Best wishes from Chirac

For the 12th and certainly last time, Jacques Chirac offers his New Year wishes to France tonight. We know what he will not say: that he is retiring next May. Aged 74 and rounding off an astonishing 37-year run in high office, the President will give an upbeat talk on the future and barely mention the spring elections. He will also avoid any review of his very rocky 12 years in power.

François Mitterrand used his final television voeux in December 1994 to confirm that he was making way for others, but the Gaulllist President is determined to prolong the non-suspense about his intentions. He is expected to wait until February or even March to announce that he will not run for a third term in the April vote. No-one believes that he will run again. His aim is to muddy the pitch for Nicolas Sarkozy. Chirac's bête noire and centre-right candidate is to be officially endorsed by his party, the Union for a Popular Majority, on January 14.

In the meantime, here is a brief balance sheet of les années Chirac. The failures since 1995 far outweigh the successes.

Achievements:

-- Strong leadership of France abroad. Despite his abysmal ratings, the French still give him high marks for his role as world statesman. Popular for standing up to USA.

-- His seizure of moral high ground against 2003 US invasion of Iraq. His predictions have proved right: the invasion would provoke chaos, strengthen Al Qaeda and weaken the USA and west. His aggressive opposition was seen by US and its allies as opportunistic and unfriendly, but it earned  respect for Chirac and France.

-- Bringing France to face shameful episodes in its past, notably its wartime collaboration with the Nazis in the deportation and massacre of Jews.

-- Consistent opponent of racism and political extremism. Support for human rights and protection of the environment.

-- A campaign for road safety that has forced France to drive a little less recklessly and saved several thousand lives.

-- Defied strong opposition from the public and his own party and supported future Turkish membership of European Union. 

-- Despite redoubtable failures over two terms as Prime Minister and 12 years as President, he still enjoys a degree of public affection as a sympathique fellow.

Failures:

-- No attempt to convince France of the need of deep economic, social and psychological reform to cope with globalisation.

-- Surrender of all but minor reforms in the face of resistance from affected sectors.

-- Presided over relative economic decline of France.

-- Failed to fulfil 1995 campaign pledge to heal France's "Social fracture". Social unrest now greater than ever.

--  Public distaste for political class greater than ever thanks to Chirac's failure to deliver on promises and his own reputation for sleaze.

-- Ill-advised decision to call early parliamentary election in 1997. This put Socialists in Government, led to 35-hour working week and five years of paralysing "cohabitation" with Chirac's opposition.

-- Ill-advised decision to call referendum in 2005 on French-drafted European Constitution. Voters' rejection sabotaged Union reform and hammered image of France. 

-- Antagonised pro-US new eastern members of the Union by treating them with contempt.

-- Blocked real reform of disastrous European Common Agriculture policy.

I'm sure that I have missed out entries in both columns. Let's hear some suggestions.

Happy New Year to everyone. Thank you for taking time to read this blog and for all the stimulating contributions -- especially from the regulars. I won't list names in case I leave anyone out, but merci beaucoup. One resolution is to try to respond more often. It's a question of time and keeping the day job going. It's going to be a fun season, with the most interesting presidential campaign since 1981, when Mitterrand took the Left to power after decades of conservative rule. 

------

In the meantime, here is a picture from the past that appeared in the papers today and which Chirac would no doubt prefer to forget. It was 1976 and he was Prime Minister when he dropped in on France's friend at the time in Baghdad.

   
 

Comments

[Frank Schnittger]

And a happy new year to you too, Charles! May you continue to scoop the front pages!

Was Saddam really so much taller than Chirac or did he deliberately put Chirac sitting on a much lower chair? Chirac looks like some accountant advising the main man! (Cue irate comments from accountants!)

Amongst Chirac's achievements I would put the maintenance of the strong Franco-German relationship and a generally positive contribution to the development and enlargement of the EU - despite the debacle over the constitutional referendum.

The importance of presenting an alternative to the neo-conservative project in the US should also not be under-estimated, particularly because of the abject failure of Blair to exercise real influence and leadership with the US.

His biggest failure was probably to avoid all confrontation with the powerful vested interests who now rule France in their own narrow sectional interests. He is greatly condemned for this now, but would he have had strong popular support if he had taken on the Public sector unions resulting in prolonged strikes and economic paralysis? I somehow doubt it. Those who shout loudest for reform are often the quickest to complain when their own immediate and direct interests are damaged.

