, the French socialists are very predictable in their stupidity, and so i put on the bet anyway. Then, as soon as i saw that "Madame" was nominated, i put on ever more money. Once again, i felt safe doing so because the socialists are so stupid.
So, here we have an example of how one can turn something negative (the socialists) into something positive (easy money).

Next up, we have the general elections. I don't know if the bookmakers are going to be taking bets on the French general elections, but this is what i predict: during June, there will be many strikes since the trade unions in France are hard-core left-wing. Transport, Post Office, Schools, etc. Of course, Sarko won't give in. These strikes will annoy the ordinary voters so much that they will vote massively in favor of a right-wing government.
Once again, one has to thank the high degree of reliable stupidity of the lefties here in France.
A strong right-wing victory will lead to the disappearance of the nefarious well-known lefties (the "elephants") and to the emergence of young socialists who are more in touch with their times.
All of which will be grist to the mill of our astute Charles, and indeed good fun to watch.
Personally, as i watch NS ride to victory, i have a feeling of deliverance.
NB: we need to remain watchful as many of the old-school socialists will recycle themselves to the global warming cause.

[Jim Peterson]

Sam,

I agree. I was just in Paris and Lyon on a business trip.

If you are really anti-left and like to throw money around, why not give money to the Online Dating Rights crowd who are fighting an insane new feminist law in the USA that makes it illegal for websites to introduce Americans to foreigners without the Americans being background checked and sex offender checked for the foreigner's safety.

[daveinboca]

The PS is already planning to declare a "symbolic victory" if Royal gets more than 45% of the vote! Looks like AGW will be the new crusade as socialist political nostrums are rejected for the third time in a row.

[Jerseydevil]

There is a certain inflexibility to Sego that has hurt her chances. Interestingly, she needs to support of men and moderates to win and the stats will show that she doesn't have them. She might also try pants instead of a skirt.

[Dianne Maire]

Mr. Bremner, I predict there will indeed be problems with a Sarkozy win and not only from the disenfranchised and I predict less than a year from now the French people will be saying, “What have we done?”

Francois Bayrou said it succinctly.

“Because of his closeness with the business milieu and media powers, because of his taste for intimidation and menace, he will concentrate power as it has never been concentrated.“

Mr. Sarkozy brings a chill to these old bones. I fear for the future days of France.

[Count Pierre de Ravel d'Esclapon]

As a Frenchman who has lived in the United States for close to four decades,I witness,and take part in, the presidential campaigns that mobilise my country.Now that the campaign draws to a close-I did vote early this morning in New York-I cannot help but be left with a certain sadness about the process.
As we witness a generation change in France and a significant shift in values in Europe,I had hoped,for the sake of the democratic process,to see a true debate between the traditional Left and Right in France about the direction that France needs to find for herself .Instead,I witnessed a candidate,propelled to that position by a careful nurturing of the media and a keen eye for political rather than historic opportunity,who wasted a chance to put before my compatriots the answers to the questions every serious politician must be confronting,and who punted by responding to all questions :"Elect me then we'll have a dialogue among all stakeholders ( partenaires sociaux) and we will act according to the consensus we will find."
A sad moment for true democracy it is indeed when a candidate refuses to put forward reasoned answers (with which on may disagree but whose existence is essential to a true democratic process)to the burning questions that must be answered if France is to lift herself out of the morass she has so suffered from in the last few decades.
On the other side,Nicholas Sorkozy,was not afraid of tackling issues that the Left as well as the Right had studiously avoided in the last few decades,spoke plainly,and forcefully,to the nation much as a good barrister addressing a jury does and not only posed the right questions but was crystal clear on the answers to those questions.Whether one likes his answers or not is not the point.Rather ,the point is that he gave clear answers.That Melle Royal chose not to do the same throughout her campaign simply means that the democratic process and France was the poorer thereby.Hence my sadness .

[Lord Nithorynque]

Sam,

bravo for making easy money out of how stupid the french Socialists can be. The Socialist Party members made a mistake in choosing Ms. Royal as presidential candidate (they simply saw Mr. Strauss-Kahn as less charismatic, and that, I agree, was stupid). Something bothers me, though. Had Ms. Royal been just a little bit more stupid than you think she is, Mr. Bayrou would have qualified for second run instead of her, and he would probably have won when opposed to Mr. Sarkozy. There was a moment, a few weeks ago, when Mr. Bayrou and Ms. Royal were very close according to the opinion polls, but you didn't panic then. On the other hand, the Socialist leaders were just stupid enough, no more, no less, than what you predicted : the 'elephants' tried to remain as silent as possible, they didn't help Ms. Royal but didn't trumpet either. Undoubtedly, some of the 'elephants' would have benefitted from Mr. Bayrou's victory, but they didn't dare to make a move against Ms. Royal, in the name of 'party discipline'. As for some of the second fiddles (Mr. Besson and former cabinet ministers Mr. Tapie and Mr. Allègre), they chose to support Mr. Sarkozy, not Mr. Bayrou. Once again, well done, that was some guesstimate.

