Ségo lurches left

Ségolène Royal has performed a spectacular lurch to the old-fashioned left in an attempt to catch up with Nicolas Sarkozy, the centre-right candidate whose robust campaign for the French presidency has eclipsed her for weeks.

After months of wooing the middle ground with her soft, inclusive vision, the Socialist party candidate is now depicting herself as a victim of dark rightwing forces and champion of the workers against capitalists who will stop at nothing to exploit the people. Overdoing it a little, she compared herself to Joan of Arc and likened Sarko to Louis XIV and that other absolute ruler (in French eyes) George Bush.   

"How can we accept that this new oligarchy, through one of its own (Sarkozy), takes over the republican state?" she asked a packed hall in central Paris last night.  "We are fighting a hard right, without principles without virtue, an arrogant right which...never varies on its aim: the defence of its privileges...."

In other words, adieu to Ségo the moderniser, admirer of Tony Blair and advocate of enterprise and bonjour to France's new Lenin. This is not a surprise, as readers of this blog might remember. In private she has always defined herself as a child of France's orthodox left. She told me in her office in Poitiers last October that she wanted to "make the capitalists frightened". That remark clashed at the time with the soft new-Socialist rhetoric of her campaign.   

The "ruling establishment" had sought to destroy her campaign with dirty tricks and skullduggery, she said last night. "Come hell or high water, I have stuck the course... I knew the battle would be hard and we haven't seen it all yet."

Royal's relaunch is an attempt to appeal to core leftwing voters and mobilise her party after her gaffes and vagueness on policy undermined the invincible aura that she earned earlier. Last year she was the new Madonna. Now she is caricatured as Bécassine, an early 20th century cartoon featuring a naive peasant girl.       

As Sarkozy has pulled ahead by up to six points in polls, many Royal sympathisers have turned towards François Bayrou, a centrist candidate who is catching up on the two main candidates ahead of the April 22 first round vote. The "third man", a regular fixture of French presidential races, is being credited with around 15 percent of first round voting intentions, compared with figures in the high 20s for Royal and low 30s for Sarkozy. The third men rarely make it. The big exception was  2002 when Jean-Marie Le Pen knocked out Lionel Jospin, the Socialist, before being defeated by Jacques Chirac. 

With the distortions of the two-round system, French voters routinely defy pollster's projections. At this stage in the 1995 campaign which he won, Chirac was being written off with about 12 percent of the vote.

While Royal may restore her momentum, she has lost credibility with the middle class centrist voters who were charmed by the novel way that she opened her campaign, reassuring voters with direct language and promises to listen. Making fun of Royal is now routine at chattering class dinner parties, even among those who cannot stand Sarko.   

In Paris on Tuesday night, she blamed the media. "Those facing me and their people in the media have already written me off," she said. "I am been accused of shortcomings and lack of strength, pilloried in squalid publications, on the frontpage of weeklies linked to those in power," she said.

The latest damaging publication is a book, out tomorrow, by Evelyne Pathouot, a former member of her parliamentary staff. Pathouot, who fell out with her former boss and now backs Sarkozy, depicts her as a selfish control freak who is mean with money.  "She is a calculating woman who is capable of crushing without pity all those who obstruct her long march to the highest post in the land, which she believes is her divine right," she says.   

The Socialist party's heavyweights have belatedly emerged to fight for the candidate that few of them wanted. Among them was a group of women politicians who signed a protest this week over what they said was the male chauvinist nature of the attacks on Royal. "They call her authoritarian, unpredictable, uncontrollable, lightweight. Since the beginning of time, this is how women have been devalued," said the 10 women, who included MPs and three former cabinet ministers.   

Royal has been cast on the defensive by Sarkozy's own attempt to counter his reputation as a hardline conservative, law enforcer and free-marketeer. On Monday, eight million viewers watched a two-hour television show in which the Interior Minister and leader of the Union for a Popular Majority displayed his new zen style as he fielded questions from an audience of voters.

A turning point for Royal's campaign could come next Sunday when she finally sets out her manifesto for the Elysée Palace. Her party elders, including François Hollande, the Socialist leader who is her domestic partner, believe that Royal made a strategic error by delaying her manifesto while she sought ideas from town meetings around the country.

    
       

Comments

[Frank Schnittger]

The key issue now for Sego is that she must stop the slide in her ratings before even second place becomes in doubt. Whatever else she must do, she cannot afford to raise the spectre of repeating Jospin's feat of failing to make it into the second round of voting.

The left will hardly recover from failing to make the second round for two elections in a row. So now she must consolidate her own party support behind her with suitable left wing noises to provide the backdrop for what needs to be a centrist manifesto if she is to have any chance of success in the second round.

