The boys and girls on the bus

Nothing beats a private chat when it comes to sizing up a presidential candidate. I have just had a 90 minute session with François Bayrou, the man of the moment in the French presidential race. Well, it wasn't quite private. My colleague from the Financial Times was also on the small plane taking us on a trip to the southwest but we got the feeling that Bayrou really opened up. Here's my newspaper report and more on Bayrou in a minute.

But first a few thoughts about about the rituals that we follow in elections and how the media shape the results.

Bayrou has scored points by attacking the way that the media neglected him and others by casting the campaign as a two-horse race, between Royal and Sarkozy. This is dictated by the interests of the industrialists who own the non-public media and are close to the big parties, he says. His chief target is TF1 television, the dominant network, which is controlled by Martin Bouygues, a friend of Sarkozy.

Control over the French mediascape is nothing in comparison with Putin's Russia and Berlusconi's Italy. Bayrou does have a point but I think the dynamics of election cover are more haphazard than he says.

I have reported campaigns big and small, democratic or otherwise, in quite a few countries, including the USA, South and Central America, Soviet Russia and east and west Europe. US and French presidential campaigns are great theatre and fun to cover because they are about one person in quest of ultimate power. Mayoral contests in big cities like New York, Chicago or Marseilles are good too.

But the media approach to all campaigns is much the same. They relay images and accounts of candidates in contact with the people and report on the chemistry. Big debates and TV appearances puncuate the timeline, but the rhythm comes from the pack travelling with the politicians.

The gang used to be called The Boys on the Bus, the title of Timothy Crouse's classic book on the 1972 US campaign. Things have changed a lot since those carefree days. In 1960, John F Kennedy knocked around the country in complicity with a bunch of friendly reporters. Now big campaigns are tightly controlled, with scripted appearances and candidates keeping a safe distance from the travelling circus.

The wrong remark to the gang in the back of the bus or plane can be fatal. Lionel Jospin, the French Socialist, illustrated this when he told reporters on his  plane "off the record" that he thought President Chirac was too old and tired for re-election in 2002. His uncharitable words helped kill his own presidential chances. Off-the-record no longer exists in theory, though French candidates still feed their friends (especially girlfriends) the inside story. 

Tracking the candidates and their public daily, the media pack still sets the tone. They feel the mood and create the buzz -- the famous traction or momentum when it comes. The opinion polls respond in turn.

Ségolène Royal owed her rise to skilful handling of  the media last year but the boys and girls on the bus turned against her in January. As her public appearances became strained, her charm evaporated. She annoyed the travelling pack by trying to order them around, setting rules about pictures and telling off reporters who displeased her. She is now compensating with her direct appeal to the people via televison without interviewers. Last Monday's compassion fiesta with ordinary voters was the biggest example so far. Sarko, who is still Interior Minister, runs a tighter ship and he still has the respect of the reporters in his caravan.

Bayrou's operation is in comparison tiny. This makes it possible to have the valuable face-to-face time. I have chatted with Bayrou before, but things are always different when someone is within reach of high office. He is still amiable but he has acquired the gravity that comes with imagining yourself on France's republican throne.

I was impressed by Bayrou's articulate handling of both the big picture and detail -- more Sarko than Ségo on that front. But it is hard to see this likeable and very reasonable man firing the crowds in the final straight of the presidential race. 

Being up close lets you gauge that critical X-factor of leadership. Does this person have the charisma, authority, calibre, gravitas, character, whatever you call it, that qualifies them for the top job? You often recognise it instantly. In my humble experience, a couple of minutes was enough to sense the star power of Bill Clinton, Mikhail Gorbachev, the late President François Mitterrand, Tony Blair (in the early days), Margaret Thatcher and yes, Jacques Chirac.

There is not a lot of such magnetism around in this French campaign. Sarkozy, with his small stature and high intensity, has it most. He also has a slightly worrying side, though nothing like the high octane sense of menace that is exuded by Jean-Marie Le Pen. Royal, for all her very telegenic looks and style, conveys nothing like Sarkozy's sense of mission. A lot of people think that France would be better off with the mild Royal or Bayrou than the ultra-driven Sarkozy. But the presidency of the Fifth Republic, with its near absolute power, was created in 1958 expressly for a strongman -- Charles de Gaulle. De Gaulle, crusty and imperious, never gave personal interviews and never had to campaign with the boys in the bus. I doubt that he would have got far with today's campaign scrutiny and the need to flatter the television viewers.   

