Bayrou packs stadium. Where is Mrs Sarko ?

François Bayrou pulled off his bet that he could fill the Bercy stadium last night. About 17,000 fans turned up to cheer their hero in the venue that is usually home to big sports events and rock concerts. "No other candidate has dared do this," the man from the "extreme centre" told the adoring crowd. It's true, the other candidates have avoided the risk of empty seats and stayed away from the biggest Paris stadiums.

Bayrou gives the impression of floating on a cloud despite the consensus in the political world that he is done for. The polls today are contradictory, with Ipsos and BVA showing Bayrou sliding further behind Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal while Sofrès shows the centrist catching up on them. Jean-Marie Le Pen of the far right still lurks within striking range of the final, given the one third of voters who remain undecided. 

Whatever they are saying in public, Royal's team remain very worried about the possibility of a Bayrou surprise in Sunday's elimination round.

She was sounding tense and tetchy in a morning interview on RTL this morning, despite her usual claims to serenity.  Sarkozy is also gunning for Bayrou. He hauled out his latest weapon last night: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the 1970s president who founded the candidate's Union for French Democracy. Giscard says that only Sarko has the qualifications to run the country. In Bercy, Bayrou stirred up the crowd by dumping hard on his octogenarian former boss, saying Sarko had gathered around him "all the dignitaries of past decades, all determined to defend their monopoly and their privileges." This is the born-again Bayrou, the tractor-driving farmer revolutionary, talking, not the former Education Minister who served with Chirac's neo-Gaullists in a 1990s government. Having the unpopular ex-president against him is probably a help rather than a hindrance for Bayrou.      

Here's a glimpse of Bayrou in Lille, where I went on Tuesday night and reported in today's paper.

We were talking to Jean-Marie Le Pen today. At 78, the old man is as punchy and provocative as ever as he winds up his fifth presidential campaign promising an "immense surprise" on Sunday. This, he predicts, will not only be his own arrival in the run off, but also the elimination of Sarkozy. I don't think so.

Le Pen has also breached a taboo by relaying rumours on Sarkozy's private life. Paris and the internet have been full of tales this week that Cécilia Sarkozy has again walked out on her husband, this time for a well-known writer. Followers of the Sark-opera may remember that Mrs Sarkozy left her husband for an advertising executive a couple of years ago and then returned to the fold last year. She has not been seen much around the campaign but the couple have posed together for glossy magazines. Le Pen decided to make the rumours public in a TV interview last night, saying: " I am quite surprised that there has been no curiosity on the part of the press about Madame Sarkozy, who could become France's First Lady. I notice that reverential fear gets the better of people who normally do not hesitate to spread rumours."

Well, now I've helped spread them. More on Le Pen later.     

Comments

[Alex]

Don't feel bad. Le Parisien reported the Le Pen quote today, too.

What's interesting is that Sarkozy became especially taciturn when she last left him. If I'm not mistaken, "racaille" and 'karcher" all came out while Cecilia was apartment hunting in NY.

If the Cecilia rumour is true, then Sarko's somewhat surprising inability to hold the "I've changed" line since January makes a lot more sense.

[christopher muir]

It wouldn't be a bad idea if Mrs Sarko made an appearance before Sunday in a friendly domestic pose with Mr Sarko. If the rumour is true, you have to wonder how one man can deal with so many problems at once. Having followed this race for months (thanks, Charles), I still don't have a clue about who the winner will be. I have a sneaking suspicion that whoever succeeds, France itself will not become tranquille, on the contrary - it could become increasingly divided. Hopefully, there's not a road being followed that might lead the country back to May 1968.

[Frank Schnittger]

The First Lady is such an anachronistic title. Why not have a first Mistress, Second Mistress etc...

It could provide the tabloids with no end of opportunies for in "depth profiles" of La Belle du Jour.

The Times can tut tut disapprovingly that it would never happen in England etc...

US coservatives could bewail the breakdown of the family and the end of Civilisation as we know it.

Moslems could welcome the move towards multiculturalism/polygamy.

Everybody wins!