Like Mitterrand, he will go at a low point in the affections of his people. Perhaps he outstayed his welcome. However history may judge him more kindly if his successors end up being no more successful at achieving public service and economic reform.

At this stage it is difficult to see either Sego or Sarko being much more effective as President, whilst Le Pen would b just pathetic. I Hope this doesn't upset all my French friends too much!

[Maggie G]

Happy New Year to you too, Mr Bremner, and to all the people who have contributed to make this such an interesting blog.

One thing you missed about Chirac was that he was great when we won the World Cup. It's true, he is 'très sympathique' in certain roles. He enthusiasm and joy when we won in 98 was heartwarming, and this year, when we lost, his warm welcome to the team the next day impressed me too.

I remember also how proud he was to announce that he had become a grandfather.

[razatork]

In achievements, you forgot he succeeded in never meeting with juges, despite is numerous shady businesses. Yeah it's ironic, still, he's not in jail, that's big success don't you think.

Ooooh you meant professional achievements, right, sorry, my bad.

[Tom Livingston]

Great Blog Charles - May it long continue.

Infuriating though Chirac's intransigence over the dreaded CAG has been to us, he remembers that a politician's first loyalty is to his countrymen - would that we had a few like him.
It's surprising that the French farmers don't support him more for protecting them so well though.

Happy New Year, and please write more soon.

[christopher muir]

Looking forward, as always, to Charles' astute writings over the coming year and all the ensuing blogs. Should Sarkozy win the election, it's interesting to ponder how Chirac will cope with the daily spectacle of some of his pet policies being changed or torn apart by a younger rival. A lengthy career in politics isn't for the faint-hearted. And a president's retirement could be extremely frustrating. Possibly Chirac is well prepared and will be philosophical, recognising that his time as a leader is over. He may even appear to be relaxed whenever appearing in public. But behind the scenes? Methinks much thunder will be heard.

[william rees]

I think Chirac also screwed up on Iraq by not supporting the UK and USA in the UN.Was it due to Saddam favoring TOTAL on oil supplies ie the CEO of Total is under arrest for corruption in the Oil for Food swindle.

[Donald DuBois]

France's position on invasion of Iraq was "seizing the moral high ground"?

Almost as soon as the guns went silent after the first Gulf war in 1991, French oil giants Total SA and Elf Aquitaine sought a competitive advantage over their rivals in Iraq by negotiating exclusive production-sharing contracts with Saddam's regime. that were intended to give them a stranglehold on Iraq's future oil production for decades to come.
Speaking in Vienna, al-Habobi, Iraq oil minister, confirmed that his government was awarding French oil company Total SA rights to the future production of the Nahr Umar oil field in southern Iraq, and that another company, Elf, was well-placed to be awarded similar terms in the Majnoon oil fields on the border with Iran. The quid pro quo was that France would side with Iraq in the lifting of U.N. sanctions on Iraq.
The main bank for the highly corrupt Oil for Food program – that reached up to the highest levels of the United Nations, BNP Paribas, is headquartered in Paris. It was not in France’s interest to look too closely at the billions of euros that were going through this bank in the name of feeding the poor in Iraq.

One could have no clearer example of France currying favor with Saddam than to note that in 1996 France withdrew its fighter jets from patrolling with the Americans and British the northern no-fly zone in Iraq and, in 1998, withdrew from helping to patrol the southern no-fly zone. These two no-fly zones were purely humanitarian in nature – to keep Saddam from slaughtering the Kurds in the north and the Shiites in the south. Saddam railed against these no-fly zones and was only too happy to have France withdraw from the coalition. How can all this be considered the “moral high ground”?

[Sandrine]

Hello Charles,
I just wanted to wish you a happy new year. I hope you'll continue your blog which I find -as you know- very very interesting. I don't have enough time to comment here as I used to, but I still come sometimes to read your posts.

[Valentin]

Happy New Year, Charles, and everybody ! Keep the blog going !

We might add to Chirac's "bilan" the relentless support for Europe as a stronger entity, economically and politically. Despite the failures on the CAP, which is a genuine scarecrow for any French politician, and on the referendum (school example of a political error), and despite the deep division on Iraq (thanks to our american friends, who would nearly provoke a split of the EU while for instance support Turkey in - but hey, we're not here to talk US foreign policy's coherence...); still, the Union is stronger and the introduction of the Euro has been a success. Since it happened in 2002, I would count it on Chirac's white list.

