Sarko and suffering France

With the dust settling from Sunday's first round, it is clear that two main factors will decide whether Ségolène Royal can come from behind and win the presidency of France on May 6.

The Socialist will triumph if enough wavering voters judge Nicolas Sarkozy, the rightwing radical, to be too dangerous to elect. She also needs to achieve un sursaut in her own campaign.

Sursaut is a useful word meaning a sudden jump or burst. Royal has to inject new energy and inspiration into a campaign that is still worrying her followers, even her biggest loyalists. She was positively wooden in her 'victory' appearance last night, droning on for too long and reading her text as if she was addressing a town council.

The duel is Sarkozy's to lose. The arithmetic gives him the upper hand and support in his own camp is solid. The left has never been so weak, with 36 percent of the total vote on Sunday, of which 26 percent went to Royal. Sarkozy's 31 percent of the vote was huge in comparison with rightwing candidates in recent decades. The Socialists were nevertheless thrilled because their candidate scored about the same as Francois Mitterrand in 1981 when he went on to win power from Président Valery Giscard d'Estaing.

The exit polls on Sunday put Sarkozy well ahead of Royal in a duel. He would win 52 percent, according to BVA, 53.5 percent said CSA and 54 percent according to the Ipsos firm.   

The pollsters disagree over the key question: which way the voters of François Bayrou, the centrist with 18 percent, will swing in the run-off. Everything will hinge on the Sarko fear factor and Royal's credibility. Bayrou will give some guidance to his seven million supporters on Wednesday but he is unlikely to back either Ségo or Sarko. The two big camps are publicly ruling out any pacts but they are privately wooing Bayrou hard.

The favours of Jean-Marie Le Pen's voters will not necessarily switch to Sarkozy. The thinking is that Le Pen's meagre 10.5 percent of the vote represented a National Front hard core who dislike Sarkozy and may largely abstain or even vote for Royal in the final round.

While the final vote will be largely a referendum on Sarkozy, Royal must do more than play up his worrying side. As Alain Juppé, the former Gaullist Prime Minister, said this morning that "demonising Sarkozy has its limits. The voters are wise to the game."

Sarkozy is off to Dijon today to start selling his revamped image as Mr Tough-but-caring. His new slogan, "a new dream for France" is borrowed from his latest hero, Martin Luther King. The radio comedians were imitating Sarko this morning saying in English: "Ah 'ave a drream". Sarkozy is now proclaiming himself the saviour of "La France qui souffre" -- the struggling classes. His target are young and working class voters who are turned off by the caricature view of Sarko as a heartless opportunist beholden to big business.       

Royal has gone south to Valence today to preach her message of healing in the face of the "brutal" and "divisive" France of Sarkozy. La France qui souffre is her territory, not Sarko's she says.

Meanwhile, the media and politicians have been busy congratulating the French for the clear result and the extraordinary 84 percent voter turn-out that offered a lesson in democracy. All those condescending (Anglo-Saxon) foreigners who bemoaned France's rejection of its political classes could now shut up, said commentators. 

"The French voters have taken to this presidential election with a gusto verging on voraciousness that has never been seen since the first election of this type in 1965," said Gérard Carreyrou, a veteran television commentator who is now with France Soir. "It's an excellent thing to show the good health of representative democracy."

Comments

[Ros]

No critics from me - your article was just perfect and shows how well you understand the real meaning of the results - unfortunately it's just a question of maths, at which personally - I'm not up to much

[rocket]

One very respectable thing you have to give credit to the French for this time around is their turnout. You cannot say that they were blasé about this election.

Let not this good example of democratic participation turn into lesson giving.

[D.Strohl]

Charles was quite busy in the past days. He was and is firing (good) articles as fast as the Prussians - derived from an Alsatian expression : it is not possible to fire faster then the Prussians.

[Brian Robson]

Charles is right to comment how weak the left have become in France.

What those Socialists comparing Royale's result to Mitterand's in 1981 are failing to recognise is the collapse of the French Communist Party as a political force over the last 25 years.

In 1981, Georges Marchais, their flagbearer, scored 15.35% in the first round and then backed Mitterand in the run off. Another 5% or so went to left-wing splinter parties, making a total for the left of over 45% on the first round.

[Terry]

As a condescending Anglo-Saxon foreigner, I have to agree with Rocket. The turnout was very impressive. Significantly, more participation than we see here in America. Then again, there never really seems to be much concrete difference between the candidates here. Few of them stick to their promises anyway because power is so diffuse. So people tend to vote for who they like. Also, things have been relatively good in the U.S. for a long time so voters may not be motivated.