Comments

[Maggie G]

I found this posting very interesting. I did not realize that the 'boys on the bus' had such influence in the perception of the candidate, and I had not heard before all those details about how poorly Royal did in this aspect of the campaign. I also find it amazing that Jospin could have suffered so much for such tame remarks about Chirac.

What about the comedians? How much do they create or reflect the 'buzz' surrounding a candidate?

I never get to see the Guignols on TV, but I hear Nicholas Cantaloup every morning on Europe 1 'doing' all the candidates. He is so hilarious, except for his Bayrou, who always comes across as pretty dull. He has him endlessly saying, "A un coté il y a le droit. A l'autre coté il y a le gauche. Et entre les deux il y a le centre." I keep wondering why he makes Bayrou so boring -- does he do it on purpose, or is it just that up to now Bayrou has been too much in the shadows to give creative inspiration?

I only remember laughing at Cantaloup's Bayrou once, and that was the day the new smoking rules came into effect, and he had him saying, "A un coté il y a les gens qui fument. A l'autre coté il y a les gens qui ne fument pas. Et entre les deux il y a ...." And I can't remember how it ended -- was it "In the middle are the people who don't inhale", or was it something else, or did they fade him out?

Now that Bayrou is becoming more important, I keep hoping that Cantaloup will make him a little funnier and more interesting.

How is Bayrou portrayed in the Guignols? And can we learn anything about the election campaign from these portrayals?

[Robert Marchenoir]

Nice hat, Charles.

Any chances of getting some unnecessary details about "girlfriends"?

[rocket]

Unfortunately the boys on the bus are all powerful and they can swing an election. Unfortuantely Charles writes in English so only English people read him and a handful of French. The French are all prostrate in front of a Segolene that goes over and touches a handicapped gentlemen and picks up 5 points in the polls and Nikky drops 5. May I use the word sheep without being too anti conformist. Bayrou intests me. Sarkozy the great friend of America and Britain, will definitely change if he gets elected.

please see my post

http://tinyurl.com/35bbph

Well there goes my citizenship request in France!

The question is who cares.

I work with many foreign companies that have factories in france so I am privy to the famous French efficiency viewed by foreigners that have heavily invested in factories in France. And as a consultant my advice is to always stroke their fur in the "direction du poil" until they can get out and move east which they are doing at a rate that you cannot imagine.

[christopher muir]

Bayrou has a point about TF1. Today, his name is not to be found on their video news web site. Other politicians - past and present, including Le Pen - are well covered by video clips. If the oversight is deliberate it isn't very subtle.

[Helen]

I don't think 'charisma' and 'magnetism' are very relevant criteria when it comes to choosing a ruler.
This country needs a president that will set out to solve some of the problems, not a snake-oil seller or a charlatan.
Hitler and Mussolini had lots of charisma.

[Philip]

Interesting though all this is, the real problem is the impossible equation betweren the directly proportional presidential system and the non-proportional parliamentary system (thanks to De Gaulle's hostility to parties). In this respect Bayrou is an emperor with no clothes. Few of the presidential candidates have a proper electable party behind them. Many of Bayrou's 'friends' are abandoning him. Bayrou is simply a construction of the media and intellectuals who perversely want destroy their own natural side by condescension(Marianne, Philippe Meyer)!.
The past of Bayrou shows him to be a very passive politician (weak Minister of Education).
Paradoxically a latent anti-feminist attitude in the press still seems to treat Ségolène Royal as an 'idiot'. That surely must be a problem for the objectivity of the press, because it does influence public opinion. Sarkozy for the time being seems to be getting away with murder.

[Firozali A. Mulla MBA PhD]

The boys and girls on the bus
Mr.Charles Bremner. When I saw the headlines I wanted to read the story of “What is the matter now with the boys and girls on the bus or in the bus or under the bus. To my astonishments, I think we are from the same mental hospital. The story talks about another story and the picture is of Charlie Chaplin brother using 1932 IBM typewriter. So where are the boys and girls?.. Nothing beats a private chat when it comes to sizing up a presidential candidate. I agree but this the world of IT you know Email. Or chat with gmail or yahoo or man. Why hold the politicians and talk to him. They lie plenty.
Can you give me the bus back please thank you. You are very kind. Stick to the headlines. The Boys on the Bus, the title of Timothy Crouse's classic book on the 1972 US campaign. Things have changed a lot since those carefree days. In 1960, John F Kennedy knocked around the country in complicity with a bunch of friendly reporters. Now big campaigns are tightly controlled, with scripted appearances and candidates keeping a safe distance from the travelling circus.
Leakages from CIA too many you know