However her "poor little me, they’re all out to get me" martyrdom stance won't cut much ice for very long either. It will not just be the male chauvinists who will retort that "if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen!"

Sego has done the almost impossible and blown a very substantial head start in the campaign. She did this by a succession of self inflicted gaffes and blunders which do not speak well of her own abilities or the quality of the campaign team around her.

Sarko, by contrast, has overcome the initial handicap of a lack of Chiracian endorsement with ease. He can only get stronger when Le Pen and François Bayrou are eliminated after the first round of voting.

The election is now his to lose. After early gaffes in Washington he is showing no signs of the incompetence that has beset the Sego campaign.

[dada]

i haven' seen some real self examination of the role that played the times in the launch of the irak war.

[Robert Marchenoir]

I do not think this is a turnaround.

I do not believe Ségolène Royal has ever been an admirer of Tony Blair, except probably of the worst sides of blairism: the socialist streak (cf. the NHS) and the political correctness (cf. personalities being summoned to police precincts, after saying on the radio they were not really quite sure that adoption by homosexuals was such a good idea).

[dada]

A spokesman for the British defence ministry said: "The UK's position has not changed -- we are committed to Iraq for as long as the Iraqi Government judge that the coalition is required to provide security and to assist the Iraqi Security Forces until they are able to take responsibility for their own security and the country is stabilised."

[Frank Schnittger]

Has Dada gone gaga?

[Alice]

I think Ségolène Royal is running to win -
it's possible Sarko it's more near to fascist groups (u sure know he had published a book in Italy with the prefaction of Gianfranco Fini, popular for he was a militant of MSI, italian party connected to Mussolini experience), than Royal to Lenin.

[gaga]

A group of 50 intellectuals including many French Muslims published an open letter Monday urging support for Charlie Hebdo. “Democrats the world over and especially Muslims hope to see in Europe, and above all in France, a secular haven where their words are not blocked by dictators or fundamentalists,” they said. Media rights watchdog Reporters Sans Frontieres (Reporters Without Borders) also launched a campaign under the slogan “With Charlie Hebdo, let’s refuse to shut up.”

[dada]

I remember the day that pinochet died , sarko was on tv, the journalist learned of the death of this well-loved-by-the-Church dictator; He tells the news to the minister, asking for a reaction, two to three seconds later sarko replied, and i quote: "aucune reaction".
Immediatly one of the other guests, a syndicalist, inspecteur du travail, salute the memmory of the numerous victims of this tyrant.

good day to you alice.

[Sam Young]

For a betting man like myself, it has been interesting to see how the odds have changed over time. At one point, both Sarko and Sego were at level pegging. Now he is at 1.53 and Madame is at 2.37 (Francois B is at 15.00); Chirac is at 34; and JM Le Pen at 51).

Well, i put my money on Sarko a long time ago, and i hope things continue to roll for him. Even those who don't like him must admit that he was very good on television the other night. And, indeed, it came as no surprise to people interested in politics here in France that Sego has drifted left. With the losers. Where she belongs. Fingers crossed.

[M. Fernandez, San Francisco, California]

"She is a calculating woman who is capable of crushing without pity all those who obstruct her long march to the highest post in the land, which she believes is her divine right."

Sounds like Hillary Clinton.

[christopher muir]

Having watched many videos of Sego and Sarko, I can't help but feel that she always looks lonely on the screen, even when addressing a packed house. Sarkozy, on the other hand, certainly doesn't project solitude. Perhaps Sego's strategists should have a squad of supporters seated behind her.

On the Daily Motion web site, I bumped into a cheeky, professional video advertising a GPS system. Made fairly recently, the product directs a couple of mobile thespians looking remarkably like - you guessed it! - to a common destination. Loneliness, in this case, isn't exactly the theme. This very court metrage may be telling us that all is far from lost where the French film industry is concerned.

[rocket]

Extreeemly interesting the French campaign this time around. I truly believe that the French political advisors have matured over the years and are elevating this campaiogn into an art...of mudslinging of course. Behind the scenes you know they have take their cue from American political races (mudslinging) and just added a good ol' touch of French victimization as per Sego campaign. This is not surprising if you listen to F. Hollande with his jumpy little defensive stuttering style of oratory. The blame game has always been part of the French cultural landscape and Sego is pulling it out of her hat to try to get back some points. Will it work? Wait and see. This time around, anything is possible. Secondly, what is with that plastered (figé)smile on her face. IMO, it makes her look a little "simple" I'm not surprised at her attempt to woo the more extreme elements of the left and anyway I don't believe she is even running her own campaign anymore. As Lloyd Millard Bentsen Jr would say to Sego if he were still of this planet. "Madame, you are no HIllary Clinton!"