By contrast, I think the French voters must see something personally at stake in this election to turn out in such numbers. From my A/S condescending view, there must be tremondous dissatisfaction in France with the way things are going. The question is in which direction France is going to choose to resolve their crisis-through the private sector or the public sector.

Since I am not French, I have no idea. But I can take a good guess...

P.S. Charles, someone has replaced your picture with Sarko's picture on the website. Have you been sacked?

[rocket]

Terry,

This time around the French voted with their heads. Last time in 2002 they were the laughing stock because the only thing that people remember is Lepen making it into the runoff. Most people don't have time to research. They read the headlines and make up their minds. Thus all the world remembers is that an extreme right candidate got into a runoff in a country that prides itself on "Liberté, Fraternité, Egalité"

Time magazine even front cover titled "France's shame" back in 2002 They (the French) would not be stupid enough to repeat the same mistakes as 5 years ago and they knew the stakes perfectly well. So less protest votes this time around. French presidential elections are a bit like life in France. The first round is for complaining and the second round is for getting serious.

I think that these small candidates will eventually die out and there will be only about 5-8 first round candidates. I mean my God! A candidate representing the hunters. Communist revolutionaries!

As per change no matter who wins. Don't count on it much. I will expand on this "manana" when I am not so tired.

[Doctor Louis A. F. v. Wetzler]

I must be thankful to our Lord that I am not a French citizen I would not vote for any of the two candidates. Ségolène, has lots of experience as minister in the past, she has class, allure, a nice and charming woman, but she isn’t a political animal, so she is not prepare to be the next President of France, a country with so many contradictions, which is the cradle of our culture for at least the last four centuries, but pathetically is immerse in chaos now. Sárközy is indeed a political animal, a person with the utmost ambition for power, but finally a demagogue, who is extremely dangerous, he had taken too much from Jean Marie Le Pen and the French Fascists, he is too far to the right now, a French George Bush. He doesn’t represent the historic French right, which was Monarchical, Catholic and profoundly involved in the History of France her traditions and her Grandeur, like Charles de Gaulle was during the XX Century (Le Général a dit “Toute ma vie, je me suis fait une certaine idée de la France. ... La France ne peut être la France sans la grandeur”). Quite a pity that Dominique de Villepin isn’t in the ballots, he is a true representative of the old style conservative for France.

[John Hornsby]

If someone who promulgates law and order rather than chaos and anarchy is to be classed as a cousin to Fascists that doesn't say much for the moral principles of some of Sarkozy's opponents. Such accusations are even less acceptable when one considers how much the Hungarian nation suffered from totalitarian regimes in the 20th Century.

[Théo]

I am changing subject but if anybody having problem electing Ségo or Sarko Paris Link have a different election: Eurovirtual Song Contest. 31 bands from 31 countries. 12 candidates was enough. 31? It is not laughing thing:

http://www.paris-link-home.com/

Eurovirtual

[Richard Black, Paris]

In Fascist tradition, there is of course a close link between law and order and chaos and anarchy. One begets the other. It suits Sarkozy's ambitions perfectly when there are examples of anti social behaviour (recent trouble at the Gare du Nord). An ideal opportunity to pass some more restrictive legislation to better protect the innocent good Frenchman. An ideal example for some more police brutality and ridiculous "random" identity checks. And so the circle goes on...and it's all the fault of a small and convenient minority (youths and foreigners and even more dangerous foreign youths).

Sarkozy's record as Interior Minister is very poor but typically right wing; crime against property down, crime against persons up. Continuing policies that continue to exacerbate divisions in society will ensure this trend continues...until the implementation of a final solution to the problem of these anti social elements.

[christopher muir]

Richard Black makes some very good points. Right wing politicians (and sometimes from the Left) find it an enticement to manipulate threats and "dangers" to their electoral advantage. We know that a fuse has been lit that snakes around the world. The banlieues, I suspect, won't take kindly to a Sarko win. Perhaps France should enjoy the next couple of weeks of spring weather to its fullest.

[John Hornsby]

What suggestions would messrs. Black and Muir make to make life safer in the Paris suburbs and along the Côte d'Azur? It is a fact that some 80% of crimes against person and property are committed by young men of immigrant families.It is also a distortion of facts to claim that Sarkozy's record as Minister of the Interior was a poor one.

[Ros]

If Dr Wetzler thinks that Sarkozy is "a demagogue, who is extremely dangerous," (& I quite agree) then if he were French he'd obviously vote for Segolene who won't be much good but is certainly not dangerous!