N.B. : the global warming cause is a very important issue which doesn't need for sarcastic comments.

[elizabeth]

To Sam young
you say: Apart from some major upset (such as the bombs in Madrid, for example) the only person on the socialist side that looked dangerous was Dominque Strauss Kahn.
I would like to know what you think of the Madrid Bombings on March 11, 2004. A corrupt Socialist goverment came to power after the bombings, a goverment that is freeing ETA killers. It is also letting the ETA political party come into each townhall in the Basque Country on May 27th, the Spainsh municipal elections.

I am following the French elections closely because Sarko is our only hope that France will start catching ETA terrorists and puting them in jail without contemplations.

[LITTLE BIG HORN]

"What she and her socialist acolytes are doing are no more no less, inciting civil unrest, inciting hatred, fear, creating an atmosphere of social insecurity."

The socialists inciting social insecurity. Waaooo! You have guts to write such things, The 3rd Column. What a relevant analysis! Or is it a specimen of British humour? A nonsense festival?

You're a bit late in the events.

It's been already and irrevocably done on 25 October 2005, when two teenagers died in an electrical power substation to hide themselves. They were running away from the police. Why?

Because your idol N. Sarkozy said 2 words in front of a reinforcement of TV cameras and journalists (where were you Mr Bremner?) to create a climate of security, tolerance, confidence, to laud love, and unify the Nation: "scum" and "karcher". What a great stateman!

By the way, the 2 kids were from poor family, colored, nice people, and young. No criminal record. (The police -of Sarkozy- saw the kids go into the substation and didn't act to save them).

Zyed Benna (17) and Bouna Traoré (15).

2 words, 2 deads. A collateral damage for Mini-Bush, in its mini-war for power against the poor.

The Conservatives, as honourable firemen, have to light fires to get the Job nowadays. And to keep it. Let's see how high will rise the flames from "la France d'en bas".

[Michel R, Paris]

Mr Bremner,

I am the one who sent you the e-mail "SOS d'un Ségoliste en détresse". I'm sorry to disappoint your conspiracy theory, but I do am an ordinary citizen, and I don't even belong to the Parti Socialiste. Though sending this e-mail to you was a mistake (you were in my contacts list), I was genuine in my message and I've not been manipulated by anyone.

And I absolutly did not predict "mass poverty" in case of a Sarkozy victory, but hard times for my generation (people in their 20s). You are not the one who will struggle to rent a flat in Paris with Sarkozy's "contrat unique", and who will have to accept the second job offered by the employment agency, even if it has nothing to do with my aspirations.

Sarkozy has a majority only with people over their 60s : they are not the ones who will pay the price of a deregulated economy.

I am not the typical leftist activist, I do am economically literate and understand France needs less State and more growth. But I don't want someone who has no respect for the press freedom, and you can't deny this.

By the way, Mr Bremner, I think you've got my phone number, if you want to make sure I'm not from the Royal campaign, just give me a call...

[Mercurion]

Giving results before 20 pm would be a very respectless action from the Times.

[D.Strohl]

Dear Mr. Michel R,

I really do not understand all the fuss about the "press freedom" - left leaning people or ordinary people like myself are free to read Libération, Nouvel Observateur, Marianne, Le Monde ("daily of the thinking establishment" in Charles' may be somewhat humoristic formulation), l'Huma etc. and to watch Antenne 2, FR 3, Canal + etc.

If Sarkozy wins the present election, and the parliamentary elections in June, it will not be thanks to the press supposed to be "aux ordres", but more to the "reliable stupidity of the lefties here in France" (see above). This latter statement is "un peu fort de café" and does not apply to you, since obviously you are a young, honest and idealistic person.

I am myself "un vieux crabe" (72) - I do remember that I too had to battle hard to get and to pay for a (very) small apartment in Paris when I had your age. At that time, it was relatively easy to get a job, but most of the available jobs were poorly rewarded (unless you managed to get out of Polytechnique or HEC within the "botte" - this was not the case for me ...).