The sFrench socialists have always had the reflex of running back towards the left when they are in doubtrather than erecting a real reform platform.

Sarko's zen is "mort de rire" and he is playing it perfectly. I think he will remain calm up to election time and then go in for the kill on the jugular. This will allow him to drive into the public the fact that he's got balls and is up to the task.

The elections are still a long way off and as the "genius" (depending on the audience of course) Jaques Séguéla from Generation Mitterand fame said the other day on the television that voters don't remember longer than 4 weeks in the past.

PS He was quoting from an American study.

Why not take a look at Bayrou. I don't know what he is offering but he looks nice and now since Galouzeau de Villepin and his white mane are out of the running, why not?

Speaking of geniuses. Has anybody seen the Superbowl commercials? I must admit that the advertisers in my country have now elevated the art of advertising stupidity and simplicity to the same level as the French have elevated the art of the exception. You can check them out on youtube

Don't think! Just BUY!

[Jean Jaures]

What a difference a few months make. Royal wants the vote of the working class and poor only when she becomes desperate from losing some of her middle class constituency. Just like Mrs. Clinton in America, who smiles before the grand Israeli colonialists and sympathizers benouncing what they want to hear, more military aid and blame/shame the Palestinians for everything.

To be a politician, il faut dancer a' beaucoup les chansons. But many more flips and flops await us between Sark the shark and regal Royal as we head into the homestretch.

[Edward Johns]

Aren't we taking this pre-election talk a little too seriously ? Any politician seeking election in any country would happily promise anything if they thought it would improve their chances, knowing very well that what they can deliver is restricted so much that one party can only deliver what any other one can!
What I find intriguing, as a newcomer to French life, is the practice of going easy on motoring offences by the police in the run up to the elections ! If this is true, then the message is presumably "vote for me and I will allow you to kill and maim (or be killed or maimed) as part of my wonderful manifesto"
How bizarre.

[Richard Black, Paris]

I'm surprised that no one (that I've seen anyway) seems to have pressed Sarkozy on his determination to deliver on his never ending list of new promises to the electorate.

His presentation is pretty good but given the French governement's record on implementing change, it's surprising no one has questionned him harder. Everytime fundamental change is proposed, (or even minor change eg. CPE work contract) the unions who represent a small minority of the population organise a few demonstrations or public service strikes and the governement capitulates.

So I wonder, the likelihood of the governement setting the abhorently unfair public sector pension schemes on the same footing as the private sector is currently close to nil. And this in a country whose "devise" is Liberté Egalité Fraternité" !!

Similarly employment contracts, similarly reform of the sécurité sociale, tax system...the French State is so timid it's too frightened to even tell people that if they want "brand name" paracetamol they should pay for it themselves. It's a disgrace that the state is prepared to pay perhaps 25 euros for a box of paracetamol (4 euros for the drug and 21 euros for a reimbursed doctor's consultation for the prescription). That's not even counting the cost of the time and money involved in processing the paperwork. Have none of the hundreds of thousands of French civil servants been able to think of a more efficient solution ?

Even though Sarkozy talks a good game, he has said nothing yet that he is prepared to adopt a Thatcher like attitude to forcing through democratically chosen change in the face of the minority public sector mob.

[rocket]

I wrote a piece on this aspect of amnesty several years back

How French Presidential Elections Kill Drivers

Legalized Anarchy

DORIS
You have no values. Your whole life, it's nihilism,
it's cynicism, it's sarcasm, and orgasm.

HARRY
Y'know, in France I could run on that slogan and win.

(Woody Allen from the film Deconstructing Harry)

At Presidential election time in France, and as every driver knows, when the election comes so does the long awaited Presidential amnesty on parking tickets and certain moving traffic violations.

Even though the amnesty today is more restrictive than in the past, it also applies to certain jail sentences, much like when one military junta takes over in a bloody coup in the Third World and liberates the prisoners.

The Presidential election period in France is a prime time to be a driver for young and old, especially, if you like driving at breakneck speed down the highway and running red lights. Also, it’s great if you are an adept at parking in bus lanes, on sidewalks and, not to forget, the famous double parking among the many other traffic violations which are possible.

Why is this a wonderful time for these kinds of drivers?

The answer is very simple and easy to understand if you are on your way to becoming dysFUNctionally French.

Repeat after me!

It’s the amnesty, stupid!

About eight months before French Presidential elections, the death rate on French roads shoots up by nearly 500 above the normal death rate for non-election years, simply because drivers know they will not be prosecuted for most moving violations. Therefore, their testosterone-charged genes can have their way with the highway at the often unfortunate expense of the innocent family who ends up as road kill.