The needed economical reforms were indeed for the most part not done. On the other hand, maybe this is the way: put the same issues on over and over again, fail (like Villepin on the CPE), and raise them again (as Sarkozy does), until the society as a whole, unions, media etc. start to change perspective, stop fearing globalization and flexibilization, stop waiting for everything from the State. This is a long process, and 10 years are probably not enough, and without excusing Chirac (who in my view is plutot de centre-gauche), it does take many failures to get there.

[Peter Newman-Legros]

We all commented how much better Chirac looks now than he did 12 years ago. Something about being president (apart from the enormous salary) must be agreeing with him. What is it about the egos of the political elite that make them seemingly unaware of the reality of life for the "homme dans la rue"? They may have done away with the monarchy 200 odd years ago but somehow diffidence and obeyance continues towards those who govern however appallingly. I am glad in many ways I cannot vote for the next president as there is not one candidate who embodies every competence, skills and experience that will be needed to shake France from its complacent lethargy. Why Chirac does not have the grace and stature to announce he will not be running again and why MAM continues to be delusional about both her chances of success or more likely of derailing Sarko with her "très envie" to put herself forward. Do the polls get it THAT wrong! Vive la révolution!!

[Kevin]

I arrived in France in 1995 and remember 'celebrating' Chirac's election victory on the Champs Elysees with thousands of other French citizens. I had never seen such an event as being from the UK elections came and went with little public interest.

Twelve years later I am still based in Paris and have subsequently married into French family life. If cannot judge Chirac against any other French President, however I can compare his leadership over the past twelve years to that of a certain Mr.Blair who is entering his 10th year as Prime Minister.

I think Chirac's biggest achievement has been to stop France (and the French way of life) succumbing to the globalisation... one could say Americanisation[sic] of society in a way that Blair has failed to do for the UK.

- His stand against the US over Iraq was brave and is proving to be correct.

- He has lowered taxes more then most people give him credit for...composite tax rates in the UK and France are now very similar.

- Words such as 'stealth' and 'spin' have been largely absent from the political agenda as opposed to dominating that in Westminster.

- The health system remains intact, the transport infrastructure has continued to be upgraded and we do not live in a society ruled by lawsuits unlike the US and increasingly the UK.

For all of his 'failed' reforms one must remember that when his/his party's proposals were unpopular with public opinion they were either tempered down or forgotten completely. Some critics will call him weak, I would prefer to say that he still listens to public opinion before implementing new policies and should be admired for that. When has Tony Blair ever listened to public opinion?

Chirac may go down in history as being 'sympathique' which is effectively the equivalent of 'nice,' not exactly a compliment. However I think that he has been a great 'Frenchman' and has respected his own population as well as that of the French nation on an international basis. Whoever succeeds him will face the same problems domestically and I doubt will make much progress (see the softening of Sarkozy in recent months). Their challenge will be to replace Statesman Chirac. That will be a much harder challenge.

[john gregory Flinn]

I would also like to wish our host, Mr Bremner and all other 'posters' the best 'voeux' for 2007.

I thought President Chirac's new year's address seemed to reflect a wish to distance himself from common politics, his (growing) social conscience typically with the commitment about social housing and his vision of the opportunities in technology - aspects which he himself has promoted as you have reported.
His recent overtures to Russia may prove to be significant.

I would'nt say his decision to call a referendum on the proposed EU constitution was ill-advised; he did'nt get the answer he expected because the French and Dutch voter responded to a different question! A question that seems to probe the 'modus vivendi' of the EU - from within its heart!
It's a little early to see what effects will transpire, the EU has to digest the new entrants first. But one does seem to be emerging - to consider a limit to the number of nations who may join the EU.

His decision to call a French referendum for Turkish entry may be similar, although we have too wait to see it legislated for first.

I wonder if he is becoming ambivalent about the EU - if France with its docile partner Germany cannot achieve hegemony in Europe, then the EU project - in M. Chirac's view - may need rethinking.

[sacha wilson]

Dear Mr Bremner
Happy New Year to you. I have really enjoyed your blog this year. Thank you.

p.s. How do you say 'sleaze' in french?

