A woman takes on Sarkozy

Imagine a race for the French presidency that turns into a duel between two women. That is the dream of Michèle Alliot-Marie, Defence Minister and the most powerful woman in the French Government.

MAM as she is known,  believes that she would do a better job than Nicolas Sarkozy, the Interior Minister, at beating Ségolène Royal, the Socialist, next spring. The match would be interesting: charismatic feminist versus tough female Gaullist.  Today Alliot-Marie, 60, gets her chance to put her case to the 300,000 members of the Union for a Popular Majority (UMP), the ruling centre-right party which is led by Sarko.

The pair are holding the first of three primary debates -- of a sort -- this afternoon and you can put your own questions to them. Loic Le Meur, France's star blogger and Sarkozy supporter, is moderating questions from the internet at the debate at La Défense, just outside Paris, from 4.30 pm (1530GMT). on Forum-ump.org. Watch the debate live on the internet.

I would put "debate" in quote marks because the exercise is a bit of a sham. Sarkozy has had the nomination sewn up for himself for the past two years but he has been forced by Alliot-Marie's obstinacy and Royal's success to go through the motions of a primary. The winner is to be decided on January 14 and there is little chance that Sarkozy will be unseated.

Alliot-Marie, a former Gaullist-party leader, has yet to throw her hat into the ring formally, but she has been campaigning doggedly for months against the supremacy of the Interior Minister and party chief.

Royal's spectacular rise has helped MAM to position herself as the softer and more voter-friendly face of the ruling party. "Ségolène Royal's nomination has made things more complicated for the men," she said the other day. "You don't treat a female adversary as you treat another man."   

MAM's prospects are of beating Sarkozy are remote. Sarkozy, 51, remains the strong favourite with polls giving him about 85 percent backing in the party. Anger over Alliot-Marie's spoiling campaign led UMP activists to jeer her at a party congress in Paris last month.

The stern but elegant Defence Minister has used increasing public support to force Sarkozy into accepting a contest. If she runs formally and does well, she would become a strong candidate for a high post in the administration of a President Sarkozy.

The UMP has tried to turn her challenge into a virtue, emulating the Socialists' much-admired internal contest by staging three debates at which  Sarkozy will be challenged.

Alliot-Marie enjoys the approval of 54 percent of the French compared with 60 percent for Sarkozy's 60 percent and Royal's 69 percent.

The Sarkozy team has been more worried by harrassment from Dominique de Villepin, 53, the Prime Minister and protege of President Chirac, who has been doing his best to undermine the UMP chief. De Villepin also indicated this week that he would fall into line behind Sarkozy if he is endorsed. 

Alliot-Marie, used to be seen as an over-promoted protegee of Chirac, who once called her "the finest pair of legs in the Cabinet". But she proved her mettle by defying Chirac's wishes in 1999 and winning election to the leadership of his Gaullist party, now the UMP.  The Chirac team dream of scuppering  Sarko's coronation as party candidate in January, but they have not thrown their weight behind Alliot-Marie. They think that her challenge is weak so will only reinforce Sarkozy.   

As Minister since 2002, she has earned the loyalty of the armed forces by fighting their cause in the budget, dropping in to visit special forces in trouble spots and even parachuting with them. The standard compliment towards her in the military is: "She has balls".

Alliot-Marie refuses to call herself a feminist. She has insisted on retaining the old-fashioned title of Madame Le Ministre rather than the feminised La Ministre. She wants a "gender neutral" campaign while Royal has made her sex her chief campaign weapon.

But the pair have in common a determination and brisk style that the men around them see as bossy and "psycho-rigide", to use a useful French expression. Both are provincials. Both have refused compromise in their struggle to the top of a very male-dominated political world. Both have long-standing domestic partners who are colleagues and whom they have never married. Royal however has four children and MAM has none. Alliot's companion,  Patrick Ollier, a senior UMP parliamentarian, is her campaign manager. Royal's is François Hollande, the party leader.

Alliot-Marie wants to fight Royal with a humane Gaullist project "in combat against the manifesto of Royal, which is out-of-date and dangerous for France," she says. 

She wants the UMP to abandon Sarkozy's radical manifesto for une rupture, a break with the past which disowns the record of the Chirac administration. She also opposes the hard line law-and-order policies that have turned Sarko into a hate figure for the country's disaffected young.

The UMP debates will have none of the intensity of Ségo's showdown with the party barons in the Socialists' primary, but they should offer some entertainment. Sarkozy hates being challenged so he may well lose his cool. 

Comments

[Frank Schnittger]

At least it shows that French democracy is alive and well. Sarkozy and Royal may both come from the establishment and yet claim to be running against it. Here is a candidate who seems to be unashamed about being part of it.

I suspect she has left it much too late to be an effective challenger, but at least her presence will add to the optics and give the impression of democracy and debate within the UMP. Sarkozy can only emerge the stronger if he wins with a certain grace and style. He has no need to get "down and dirty" and will only damage himself if he does.

The debate itself will give valuable airtime to the UMP and help counteract the media dominance that the Socialist Party has recently achieved. It will also give the French people the sense that there are many options other than Le Pen.

But bottom line, not much has changed. Sego is still favourite to beet Sarko by a small margin, with Le Pen a distant third. (Or at least that is how this Irish Jury sees it!)

[John Hornsby]

"A woman with balls or a crowing hen is neither good to God nor men."

[christopher muir]

Frank Schnittger is courageously predicting the French election result. I wonder how much le sex appeal will influence the male voters. Having recently watched an alluring video clip of the splendid Emmanuelle Beart supporting a certain style of lingerie, I think that I would vote for her as president if I had the choice. Beautiful, compassionate but headstrong, an intelligent and articulate mother - what else can a country ask of a leader? But I recall some wise lines of Irish poetry that may loosely apply to France’s female candidate(s) next year. The following words are those of William Butler Yeats:

Never give all the heart, for love
Will hardly seem worth thinking of
To passionate women if it seem
Certain, and they never dream
That it fades out from kiss to kiss
For everything that's lovely is
But a brief, dreamy kind delight.

[Michel R - Paris]

According to the Journal du Dimanche, this Forum of the UMP party has been a "funeral mass" for Michèle Alliot-Marie: she just failed to be heard and present an original ovice among the party. Her candidacy is now more than unlikely, and it is not at all certain that she will go to the other forums in Lyon and Bordeaux... Sarkozy "en route to his destiny", as Paris Match put it.

[M. Fernandez]

Well, I don't know about French democracy, but the candidates are certainly easy on the eyes. Maybe it's a fashion show. Good luck to all (and if they slip into a pit of mud and rip each other's clothes off, C'est la vie!)

[Robert Marchenoir]

Emmanuelle Béart over Ségolène Royal? Anytime. Er... I mean, no, not for president. That would be unwise. Regretfully, because the 8 o'clock news would be so much more watchable, but still...

[Sarah Hague]

My eyes are drawn by morbid fascination to her teeth. She is no recommendation for her dentist!

[peadar o paris]

If you want recommendations for a dentist - try Edith Cresson! She'll point you in the right direction...

[Rosie]

These comments have been invaluable to me as is this whole site. I thank you for your comment.