[Pierre Zwingli]

Mr Sarkozy has only himself to blame for Mr Lepen breaking the taboo (it is well known why the Socialists don't speak about it : Marie-Ségolène Royal is not on best terms with Mr. Hollande, the father of her children).

Mr. Sarkozy said, last week, that he envisioned that his wife Cecilia would "play a role" as First Lady. It's then normal that le Pen asked journalists (first on the *morning* show on RMC, then repeated later in the day) to be a bit more inquisitive as to who was this prospective First Lady.

And of course, no one was inquisitive, they only reported what Mr. Le Pen said and a lame answer from Mr. Sarkozy that he wanted to protect his wife from the spotlight.

Hmm. Those that followed his public reconciliation trip with Cecilia in French Guyana on the Maroni river, all at the taxpayer's expensesm after a similar promise from Mr. Sarkozy "never again in the spotlight", will shake their heads and wonder if le Pen is not right to denounce the inbred political and media world in Paris (Mr. Sarkozy's mistress works at the Figaro a staunch pro-Sarkozy paper who sacked one of its editor (Macé-Scaron) because... well... he wouldn't do favours to Sarkozy, Mr. Macé-Scaron's word were quite crude).

[Ros]

Yes, Mr Bremner, but you are not up to date - it's what Le Pen said at Nice LAST night on TF1 that matters not whether Mrs (or ex-Mrs) Sarkozy is around or not .I really don't understand why the posting above is unhappy "And of course, no one was inquisitive" - why should we care? How will that change sunday's very very important results?

[The 3rd Column]

Where is Mrs Le Pen?

Didn't the 1st Mrs Le Pen (by the way, is there a second Mrs Le Pen already?) pose nude for French Playboy magazine once?

My take: It is very likely that the first round of elections on Sunday, 22nd April will see a face off between Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal for the final election round on 6th May.

I believe that after Sunday's first round, most 'protest votes' cast in favor of the 'lil'candidates as well as votes by hardline left-wingers will find their way into Royal's camp but what isn't clear is what voters will do - those who cast their ballots for either Bayrou, Le Pen, neo-conservative Philippe de Villiers (1.5%) or for Green party's (therefore traditionally either "left-wing" or liberal) Dominique Voynet (1%) - will they finally transfer their votes to Sarkozy in the final round?

At the end of the day, the undecided, will make the difference but I am convinced that we may just see a Sarkozy-Royal match to the finish with Sarkozy ultimately winning the presidency but only by a very, very slim margin.

[john gregory Flinn]

"This, he predicts, will not only be his own arrival in the run off, but also the elimination of Sarkozy. I don't think so."

Youre tempting fate again Mr Bremner!
With Tony Blair coming out in favour of an EU mini-constitution WITHOUT a referendum in the UK, it's becoming obvious that a Sarkosy/Merkel/Blair triumvirate is out to thwart the French (and Dutch) "Non".
That might not help M.Sarkosy.

[Samantha]

It is probably not a bad thing if France's incoming president(e) doesn't have a partner or spouse to distract their attention from dealing with the country's enormous problems that previous leaders have refused to tackle...

[Frank Schnittger]

The First Lady is such an anachronistic title. Why not have a first Mistress, Second Mistress etc...

It could provide the tabloids with no end of opportunies for in "depth profiles" of La Belle du Jour.

The Times can tut tut disapprovingly that it would never happen in England etc...

US coservatives could bewail the breakdown of the family and the end of Civilisation as we know it.

Moslems could welcome the move towards multiculturalism/polygamy.

Everybody wins!

[Farid Charidine]

since when have musilms promoted polygamy Frank?

[pascalngt]

I find very funny the idea of mrs Sarkozy flying away and coming back each time there is an nice dandy around.If she goes on after her husband's election may be there will be nice situations like in the marvellous Barbara's song " Si la photo est bonne".Do you know it?
About the first mrs Le Pen, when she left her husband he said she would not have a penny and could try to go out charring to earn some money. So she did posing naked in a man's magazine with a cute little feather-duster. Not so bad for a more than 50 years old woman. The 2nd mrs Le Pen is much more insipid...

[John Mullen]

The incoming government in June will change millions of people's lives, quite likely for the worse, and candidates are arguing about each other's domestic arrangements. Makes you sick.