The notorious General Charles de Gaulle, after his election as President of France, decided in the mid 1960’s to offer a carrot to the French people in the form of an amnesty for most moving and parking violations.
In spite of the fact that hundreds die needlessly because of this amnesty, no French President has thought to terminate it and this year it has become the subject of endless debate. Once the French get acquired privileges, it’s practically impossible to take them away.
It was too much of a risk with Parliamentary elections in June 2002 and as the French often think only of themselves before thinking about civics, they would most certainly not tolerate a moratorium on the amnesty.
In anticipation of this traditional amnesty granted at the election, or re-election, of the President of France, lawbreakers had been having a field day thumbing their noses at what amounts to be a practically non-existent highway patrol in the months leading up to the elections.
France, however, is not alone in this practice, lest you think that I am picking on them. Other countries which offer amnesties of this sort are Senegal and Belgium, and countries such as Morocco, Brazil, and Greece accord amnesties on national or religious occasions. In addition, Italy, Spain and Turkey offer amnesties but they are not pegged to any national event.
This amnesty linked to political events smacks of Banana Republics, I’m sorry to say, but what do I know as only an immigrant worker. These political amnesties are basically UNKNOWN in most other civilized countries because lawmakers have realized for a long time that they would simply lead to legalized anarchy.
In France, since anarchy has always been more or less legal, the majority of the public opinion doesn’t have a problem with this.
What the hell, anyway. You can throw away your parking tickets and moving violations around election time because you will have been amnestied.
It saves you some money!
Any infraction in which the driver risks losing three points off of their driver’s license, which is composed of 12, will be wiped out, even for driving without insurance coverage.
The meter maids, aubergines or egg plants as they are commonly referred to because of the color of their uniforms, quit giving out parking tickets in the months preceding the elections, so parking in the city streets, essentially, becomes free for about six months prior to elections. The only cars receiving tickets are those parked on the sidewalks or on top of the hood of your car, for lack of space.
Though, I am sure that these tickets also find their way into the “land of forgotteness.”
Parking in Paris, for instance, becomes nearly impossible because no one puts money in the meters.
Cars are left on sidewalks, crosswalks and often just turning the corner of a city street becomes an exercise in precision manoeuvring.
It’s free! No one will ticket you.
I didn’t pay for parking in this city from the Summer of 2001 to September 2002.
However, I do park only in parking zones, lest you think I am a driving anarchist.
Before the aubergines stopped giving tickets for the amnesty, most of the parking meters had been shut down and rendered unusable because of gangs of mostly Eastern European kids who formed, what I call, the “meter mafia.” They had broken into, and rendered unusable, nearly 50% of the city’s parking meters by the Summer 2001.
So if you really want to become dysFUNctionally French but you don’t yet speak the language, just remember to put that parking ticket aside if you are anywhere near within a year or so of Presidential election time.
It’s legalized anarchy!
It’s France. It’s cool.

[Sahara]

I would like to thank Charles Bremner for very interesting articles from Paris.
And just one precision.
Quote : "...Nicolas Sarkozy, the centre-right candidate".

Do you really consider N. Sarkozy as a
"centrist" ? You know that french observers underline some quite far-rightish positions of the UMP leader, for instance, when he asked for "Karcher-cleaning" of the suburbs etc.
Traditionally, Francois Bayrou is considered as "center-right".
But Sarkozy...?
Thank you.

[Frank Schnittger]

"Have none of the hundreds of thousands of French civil servants been able to think of a more efficient solution?" Posted by: Richard Black

Richard! Richard! Richard! You just don't get it do you?

I once did a presentation on organisational productivity improvements to the Secretary General of a large Government Department. I had some really good ideas about how to save a lot of money and improve the quality of service of the Department at the same time, and was very excited about the presentation.

However after a few minutes of the presentation I noticed his eyes seemed to be getting distracted. I barrelled on full of enthusiasm. After another few minutes I realised he really wasn't listening anymore, so I stopped the presentation and asked him: "Don't you think the most important objective for your department is to improve the efficiency and quality of the services you provide?"

He sat back for a moment as if he was taking a deep drag from an imaginary cigarette, and then he replied: "No. The most important objective for my department is to increase the size of our annual budget. Your presentation isn't helping".

I rest my case.

[Marc de Berner]

Further to Robert Blacks coment on the resistance to change in France..
In my opinion the reason why Sarko chose to be interior minister rather than prime minister is because he understands that he is going to need the police on his side. In france change is stoped by violent street politics.. Sarko will have to use the police to break up the protests that will come, in a simular way that Thatcher used the police in the early 80's..
It will be great to see a big bonfire of all the red flags in Republique or Denfert Rochereau