[Adrienhb]

Happy nouvelle année!

He is indeed sympa, but he is not from our time anymore. Politicians such as him must leave...

A.

[Richard Huxley]

Bonnee Annee

I moved to france 6 months ago from stoke on trent in Staffordshire. I'm 28yrs old and have a french girlfriend.

We moved to Strasbourg in the east and have loved every minute. I even created a company...not an easy thing but getting easier.

We've had both frustration and admiration for a french system that seems to have great potential.

It seems to be the opposite of england when it comes to everything but finance/economy...better quality of life and social care etc.

If anything it just needs to add more incentives to help creation of new jobs and enterprise. Its weird because the students demand protection and welfare but its this same leftist system that is keeping them from finding jobs and earning above SMIC (min wage). I hope things will take a turn for the better...but i suppose people here have been saying that for many years!

Nice blog...would love to contribute and learn more!

Regards

Richard

[Nick]

Interesting to read all the comments on Chirac. I am a French citizen living in the US for 40 years now. (I would have become a US citizen, but the americans want me to basically forsake and renounce all the French in me, allegiance, my citizenship, etc... just couldn't do that.... can't one love 2 countries at the same time?)

Anyway, now France has elected a new President. I was torn at the voting booth. My heart was with Sego, but my brain was with Sarko. I voted with my brain and I hope that I won't regret it.

France does need to change certain policies in order to be in step with it's neighbors and to improve its competitiveness. One area is certainly the ability for companies and businesses to be able to hire and fire when needed without going through hoops in doing it. It does need to make some reforms in certain social programs that are too easily abused, i.e. unemployment benefits (gives no incentive to get a job). But she also needs to do these things delicately so as not to cause other problems as a result of weakening the social structure. As an example, reforms are great but if such reforms create an increase in the poverty level for example, that problem may become a greater problem than the reforms are trying to correct. France has one of the lowest poverty levels in the industrialized world (US 15%, UK 14%, France less than 7.5% 2006 data). One must admit that certain reforms in the UK have hurt segments of society, creating a larger disparity between the top 10 percent and the bottom 25 percent, deteriorating healthcare system and education system, as well as an increase in the poverty level. The US has seen similar results the past 6 years, healthcare unaffordable to the poor, deteriorating primary and secondary education, poverty level increased since the end of the Clinton era, now with 20 percent of children actually in poverty or going to bed hungry.

The French love to complain about what's happening in their country. But when change is suggested, they seem to back off. Maybe it's possible that they kinda want to hang onto what they have, that it's maybe not that bad afterall. Maybe the concentration should be put on the 600,000 or so that really abuse the system or take advantage of it. Sarkozy's proposed changes may actually target those individuals without much pain to the rest of the population.

I hear and read that France is so doom and gloom as some people have suggested. Let's look at some facts. According to the WHO, she has the best healthcare system in the world, her productivity per MAN HOUR is higher than that of the US (the US bases theirs on per person), only the US and Japan have more corporations listed on the Fortune 500 biggest companies, she is one of the most attractive countries for foreign investment, has considerably less external debt than the US and UK, is currently bringing down unemployment, will grow it's economy by at least 2.5 percent this year and probably over 3 percent next year, live longer than nearly any other country on earth, still attract nearly 80 million tourists a year, and last year overtook the US in the most favored destination for assylum seekers. In retrospect, I think the French generally love their way of life. As a footnote, last year, I met 3 French citizens in their late 20's that had decided to move to my city on the west coast of the US. They didn't know one another but decided to come here and work. Within 6 months all 3 of them had moved back to France. I was able to contact one of them. He told me that it was a nice experience but missed France. He said that what he had given up by coming here was greater than what he had gained, so back to France he went.

Let's hope that Sarkozy will concentrate on fixing the things that aren't working properly and not tinker with the things that are not broken. From what I've read so far since his election, I like.

Finally, Chirac is the last of a breed. I remember him as Mayor of Paris. Through the years I've admired him and from time to time cringed at some of his blunders. I think history will treat him kindly and he will be remembered as a fierce defender of the French society, proud of France and to be French, and one of it's great statesmen. Whatever he did for right or wrong in the eyes of others, he did for the best interests of France. Isn't that what all world leaders do... for their country? That is not a fault.

Happy belated New Year to all !