[janes]

I benefit from my last moments of freedom, it is not badly... Mister Thatcher, why not? Finally it is perhaps me who is not normal. I am not member of the party, fortunately "Mr" Thatcher will leave us the fog in which we are. And to make us forget that he was in the previous government,it is what is called here in France: "quiet rupture", yes we are happy, I love my president, we are french and proud to be lucid! We are proud to make you benefit from our lessons of democracy ! For the last time I wrote here: Thanks mister Bremner, I will continue to read you and good luck! Au Revoir.

[The 3rd column]

Little Horn,

Let's get back on track, shall we?

"What she and her socialist acolytes are doing are no more no less, inciting civil unrest, inciting hatred, fear, creating an atmosphere of social insecurity."

That was in reference to Ms Royal's declaration on RTL last Friday, "la candidature de Nicolas Sarkozy est dangereuse", blah blah, and to cap it all, when she predicted civil unrest, social violence if Sarkozy is elected, and this on the eve of election?

Grossly irresponsible wouldn't you say?

I wonder if Ms Royal will have the decency NOT TO REJOICE when post-election violence does occur - OK, I understand extreme left faction of Royal's supporters have already burned down cars in Paris today but this is no reason for Ms Royal to rejoice.

And no, Little horn, Mr Sarkozy is not my idol - I stopped having 'idols' at age 12.

[JAP]

Michel R.,
You make me cry. Twice. In the first place, for many friends and acquaintaces, all with their heart well set lefthand albeit having various political tastes, who vote for Sarkozy and have been humiliated by your stigmatisation of them as "oldies" - over 60. They're actually between 18 and 99, most of them in their 40's. Your youth entitles you perhaps to make mistakes but you might want to check your facts and figures before casting people into wrong categories.

My second set of tears is for you. A knowledgeble person such as your self-description who genuinely believes the nonsense such as "no free press" will readily believe anything provided, of course, it comes from the right (er... left) source. That's one mechanism by which free thinking gets bounded.

[terry]

It seems to me that Sego is not only warning that there will be violence if Sarko is elected, but encouraging it.

[Michel R, Paris]

Dear Mr. Strohl,

Thank you for your answer. I'm sorry, but by press freedom, I didn't mean the freedom of choosing your news source. Thank God, we're still free to read and watch whatever we want.

But it's the news supply which cannot be guaranteed as free with a President Sarkozy. Did you hear about Paris-Match's editor, Alain Genestar, who was fired only because he uncovered Cécilia's affair with this New-York guy? This is thanks to Sarkozy's acquaintance with Arnaud Lagardère, Paris Match's owner. This kind of underhand dealings is simply unacceptable. Would Mr Bremner accept that his boss got fired because Tony Blair wanted so? This might sound idealistic indeed, but it's a question of principles.

I can see that you understand how hard it is for young people, though I'm not sure you realize how bad it would be for my generation. Being 20 in 1955 was not the same than being 20 in 2007. You had the chance to live at a time when France's economy was buoyant, and good will was enough to climb up the social ladder. Today, good will is not enough. I am myself a graduate from a "grande école" and I still look at the future with fear and anxiety. I am the son of a modest farmer, and if I have been able to study, it is thanks to our so critized Welfare State, who allowed me not pay unaffordable tuition fees and gave me a maintenance grant, something my parents couldn't do.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I fear that in Sarkozy's France, this solidarity will be over, and with it, a certain idea of France...

[Peter Newman-Legros]

Whatever the result - and as I type this it is not far off - I cannot help but feel that Mr Bremner has not tried very hard to remain neutral throughout this campaign and certainly over his most recent blogs. This is at best disappointing and at worst something of a betrayal in that I really enjoyed his earlier pieces about the election which were informativ,amusing and thought provoking. Thankfully - just like me - he cannot vote for his obvious favourite.

[Michel R, Paris]

Jap,

Please spare me the sarcasm. I am no leftist and I'll give you figures I didn't find in Libération to check out:

According to Ifop's April 27th poll, here is how people vote according to their age :
Sarkozy Royal
18-24 y/o 47 53
25-34 y/o 46 54
35-49 y/o 45 55
50-64 y/o 49 51
over 65 75 25

You can see from this poll the over-representation of the Sarko vote for people over 65. They are the ones who decided for this election, protected with their confortable pensions.

Please don't cry for me. I'm screwed, the grey vote won, let's just hope my generation will not, one day, refuse to pay your pension anymore...

[Lord Nithorynque]

I agree with Michel R.
When I first read that same poll results, I couldn't believe my eyes. There seems to be a clear fracture line between generations within the French people...

[trend]

who said that the people were always right? I wish you never be jobless...